How much do you vary staking level

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to75ne
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stueytrader wrote:
Sun Jul 15, 2018 10:39 am
Dallas wrote:
Sun Jul 15, 2018 10:24 am
stueytrader wrote:
Sun Jul 15, 2018 12:18 am
So, mostly the liquidity seems the biggest criteria for upping or downing staking from the replies above.

I can see that the amount the market can take is a good issue to consider, though possibly would anyone ever consider that putting a larger amount is a positive? E.g. moving a market into a position you wanted. I realise that comes under the 'spoofing' area of trading of course.
A general rule of thumb is watching the next three prices behind you and if the stake you're about to use exceeds whats available at these then you have a problem if you need to get out quickly without taking a bigger loss than needed
I do get the points about needing sufficient liquidity to make the exit, I agree. Though that does sort of suggest that the entire concept of spoofing/manipulation would never work in any market, so is that true....?
spoofing can only work well if the participants in the market dont know or realise there is an attempt going on to spoof it.

if they can spot it, it can be exploited, or treated as noise (depending on various factors as to which).
stueytrader
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Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2015 6:47 pm

I may have slightly moved this discussion away into a discussion about market manipulation, so I do take onboard those points certainly about that aspect of staking. However, can anyone say how much (without specific amounts, if talking actual amounts is slightly rude :) ) they actually vary their staking in across the markets - I mean are we talking large differences or rather small changes in your staking planning?

I vary currently from my smallest (let's call it 1 unit) to my largest (about 4.5 units) in my staking planning at the moment. Is that a large variation for others or small?

And are there any times when you feel an opportunity is so good you would risk breaking your normal staking planning entirely (a dangerous area I know)?
spreadbetting
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stueytrader wrote:
Sun Jul 15, 2018 12:14 pm
I vary currently from my smallest (let's call it 1 unit) to my largest (about 4.5 units) in my staking planning at the moment. Is that a large variation for others or small?

And are there any times when you feel an opportunity is so good you would risk breaking your normal staking planning entirely (a dangerous area I know)?
You should simply be staking what you're comfortable with, I vary my stakes very rarely and usually bet up to a liability if laying first. There's always another market and if something looks too good to be true there's usually a sting in the tail from my experience.
CallumPerry
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Location: Wolverhampton

Has anybody explored varying EVERY ONE of their stakes based on the Kelly Criteria? Say I have a formula that calculates how confident I am on a move happening soon (0-100%) and I have a trigger on i.e. 60% I think the price is likely to drift soon then you'd use 0.6 in the Kelly criteria to calculate your stake. Maybe you have a few triggers at 0.7 and 0.8 and 0.9 too.

Or do people just use the Kelly Criteria to scale up their total stake unit size every so often when their total pot builds? Interested to know people's thoughts.
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to75ne
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CallumPerry wrote:
Sun Jul 15, 2018 12:56 pm
Has anybody explored varying EVERY ONE of their stakes based on the Kelly Criteria? Say I have a formula that calculates how confident I am on a move happening soon (0-100%) and I have a trigger on i.e. 60% I think the price is likely to drift soon then you'd use 0.6 in the Kelly criteria to calculate your stake. Maybe you have a few triggers at 0.7 and 0.8 and 0.9 too.

Or do people just use the Kelly Criteria to scale up their total stake unit size every so often when their total pot builds? Interested to know people's thoughts.
that sounds like an awfully complex way of staking.

reading various posts on the this forum lately, seems that complexity seems to be the fashion now in trading (with tons of graphs to)
stueytrader
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Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2015 6:47 pm

CallumPerry wrote:
Sun Jul 15, 2018 12:56 pm
Has anybody explored varying EVERY ONE of their stakes based on the Kelly Criteria? Say I have a formula that calculates how confident I am on a move happening soon (0-100%) and I have a trigger on i.e. 60% I think the price is likely to drift soon then you'd use 0.6 in the Kelly criteria to calculate your stake. Maybe you have a few triggers at 0.7 and 0.8 and 0.9 too.

Or do people just use the Kelly Criteria to scale up their total stake unit size every so often when their total pot builds? Interested to know people's thoughts.
Personally, the latter to some degree. I have recently increased all of my stakes slightly due to a larger bank (partly the reason I posted this).
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Derek27
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CallumPerry wrote:
Sun Jul 15, 2018 12:56 pm
Has anybody explored varying EVERY ONE of their stakes based on the Kelly Criteria? Say I have a formula that calculates how confident I am on a move happening soon (0-100%) and I have a trigger on i.e. 60% I think the price is likely to drift soon then you'd use 0.6 in the Kelly criteria to calculate your stake. Maybe you have a few triggers at 0.7 and 0.8 and 0.9 too.

Or do people just use the Kelly Criteria to scale up their total stake unit size every so often when their total pot builds? Interested to know people's thoughts.
Not sure if Kelly criterium is applicable to trading and if it is, who's got time to calculate it in a fast moving market?
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