Number Crunching After Capturing and Sorting.

[ShaunWhite]

I'll send you an idea for you to test on your sheets - & you tell me if it isn't an edge according to your sheets

Accurate data, correct prices, take only, commission paid, no filters, no backfitting, the same trade on every race.

Results sorted by the entry signal size....And.....the line takes a kick exactly where you said !

Breakeven below a certain signal threshold, profitable above it

And it matches exactly what I'd already found (hence the fast confirmation) ....but you maybe came at it from a different angle.

Bravo, now get your wallet out

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[ruthlessimon]

Or possibly that you might not have chosen the right market for such perfectionism - pre off horseracing has so many variables

It's the fact I know that it can definitely be improved.

That's my issue; & it's always been my issue since the beginning.

I'll be following my strategy to a T, & be taking losses I don't need to take.

Whereas, if I had a better process for finding the correlations in the losses/wins - could be avoided.

That's why I personally struggle. Maybe it's a first world trading problem lol

[ruthlessimon]

Bravo, now get your wallet out

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Problem is, now that I've shared that, it's just become a Wessex league edge - meaning I'll need to find double the improvements before I can trade it

[CallumPerry]

Simon you do make me laugh, being a perfectionist is a great quality for a person to have, shows you care and love what you do but I agree, get your wallet to and give it a go. You can tweak while you make pennies with small stakes to confirm it's working and continue to refine and perfect the strategy while you do so!

Hurry up because at this rate there's a chance a complete tool like me will find an edge and be making more pennies than you. I really hope you go for it, you're in a position I wish I was in.

I'm spending the next week or two around full-time supply teaching and tutoring (8:30-8:30 today) gathering a new pile of big data and testing a pretty complex idea I have ASAP, at the earliest inclination that there may be an edge there I will go live with small stakes. What have we got to lose? Pennies lost may unlock clues to thousands earned. Tried to make that last line sound clever and inspirational...

[ruthlessimon]

I think about it for the long term.

I know that if I don't ask these questions I'll be the first fall should something change.

You can see why I get frustrated; clearly it can be improved!!!

Which leads me onto a fundamental point, which I didn't quite realise.

I'm both making the market more efficient (trading a confirmed edge) - yet at the same time; I'm creating an inefficiency by not utilising all the available info. That's fascinating IMO, & to me, proves why Peter has been successful for so long.

[Jukebox]

This became a heavily redacted thread all of a sudden.

[jimibt]

This became a heavily redacted thread all of a sudden.

maybe some heavily guarded secret sauce was spilt

simon, one thing i know for sure is that even in my automation forays, i notice that the market behaviour subtley changes and evolves. without wishing to prolong your analysis phase, you'll no doubt be aware of this and have either factored this in, or alternatively, are focussing on an area where market change is dealt with by your parameters. one way or another, you need to get back to feeling the fear and going with it anyway. whilst data provides a comfort factor to guide future decisions, only participation will truly test all the moving parts, of which you are a major component. this is why i rely on automation for everything, i'm not built for the stress of the moment and try to avoid even watching anything in live when on automation as i know the temptations to tinker are always there!!

Set yourself the October Challenge Dare (OCD) and put your finger in the wind and go for it!

[foxwood]

Linus gave you a practical example of how he identifies and explores a strategy based on analysis of the data.

Have you tried doing something similar and put money in the market to understand how theory and reality sometimes blend and other times conflict ?

Do that, then analyse the results and think about why some worked and others didn't.

Either then adjust and try again with a modified version or abandon that idea and move on to the next one.

Simples - perpetual rinse and repeat of ideas.

38 minutes later ...

Absolutely yus, I'll keep ya posted as the days go by - hopefully, it'll serve as a great case study for all

So how have you got on using real money in the last 5 days ?

[CallumPerry]

This became a heavily redacted thread all of a sudden.

Almost as good as that thread where everyone was sharing their edges!

Very interesting thinking too Simon with regard to you adding efficiency/inefficiency, I agree you are a living enigma Don't worry about the evolving markets until you're sitting in the current, risk a couple of quid and do the October challenge (Love the OCD name!).

I do understand what you mean though, I know when my data gets gathered I will do A, B and C with it and I know what my second round of tests will be after, if step 1 shows anything positive. After that I know I would like to add this and that (I have a list of about 8 next phases for this system) but after Step 1 if anything positive emerges I will risk it with a small amount of money that I am willing to lose. I have no heart-ache if it is gone, it's a sort of investment in my learning. Then it just continues to be a numbers game but the numbers are now real. If I lose XX amount, back to step 0, it works then I will go through my phases looking to improve and scale it up.

I was one of the lead musicians at secondary school a few years ago and when it came to songwriting I could never finish a song because I just kept tweaking things until the entire structure, chord progression, genre etc changed. When starting to trade, I was adamant that that would not be my downfall. It's purely a fun Maths project I do daily where I'm trying to return the biggest numbers I can from a live evolving puzzle. If I crack it then money will change my life, if I don't then I'll continue as a teacher with this as a bit of fun in the evenings. I enjoy playing with small stakes at half terms and weekends too, just to examine the beast that is the markets.

Ps probably never managed to write a full album because of the girls in my class, can't think of a metaphor for this though. Especially when the distraction (blonde and leggy) to something I wanted to do (song writing) actually turned out to be more fun.

[Jukebox]

Ironically if you'd written a successful album the b&l distractions would be queueing up.

[gptuk]

LOL, any one that thinks that these people will share there stratageys is a fool, no matter how much you spend in subscriptions, no matter how many videos you watch, they want US to feed the markets and thats not me being a cynic that the reality IMHO and my costly experience to date !

[Jukebox]

LOL, any one that thinks that these people will share there stratageys is a fool, no matter how much you spend in subscriptions, no matter how many videos you watch, they want US to feed the markets and thats not me being a cynic that the reality IMHO and my costly experience to date !

We shouldn't expect them to share their strategies - but I was surprised to have witnessed active prevention - and the subsequent removal of posts that did so.

[spreadbetting]

I doubt anything too exciting has been removed, most of us get paranoid we've said too much so lots of posts get edited along the way. I have enough trouble simply understanding half the posts and have to look up all these mean reversions etc on google so I'd have missed the free edge anyways

[Euler]

There has been no moderation on this thread and we very very rarely moderate anything. But users can edit or delete their own posts. I wasn't following the thread so have no idea what was or wasn't said.

[Euler]

LOL, any one that thinks that these people will share there stratageys is a fool, no matter how much you spend in subscriptions, no matter how many videos you watch, they want US to feed the markets and thats not me being a cynic that the reality IMHO and my costly experience to date !

I'd disagree, most people are trying to flog outdated and old advice dressed up as new advice to make a few bob. Trading isn't easy, but the rewards when you can do it vastly outweigh the moral bankruptcy of pretending you do to earn a few quid.