Number Crunching After Capturing and Sorting.

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Euler
Posts: 24700
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

When I first started in this market it was a simple process for me. Stab around at random (with real money) and see what results I got. Look at those results and try to isolate why the losses occurred and try and eliminate them. Trading at random left me +/- nothing before commission so I knew if I could isolate and minimise the losses I could probably cross that line to a small profit. I've solved a ton of problems this way.

Your losses effectively define and construct the other side of the equation, namely profits. If you know what your average loss is and how it will occur you try and limit it one way or another and overcome that loss with on the other side. I rarely looked at trying to gain a profit, more how to overcome a loss.
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ShaunWhite
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Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Euler wrote:
Fri Sep 21, 2018 6:56 pm
There has been no moderation on this thread and we very very rarely moderate anything. But users can edit or delete their own posts. I wasn't following the thread so have no idea what was or wasn't said.
:) It was nothing. I just had an attack of anxiety, neurosis and paranoia brought on by working more hours than a junior doctor, so I twisted Simon's arm up his back until he removed sometime probably quite innocuous. At 5:45am it looked a lot worse than it did after I'd slept.
gptuk wrote:
Fri Sep 21, 2018 5:43 pm
LOL, any one that thinks that these people will share there stratageys is a fool, no matter how much you spend in subscriptions, no matter how many videos you watch, they want US to feed the markets and thats not me being a cynic that the reality IMHO and my costly experience to date !
We're all on the food chain buddy. I used to wonder why people were so secretive, until I realised that edges can be lost a lot more easily than they're found. Sports market are tiny really and the tenners don't go round very far. I've been doing 60hrs a week all year, more lately, and not had a holiday in 2, do I fancy sharing what I've found?, Nope. And by 'found' I mean I've found what doesn't work a hell of a lot more than found what does.

Stick at it.
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ShaunWhite
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Copywrite infringement, but I'll risk posting it for a short time
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ruthlessimon
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Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

Yeah, I don't particularly want one of those 5am bollockings again!! :lol:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fZLkvzJ ... be&t=2m51s

Musta been a slow day in the markets though - Never seen so much drama! ;)
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ruthlessimon
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Euler wrote:
Fri Sep 21, 2018 7:16 pm
Look at those results and try to isolate why the losses occurred and try and eliminate them.
I can already foresee one of my edges is about to degrade as we go into the jumps.

& this is my entire problem - which I think Spreadbetting et al. failed to understand. I've got plenty of edges, but my current process for solving the losses, doesn't promote my growth as a trader.

All it does - is stop me trading. :) (i.e. a stop-loss immediately solves the biggest losers, but it doesn't help in understanding why I lost)

The fact I can foresee the jumps are about to kill one of my strategies, should be a positive (& exploitable), but atm it's just going to lead to my trade frequency & profitability tanking

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gptuk
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so have much have you won today minus commission, subscriptions and time !!
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ruthlessimon
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What I've won or lost is completely meaningless - what matters to me are the general concepts behind those wins & losses.

Most people find an edge - then scale-up.

I'm going for the find an edge, improve the edge. WHich I believe was mentioned on a separate thread recently

But the issue I've come to realise. Even though I have edges, I am no different to someone asking for an edge, who doesn't have an edge. To the perspective of a trader better than me, I am no different to a complete novice.

But the time aspect does frustrate me, day after day putting in hundreds & hundreds of hrs - seeing no reward for that effort, would frustrate anybody
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Euler
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Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

I'd say you were miles ahead of many Simon in terms of your analysis, your approach and aptitude.

Worrying about the journey, it's expense or time lost is another form of loss aversion. I worked for a financial advisor, for a pittance, many years ago doing some IT. I did it so I could learn a little more about how that side of things all worked. I had no idea on just how well that would pay off years later, almost 20 years later. The pay off was spectacular.

If I had done it on a cost-benefit analysis, I wouldn't have progressed beyond the initial discussion. So my attitude now to many things is to just go with the flow and understand that I am learning and it will have a payoff, but probably beyond what I can see and in ways I can't imagine.

80% of people never start off down the path, most of those never push on to the end. You just can't predict the future, so don't, just try and do the right things.
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ruthlessimon
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Ty Pete :)

I hadn't actually thought of the "fear of a prolonged journey" as another form of loss aversion - but yeah that's absolutely right.

The neighbours are gonna have to accept; they aint gonna see me for a few more years still :lol:
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ShaunWhite
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ruthlessimon wrote:
Mon Sep 24, 2018 5:19 pm
The neighbours are gonna have to accept; they aint gonna see me for a few more years still :lol:
Unless one of them is your bank manager! Assuming you're not minted.

Peter is 100% right about 'the journey' but his message is about learning from people and situations on the way, not just doing the time. How many times has he said you need to test ideas with money? Do you disagree or have you decided that that doesn't apply to you?

Being frank, as always, and you'll hate this...... I think the problem is psychology; either fear of failure or chronic risk aversion.

Peter says you can't predict the future, but presumably you can put odds on the likely outcomes. What odds does he put on someone who ignores his advise and won't take a calculated risk, regardless of how many years they pour over the subject?

Harsh, but you know it comes from a 'good place', don't pick and choose what your idol says if you want to follow in his footsteps.
CallumPerry
Posts: 575
Joined: Wed Apr 19, 2017 5:12 pm
Location: Wolverhampton

^ Good advice. Heck Peter even made a video especially for you this week (Practise vs Live) ;) If your idol believes in you then you should too. Set aside a comfortably amount you're willing to lose in a month and trade live in October. See what happens then report back.
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jimibt
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Location: Narnia

CallumPerry wrote:
Mon Sep 24, 2018 8:18 pm
^ Good advice. Heck Peter even made a video especially for you this week (Practise vs Live) ;) If your idol believes in you then you should too. Set aside a comfortably amount you're willing to lose in a month and trade live in October. See what happens then report back.
i'd advise anyone/everyone to take their show on the road on exactly the terms you describe. practice mode can become a fantasy if pursued for too long -i know as i was that man once upon a time (and still am when testing new snippets) :D
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ruthlessimon
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Mon Sep 24, 2018 8:12 pm
How many times has he said you need to test ideas with money? Do you disagree or have you decided that that doesn't apply to you?

Being frank, as always, and you'll hate this...... I think the problem is psychology; either fear of failure or chronic risk aversion.
I completely get that

Maybe I'm totally unique in this regard. But I put far more weight on understanding/improving something, vs the execution - & also why do I need to trade, when you're already testing an edge for me?? :D r.e. back a few pages

For example, today I was looking at two edges - & I applied the same "enhancement" to both; & the refinement was intended to be universal (should boost any strategy)

However, this didn't occur - which has thrown up an entirely new set of questions - which I'm more interested in solving than actually trading ;)

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spreadbetting
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I think at the end of the day unless the advice your given agrees with your view, you're just going to ignore it , Simon. Not that there's anything wrong in living by your own convictions but you were continually asking for Peter to step in with advice but then don't take it. Live markets always behave differently from past data because the markets react to money entering, call it the butterfly effect or whatever but assuming the market will react exactley how it did with past data may end up being a big flaw in your strategy when it finally comes to playing live. Learning how the market reacts to your money entering is an edge in itself.
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ruthlessimon
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spreadbetting wrote:
Mon Sep 24, 2018 10:25 pm
I think at the end of the day unless the advice your given agrees with your view, you're just going to ignore it , Simon. Not that there's anything wrong in living by your own convictions but you were continually asking for Peter to step in with advice but then don't take it.
???

No I don't think that's a fair comment. I realised the advice I was looking for simply cannot be divulged on a forum (for obvious reasons). I mean look how twitchy Shaun got over something (I thought) was minor.

.. but could've been used to make an edge. It wasn't an edge - but the implication was "this is what you need to make an edge".

Ironically, I had answered my own question!!

The key lesson I've learnt from this thread - is to keep my bloody mouth shut!

P.S. I'm assuming you trade nags SB, but if you don't, the advice I was looking for would've allowed you to build an edge on nags. Can you see why stuff like that cannot be divulged on a forum! How traders utilise their data is such a massive edge!!! Most top traders don't even advertise that they track data (i.e. "Shaungate", i.e. page 8) - they especially don't advertise what they're tracking & how they analyse it. Hence why I posted this (I didn't expect Peter to reply):

"Even though I have edges, I am no different to someone asking for an edge, who doesn't have an edge. To the perspective of a trader better than me, I am no different to a complete novice."
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