Number Crunching After Capturing and Sorting.

[Jukebox]

This became a heavily redacted thread all of a sudden.

[jimibt]

This became a heavily redacted thread all of a sudden.

maybe some heavily guarded secret sauce was spilt

simon, one thing i know for sure is that even in my automation forays, i notice that the market behaviour subtley changes and evolves. without wishing to prolong your analysis phase, you'll no doubt be aware of this and have either factored this in, or alternatively, are focussing on an area where market change is dealt with by your parameters. one way or another, you need to get back to feeling the fear and going with it anyway. whilst data provides a comfort factor to guide future decisions, only participation will truly test all the moving parts, of which you are a major component. this is why i rely on automation for everything, i'm not built for the stress of the moment and try to avoid even watching anything in live when on automation as i know the temptations to tinker are always there!!

Set yourself the October Challenge Dare (OCD) and put your finger in the wind and go for it!

[foxwood]

Linus gave you a practical example of how he identifies and explores a strategy based on analysis of the data.

Have you tried doing something similar and put money in the market to understand how theory and reality sometimes blend and other times conflict ?

Do that, then analyse the results and think about why some worked and others didn't.

Either then adjust and try again with a modified version or abandon that idea and move on to the next one.

Simples - perpetual rinse and repeat of ideas.

38 minutes later ...

Absolutely yus, I'll keep ya posted as the days go by - hopefully, it'll serve as a great case study for all

So how have you got on using real money in the last 5 days ?

[CallumPerry]

This became a heavily redacted thread all of a sudden.

Almost as good as that thread where everyone was sharing their edges!

Very interesting thinking too Simon with regard to you adding efficiency/inefficiency, I agree you are a living enigma Don't worry about the evolving markets until you're sitting in the current, risk a couple of quid and do the October challenge (Love the OCD name!).

I do understand what you mean though, I know when my data gets gathered I will do A, B and C with it and I know what my second round of tests will be after, if step 1 shows anything positive. After that I know I would like to add this and that (I have a list of about 8 next phases for this system) but after Step 1 if anything positive emerges I will risk it with a small amount of money that I am willing to lose. I have no heart-ache if it is gone, it's a sort of investment in my learning. Then it just continues to be a numbers game but the numbers are now real. If I lose XX amount, back to step 0, it works then I will go through my phases looking to improve and scale it up.

I was one of the lead musicians at secondary school a few years ago and when it came to songwriting I could never finish a song because I just kept tweaking things until the entire structure, chord progression, genre etc changed. When starting to trade, I was adamant that that would not be my downfall. It's purely a fun Maths project I do daily where I'm trying to return the biggest numbers I can from a live evolving puzzle. If I crack it then money will change my life, if I don't then I'll continue as a teacher with this as a bit of fun in the evenings. I enjoy playing with small stakes at half terms and weekends too, just to examine the beast that is the markets.

Ps probably never managed to write a full album because of the girls in my class, can't think of a metaphor for this though. Especially when the distraction (blonde and leggy) to something I wanted to do (song writing) actually turned out to be more fun.

[Jukebox]

Ironically if you'd written a successful album the b&l distractions would be queueing up.

[gptuk]

LOL, any one that thinks that these people will share there stratageys is a fool, no matter how much you spend in subscriptions, no matter how many videos you watch, they want US to feed the markets and thats not me being a cynic that the reality IMHO and my costly experience to date !

[Jukebox]

LOL, any one that thinks that these people will share there stratageys is a fool, no matter how much you spend in subscriptions, no matter how many videos you watch, they want US to feed the markets and thats not me being a cynic that the reality IMHO and my costly experience to date !

We shouldn't expect them to share their strategies - but I was surprised to have witnessed active prevention - and the subsequent removal of posts that did so.

[spreadbetting]

I doubt anything too exciting has been removed, most of us get paranoid we've said too much so lots of posts get edited along the way. I have enough trouble simply understanding half the posts and have to look up all these mean reversions etc on google so I'd have missed the free edge anyways

[Euler]

There has been no moderation on this thread and we very very rarely moderate anything. But users can edit or delete their own posts. I wasn't following the thread so have no idea what was or wasn't said.

[Euler]

LOL, any one that thinks that these people will share there stratageys is a fool, no matter how much you spend in subscriptions, no matter how many videos you watch, they want US to feed the markets and thats not me being a cynic that the reality IMHO and my costly experience to date !

I'd disagree, most people are trying to flog outdated and old advice dressed up as new advice to make a few bob. Trading isn't easy, but the rewards when you can do it vastly outweigh the moral bankruptcy of pretending you do to earn a few quid.

[Euler]

When I first started in this market it was a simple process for me. Stab around at random (with real money) and see what results I got. Look at those results and try to isolate why the losses occurred and try and eliminate them. Trading at random left me +/- nothing before commission so I knew if I could isolate and minimise the losses I could probably cross that line to a small profit. I've solved a ton of problems this way.

Your losses effectively define and construct the other side of the equation, namely profits. If you know what your average loss is and how it will occur you try and limit it one way or another and overcome that loss with on the other side. I rarely looked at trying to gain a profit, more how to overcome a loss.

[ShaunWhite]

There has been no moderation on this thread and we very very rarely moderate anything. But users can edit or delete their own posts. I wasn't following the thread so have no idea what was or wasn't said.

It was nothing. I just had an attack of anxiety, neurosis and paranoia brought on by working more hours than a junior doctor, so I twisted Simon's arm up his back until he removed sometime probably quite innocuous. At 5:45am it looked a lot worse than it did after I'd slept.

LOL, any one that thinks that these people will share there stratageys is a fool, no matter how much you spend in subscriptions, no matter how many videos you watch, they want US to feed the markets and thats not me being a cynic that the reality IMHO and my costly experience to date !

We're all on the food chain buddy. I used to wonder why people were so secretive, until I realised that edges can be lost a lot more easily than they're found. Sports market are tiny really and the tenners don't go round very far. I've been doing 60hrs a week all year, more lately, and not had a holiday in 2, do I fancy sharing what I've found?, Nope. And by 'found' I mean I've found what doesn't work a hell of a lot more than found what does.

Stick at it.

[ShaunWhite]

Copywrite infringement, but I'll risk posting it for a short time

[ruthlessimon]

Yeah, I don't particularly want one of those 5am bollockings again!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fZLkvzJ ... be&t=2m51s

Musta been a slow day in the markets though - Never seen so much drama!

[ruthlessimon]

Look at those results and try to isolate why the losses occurred and try and eliminate them.

I can already foresee one of my edges is about to degrade as we go into the jumps.

& this is my entire problem - which I think Spreadbetting et al. failed to understand. I've got plenty of edges, but my current process for solving the losses, doesn't promote my growth as a trader.

All it does - is stop me trading. (i.e. a stop-loss immediately solves the biggest losers, but it doesn't help in understanding why I lost)

The fact I can foresee the jumps are about to kill one of my strategies, should be a positive (& exploitable), but atm it's just going to lead to my trade frequency & profitability tanking