ruthlessimon wrote: ↑Mon Sep 17, 2018 5:31 pm
Euler wrote: ↑Mon Sep 17, 2018 4:02 pm
The best analysis would be to look at the excess win rate, by assigning each favourite a value of (1*(DID IT WIN)-(1/ODDS))
That is actually such a beautiful way to do it !
Well i'm having a totally thick moment - can someone explain in simple words what the value derived actually
means ?
Win rate is a term I associate with strike rate which is not the case here since deals with probabilities.
Let alone what is an "excess win rate" ?
EDIT: More confusion - Shaun's example above would yield profit using level stakes at those odds/wins yet "excess win rate" is negative meaning no edge ? Actual profit seems to contradict the magic number ?
EDIT 2: Think Shaun's maths is wrong - as I understand formula should give result ...
3.159 WIN = 0.683444128
2.191 WIN = 0.543587403
4.800 LOS = -0.208333333 <----------
4.000 LOS = -0.25 <----------
1.502 WIN = 0.334221039
3.500 LOS = -0.285714286 <----------
So the excess win rate is = +0.817204948 <----------