Who wants to share some edges.

A place to discuss anything.
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Euler
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"DID IT WIN" would be a logical argument where 1 is yes and 0 is no
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ruthlessimon
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Yup that's what I did, Prince came out at -0.1%; yet it's dominating on that backtest - that really was fascinating seeing the difference there - suggesting there is no edge. Massively appreciated Pete :)
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ShaunWhite
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And then there's oversharing.... :?

https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=edge

edge
To edge is a masturbation technique (used mostly, but not exclusively by men) where you intentionally bring yourself to the brink (edge) of orgasm- but don't cum. Instead you stop and let the pleasurable feelings die down. You repeat this process of bringing yourself to the edge as many times as you wish. Although an orgasm is a 10 on the pleasure scale, the intense pleasure you feel while getting close to the edge is a 9... so by starting and stopping just before you cum you keep yourself feeling intense pleasure for as long as you wish, or until you orgasm, or your hard on goes limp. A sex partner can also edge you- usually by hand or orally.
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jimibt
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Mon Sep 17, 2018 5:19 pm
And then there's oversharing.... :?

https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=edge

edge
To edge is a masturbation technique (used mostly, but not exclusively by men) where you intentionally bring yourself to the brink (edge) of orgasm- but don't cum. Instead you stop and let the pleasurable feelings die down. You repeat this process of bringing yourself to the edge as many times as you wish. Although an orgasm is a 10 on the pleasure scale, the intense pleasure you feel while getting close to the edge is a 9... so by starting and stopping just before you cum you keep yourself feeling intense pleasure for as long as you wish, or until you orgasm, or your hard on goes limp. A sex partner can also edge you- usually by hand or orally.
guess that'll put an end to pm me later and i'll share my edge with you - lol
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Derek27
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I think we've shared enough edges now. :lol:

Unfortunate first post, but I hope the OP's not put off continuing to use the forum. :)
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ShaunWhite
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jimibt wrote:
Mon Sep 17, 2018 5:24 pm
ShaunWhite wrote:
Mon Sep 17, 2018 5:19 pm
And then there's oversharing.... :?
guess that'll put an end to pm me later and i'll share my edge with you - lol
:lol:
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ruthlessimon
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Euler wrote:
Mon Sep 17, 2018 4:02 pm
The best analysis would be to look at the excess win rate, by assigning each favourite a value of (1*(DID IT WIN)-(1/ODDS))
That is actually such a beautiful way to do it !

Thank christ Bowlery asked the original question :)
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ruthlessimon
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Just so people get there head around this, I just looked at 2 ideas:

1. "Edge 1" ("Prince") : - RoI 0.4%, 736 trades, (excess winrate -0.12%)
2. "Edge 2" : - RoI 0.4%, 33 trades (excess winrate 1.26%)

Edge 1 shouldn't have been an edge - & isn't.

Yet

Edge 2, looks very similar to Edge 1, but Peter's metric highlights a huge deviation.

People should be having nuke lightbulbs right now - even Jim for thinking Prince was an edge
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Kafkaesque
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This thread....usually such a serious forum for the most part.

Did everyone agree on mushroom high Monday? :lol:
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wearthefoxhat
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Ok..here's a smoking HOT edge I'm willing to share.


edge.PNG

However, if you attend a Peter Webb Masterclass, this will give you ideas to create and find you're own edge(s). Get in before Brexit 2019... ;)
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ShaunWhite
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ruthlessimon wrote:
Mon Sep 17, 2018 5:31 pm
Euler wrote:
Mon Sep 17, 2018 4:02 pm
The best analysis would be to look at the excess win rate, by assigning each favourite a value of (1*(DID IT WIN)-(1/ODDS))
That is actually such a beautiful way to do it !
I don't quite get it....

So for straight betting eg..
bsp,res,excess win rate
3.159 WIN = 0.683444128
2.191 WIN = 0.543587403
4.800 LOS = -1.208333333
4.000 LOS = -1.25
1.502 WIN = 0.334221039
3.500 LOS = -1.285714286
So the excess win rate is = -2.18279505

(excuse the precision it was a cut and paste job)

But if trading, do you create an implied odds from your P&L, ie the 'oods' your traded amount returned? Where do the odds come from on a trade?
And does 'DID IT WIN' become 'WAS IT PROFITABLE' ?
foxwood
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ruthlessimon wrote:
Mon Sep 17, 2018 5:31 pm
Euler wrote:
Mon Sep 17, 2018 4:02 pm
The best analysis would be to look at the excess win rate, by assigning each favourite a value of (1*(DID IT WIN)-(1/ODDS))
That is actually such a beautiful way to do it !
Well i'm having a totally thick moment - can someone explain in simple words what the value derived actually means ?

Win rate is a term I associate with strike rate which is not the case here since deals with probabilities.

Let alone what is an "excess win rate" ?

EDIT: More confusion - Shaun's example above would yield profit using level stakes at those odds/wins yet "excess win rate" is negative meaning no edge ? Actual profit seems to contradict the magic number ?

EDIT 2: Think Shaun's maths is wrong - as I understand formula should give result ...
3.159 WIN = 0.683444128
2.191 WIN = 0.543587403
4.800 LOS = -0.208333333 <----------
4.000 LOS = -0.25 <----------
1.502 WIN = 0.334221039
3.500 LOS = -0.285714286 <----------
So the excess win rate is = +0.817204948 <----------
Last edited by foxwood on Mon Sep 17, 2018 7:14 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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ruthlessimon
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Mon Sep 17, 2018 6:49 pm
I don't quite get it....

But if trading, do you create an implied odds from your P&L, ie the 'oods' your traded amount returned? Where do the odds come from on a trade?
And does 'DID IT WIN' become 'WAS IT PROFITABLE' ?
Yeah, I think I've something wrong, cause this isn't right - or I'd be in Marbella by now

Straight backing a fav priced in the range of 1.5, just under 3mins mins remaining = 15.3%

Image
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ruthlessimon
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foxwood wrote:
Mon Sep 17, 2018 7:03 pm
Well i'm having a totally thick moment - can someone explain in simple words what the value derived actually means ?

Win rate is a term I associate with strike rate which is not the case here since deals with probabilities.

Let alone what is an "excess win rate" ?
The reason I thought it was beautiful, is because I thought it was a nice way of working out if the price was value - which would imply being onside with the "clever form players" - hence by default should be a profitable trade (possibly a pretty bad assumption).

.. because I'm getting so many wacky values, & my real edge benchmarks are massively underperforming what they should (looking back that 1.26% isn't very big)
foxwood
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ruthlessimon wrote:
Mon Sep 17, 2018 7:18 pm
The reason I thought it was beautiful, is because I thought it was a nice way of working out if the price was value - which would imply being onside with the "clever form players" - hence by default should be a profitable trade (possibly a pretty bad assumption).

.. because I'm getting so many wacky values, & my real edge benchmarks are massively underperforming what they should (looking back that 1.26% isn't very big)
Penny has dropped a bit for me - sadly it doesn't (as I understand it) tell you about the value of a discreet price.

What the final nett total is telling you about your strategy is an indication of how much better your strategy is doing compared to implied probability. Positive is better, negative is worse. Magnitude of the number seems to give some indication of how much better or worse.

Not sure is particularly relevant to trading and from his question about level stakes maybe PW thinking it was a backing strategy you graphed ?

Anyway that's where I've got to and have inverted the formula and applied it to some lay strategies and got some interesting new numbers to play with now :lol:

Golden nuggets just litter this forum :D
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