Nice trading quote

[Iron]

The sum zero and commission bits apply to BF.

As for slippage, let's go with Nassim Taleb's definition (from Wikipedia):

'the difference between the average execution price and the initial midpoint of the bid and the offer for a given quantity to be executed'.

Let's say I want to enter the market long when the market is at 6.0-6.2. I could either:

- Offer at 6.0. If my offer is accepted, great. If not, and the market rises further and I still want to go long, I have to offer at 6.2 and risk missing the boat again, or take at 6.4.

- Take at 6.2 initially.

Either way, unless I am filled at 6.0, I'm losing out due to slippage.

As a result, I would say that slippage applies to BF trading (although if your style is to offer speculatively and you don't care where you get matched, it's not such an issue).

Jeff

A view which Zenyatta will doubtless agree with!

But a lot of that doesn't apply in the sports market.

[Euler]

Your maximum loss on Betfair is the commission you pay to them, which is tiny if you are trading. So that's all you need to overcome to make a profit. Much more favourable than financial markets.

[Iron]

I've never gone in big on a tip from a mate, but I've made big bets on what I thought were high probability trading outcomes, and ended up red faced. I imagine it's quite common.

I once knew someone who bought £20K of Lloyds TSB shares because he thought the price would rise after a government announcement. It actually fell. I disliked the guy, and took pleasure from him losing money due to his own hubris! He had a macho attitude to losing money, but didn't realise that, whilst losses weren't to be feared, they should be kept to a minimum!

Jeff

Hmm, punting it all on a tip by a mate. Not sure that's a trading or investing maxim.

[Euler]

I think the general problem with tips is that you can blame somebody else, when in fact you should always make your own decisions as if forces you to think them through. You also have to accept responsibility when they go wrong.

[Euler]

Not aiming this at you particularly Jeff, but having just returned from the US I'm always on such a high. Met loads of people and we all talked open and honestly about the various aspects of what we do, but the 'can do' feeling and positivity in the discussions always really strikes me when I'm in the US. You feel anything is possible. But it's not a blind optimism, its just a 'lets see what we can do' sort of optimism.

I've offered to help a hedge fund there and they are going to try and reverse into a sports insurance company and, if successful, we may actually be able to list on Nasdaq within a year. Fair few hurdles to overcome but it's an interesting diversion.

[Iron]

it's not a blind optimism, its just a 'lets see what we can do' sort of optimism.

Believe it or not, I'm actually a fan of that kind of thinking!

I just think it needs to be tempered with asking, 'What could go wrong?'.

I was listening recently to an interview with a guy who's studied extremely successful people (self-help guru Tony Robbins).

One of the things he said was that Richard Branson, when weighing up a potential business venture, asks what the potential downside is. It's as important a consideration as what could go right.

Jeff

[Euler]

I used to worry too much about what could go wrong and never asked what could go right. In fact an awful lot can and you realise that too many people focus on the former and miss opportunities. The fact that people are so focused on the downside actually creates opportunity for people who can think in the opposing manner.

[Iron]

"There are old traders, there are bold traders, but there are no old, bold traders."

Ed Seykota

[Iron]

'In this new era, you have two choices: become a temp staffer (not a horrible choice) or become an artist-entrepreneur. Choose to commoditize your labor or choose yourself to be a creator, an innovator, an artist, an investor, a marketer, and an entrepreneur. I say “and” rather than “or” because now you have to be all of the above. Not just one. An artist must also be an entrepreneur. That’s it. Those ARE your choices.

Cubicles are getting commoditized. And when that happens, they empty out. I saw it with my own eyes when I visited my investor friend and stared out his office windows at the vacant vertical city.

And now I see it happening every day. It’s not something that can be changed with laws or with printing money or with a change in values. It’s history now. The world has already changed, and all the pieces are just falling into place.'

Altucher, James (2013-06-03). Choose Yourself! (pp. 26-28). . Kindle Edition.

[Zenyatta]

"Once you admit that luck was crucial to your success, you have to confront the terrifying possibility that your luck may run out someday"

-Cory Doctorow

[Euler]

Fortunate then that my trading doesn't rely on luck, just good old fashioned hard work.

[Golfer]

"Fortunate then that my trading doesn't rely on luck, just good old fashioned hard work."

P.Webb (2014)

[Zenyatta]

Fortunate then that my trading doesn't rely on luck, just good old fashioned hard work.

[Iron]

'I often trade the favourite as this is usually where the action is. If there is no opposition it will steam, if there is opposition it may drift. But if there is opposition AND it is still coming in, then this means to resist this opposition people really want to back it. Once it breaks the will of whichever runner(s) that are opposing it, then it usually really motors.'

[Wyndon]

Does anybody seriously believe that Peter is either fabricating his profits or that it's all down to luck? I'm reminded of forums that criticise racing as being bent through and through and yet those same people continue to bet on it. If Peter can't make a profit, neither can you - forget it and save your money.