Is there a higher probability at work, than just price?

Post Reply
User avatar
rinconpaul
Posts: 112
Joined: Wed Dec 03, 2014 10:39 pm

We all know that every race is an independent event! The results of one race have no influence on another!...Right?...well how come statistics gurus/bookmakers might use the line about a team making the 8th spot of the finals, "An 8th spot team has never gone on to win the league series!" It's a prediction based on history and we'll see today, as the North Queensland Cowboys who finished 8th are in the Grand Final. The VFL Grand Final is on tomorrow and the final two haven't won a Grand Final, let alone played in one for decades. Who would've forecast it?

Statistics have a way of surprising us at any time! More trivia: yesterdays AUS gallops at Benalla. No. 11 placed in 6 of eight races. Numbers 5-10-11 placed in consecutive races. UK Greyhounds at Kinsley, numbers 1 & 2 placed 1st and 2nd in 4 consecutive races. How can we profit from these extraordinary events? I believe you can and did research this once, but as the record keeping is so time consuming, eventually gave it a miss. The system I was contemplating for consecutive same track events was continually update a spreadsheet with results. Take the Kinsley greyhound results. How often would numbers 1 & 2 place in consecutive races at same track, say 4 times? What are the odds of that occurring? let's say it was 1000:1 that 1 & 2 would place in 5 consecutive places. Would it be prudent to consider backing dogs 3,4,5,6 in the next race and/or laying 1,2?

Something to think about? :?:
User avatar
Derek27
Posts: 23475
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

It's nothing to think about.

The probability of 1 and 2 being placed five times consecutively in any order (assuming each dog has an equal chance) is 759374-1. It should happen after about three-quarter of a million dog races but has absolutely no bearing on the next race.

The probability of any two numbers being place five times would be the same for four consecutive results, 50624-1. I would expect it to happen every few years.

The answer to the question, how can we profit from these extraordinary events is, we can't!

You're questioning whether you should back 3,4,5 or 6 after 5 repeat results, but surely you would have been asking the same question after 3 or 4 repeat results. What's special about the number 5?
LinusP
Posts: 1871
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2012 10:45 pm

I recommend reading signal and the noise by Nate Silver.
User avatar
Euler
Posts: 24701
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

LinusP wrote:
Sat Sep 30, 2017 6:02 am
I recommend reading signal and the noise by Nate Silver.
It's a good book
Post Reply

Return to “Australian”