Oil - WTI / Brent Crude

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Euler
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Fascinating to watch the Oil price. Great piece in the Economist recently about the dynamics of the market. But I but you few, if any economists or traders were able to predict the current market.

http://ycharts.com/indicators/brent_cru ... spot_price

From a peak of $125 a barrel, brent hit <$81 today in an recovering economy.
BabyArber
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That's a drifter I'd feel uncomfortable riding...

Come to think of it... when using horse racing terms to refer to commodity markets should I use 'drift' or a 'steam'?

So price decrease in a commodity is similar to the chance of horses to win going down. A drift.

So the graphs are backwards because we normally graph odds which is the inverse of implied probability.
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Euler
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Y, it's all back to front.

It's curious though because Oil usually follows the economic cycle, but the Oil producing nationals have been pushing out the barrels to try and choke off the shale gas revolution. It's a complex set of dynamics.
andyfuller
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Still gets me how quickly it seemingly goes up at the pumps when the oil price rises but comes down much slower and to a lesser extent.

Then you get the Chancellor moaning about the lack of speed of the falls at the pump but forgets to mention the proportion of it that is tax.
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BJGardner
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Shrewd trader Warren Buffet.

Buys into a good business with Christmas coming (Duracell) and saves a lot of CGT.
andyfuller
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Just don't mention Tesco too him ;)
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Euler
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Curious Tesco hasn't half in priced when you take into account dividends. But nobody seems to care about total return only a wiggly line on a chart.
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Euler
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30223721

Oil touching $70 a barrel. Should give economies a bit of a kick, apart form the Oil producing ones!
PeterLe
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They recon it could drop to as low as $60..there's just too much off it about at the mo now that America are harvesting their own :o
andyfuller
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I think some of the reasons being discussed are quite interesting. I am leaning towards the argument that they (Opec, i.e. Saudi's) are trying to put a lot of the Shale Gas producers in the States out of business.

It seems the most logical reason to me but I don't see how long term it will work as eventually when the price goes back up, be it soon or in a few years Shale will become viable again.

I can see a lot of people losing a lot of money in the states, carnage for many. Also it reduces the likelyhood of fracking coming to the UK soon I would think.

It should do the world economy a lot of good at a time when it is very much needed.
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Euler
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$66

Betfair should have a market on it
THENUTS
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buffet.jpg

The question is how do you define the point where others are fearful on the short side ?
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Euler
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Some additional background reading: -

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/oilp ... -dies.html
98lewisj
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Euler wrote:$66

Betfair should have a market on it
+1 get on to them.
steven1976
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Someone tell the airlines about it.
fuel surcharge.jpg

I know they buy their fuel in advance but I doubt they will be giving a fuel deduction bonus in 6 months time.
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