How long does it take to judge whether a system is working?

Trading is often about how to take the appropriate risk without exposing yourself to very human flaws.
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MemphisFlash
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Trading The british, Irish, American and Australian Horses
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FrogThimble
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That's seriously impressive, MemphisFlash... I wish my graph could be as smooth. I'm having a pretty rough day of it so far today. My graph at the end of today is going to look very interesting (and not in a good way) if this continues. Still, early days, only 6 races have qualified for my attention so far today.
FrogThimble
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Day 4:

Just 13 trades today because very few races met with the conditions of my strategy. This takes my total trades up to 56.
List 4.jpg

Those that did meet it were pretty hard work. I ended the day on a new high point on my graph though.




Day 4.jpg

Strike rate today: 77% (10/13)
Overall Strike rate: 79% (44/56)
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weemac
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I'd imagine that staking to % of bank will be dramatically skewing your graph. Try level stakes to get a clearer picture, imo.
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MemphisFlash
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had a bit of a dip in my bot today but i traded 124 races
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FrogThimble
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weemac wrote:
Wed Apr 25, 2018 8:44 pm
I'd imagine that staking to % of bank will be dramatically skewing your graph. Try level stakes to get a clearer picture, imo.
I take your point but I don't want to play with level stakes. (I only adjust the stake once per day, btw, at the end of the day rather than after each trade). My starting bank this time was only a mere £10 for this experiment... I'm up to £12.98 after 4 days so I'm happy enough. If this doesn't work then I don't care too much as I'm not too emotionally invested in £10... But I'm just curious to see how much my strategy can grow my £10. If I'm onto something then that's great... if not then I'm only blowing a tenner. Right now I'm fairly happy with 29.8% growth in 4 days. ;) Either way, I want the graph to show the story.

Day 1: £10 to £10.96 (9.6% growth)
Day 2: £10.96 to £11.87 (8.3% growth)
Day 3: £11.87 to £12.33 (3.9% growth)
Day 4: £12.33 to £12.98 (5.3% growth)

If I'm wrong in my approach then I'm only playing with won money beyond my initial tenner. If I'm right then I'm laughing... Looks too good to be true at the moment, of course, but I'm enjoying the experiment.
FrogThimble
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MemphisFlash wrote:
Wed Apr 25, 2018 9:33 pm
had a bit of a dip in my bot today but i traded 124 races

Ouch! I hope you have a better day tomorrow. :)
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MemphisFlash
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i think you are approaching this correctly but there will be a time when you are emotionally tied to the money.
If you can control that feeling whether it is £10, £100 or £1000 then you are on a winner.
FrogThimble
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MemphisFlash wrote:
Wed Apr 25, 2018 10:39 pm
i think you are approaching this correctly but there will be a time when you are emotionally tied to the money.
If you can control that feeling whether it is £10, £100 or £1000 then you are on a winner.
I think you're right. But if I reach the point where I've grown the bank enough to be emotionally tied to it then that's the point at which I'll stop trying to grow the bank further and cap my stake size to withdraw any weekly winnings. :) Also I think there's a natural ceiling to the bank size on this strategy... a point at which I'd struggle to get my trades matched. I don't know yet what that figure is, of course, but I will know when I hit it.
FrogThimble
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I'm struggling today. So far I've had 5 consecutive wins followed by 3 consecutive losses which more than wiped out the wins. I'm getting very few chances today with so few of the races meeting my conditions to trade. It's almost an hour and a half since I last did anything ...
FrogThimble
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Oh, that was tempting fate... Right after I posted that last message I had another losing trade. :D
FrogThimble
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Day 5:

I got off to a good start today then hit a really rough patch before gradually recovering. I did 17 trades today bringing the total trades up to 73.
Day 5.jpg
Today's strike rate: 71% (12/17)
Overall strike rate: 76% (56/73)
Today's growth: £12.98 to £13.28 = 2.3% growth of bank.
Overall growth: £10.00 to £13.28 = 32.8% growth of bank in 5 trading days.

Today was my lowest strike rate so far and also my lowest profit growth.
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ShaunWhite
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Might also be worth looking at you return on investment figure (ROI) rather than just 'growth'. pl/stake

Those charts are like fractals sometimes, zoom out 10000 races and you'll see that's a small bit of a big graph that looks exactly the same. Hard part is figuring which bit. :)
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ruthlessimon
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Thu Apr 26, 2018 8:34 pm
Those charts are like fractals sometimes
& this is what makes trading so difficult!

I thought Peter's shades of grey video was brilliant - although I think labeling it as "psychological issue" was slightly misleading. Knowing the strategy needs to be tested with a slightly different variation - that's not psychology - that's pure trading wisdom :)

Frog if you can I recommend doing it; just tweak some variables & see how things change.

If I hadn't - I'd thrown this idea out on the first trial. But for some reason the "mid-variations" are outperfroming (I aint got a clue why btw :D ):

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FrogThimble
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Thu Apr 26, 2018 8:34 pm
Might also be worth looking at you return on investment figure (ROI) rather than just 'growth'. pl/stake

Those charts are like fractals sometimes, zoom out 10000 races and you'll see that's a small bit of a big graph that looks exactly the same. Hard part is figuring which bit. :)
Yes, I appreciate the point. I'll not be pursuing this experiment to anything close to 10,000 races though - long before then I hope to know if it's a success or a failure. However... I might do a daily graph showing just the trades for each day, in addition to my main graph, as that might tell me something. All the trades in any one day are to the same stake as I only adjust the stake settings at the end of each day.
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