Tracking odds using historic relative odds

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Niko
Posts: 282
Joined: Thu Dec 01, 2016 9:36 am

Anybody had any success using HRO to track the direction of a trade. I am thinking about placing a bet, setting a signal that would trigger either a green up or red out depending on the way the odds go, using HRO to monitor odds movement over time?
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ZeroCounty
Posts: 15
Joined: Sun Aug 06, 2017 9:43 pm

The topic seems very interesting, want to follow it. BTW what do you mean by HRO?
I thought we can see the trend by weight of the money. Or is it not ?
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Niko
Posts: 282
Joined: Thu Dec 01, 2016 9:36 am

Historic Relative Odds! :D

I was hoping to do something with signals, whereby once the criteria for a bet is matched use signals to indicate the shift in odds, either in your favour or against your positions using HRO. For example, is the current back price the same plus one tick one second ago. You would need to work out cancel signal rules as well and I think you would need several of these type of rules to cover all eventualities. Probably too difficult to do or there is a better way already that Dallas will be along in a moment to explain!! :lol:
sionascaig
Posts: 1055
Joined: Fri Nov 20, 2015 9:38 am

Why not use the profit condition ? If positive you know the price is with you & vice versa...

Strangely enough I was looking at something similar this morning... It's fairly straightforward to increment or decrement a signal based on a price at a fixed point in time but this will not take into account the actual size if the move, e.g.

- price moves up one tick after 1 secs
- price falls 5 ticks after 2 secs
- price moves up 1 tick after 3 secs

Net position is a fall of 3 ticks, but incremental signals will record, say,

+1 after 1 sec
- 1 after 2 secs
+ 1 after 3 secs

Net position of +1

(also you are not really recording each tick movement, just sampling every second or whatever time period you choose)

Dallas has posted some bots that look for drifts based on what happened x, y & z secs ago - maybe have a look there?
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ZeroCounty
Posts: 15
Joined: Sun Aug 06, 2017 9:43 pm

sionascaig wrote:
Tue Nov 21, 2017 7:42 pm
Why not use the profit condition ? If positive you know the price is with you & vice versa...

Strangely enough I was looking at something similar this morning... It's fairly straightforward to increment or decrement a signal based on a price at a fixed point in time but this will not take into account the actual size if the move, e.g.

- price moves up one tick after 1 secs
- price falls 5 ticks after 2 secs
- price moves up 1 tick after 3 secs

Net position is a fall of 3 ticks, but incremental signals will record, say,

+1 after 1 sec
- 1 after 2 secs
+ 1 after 3 secs

Net position of +1

(also you are not really recording each tick movement, just sampling every second or whatever time period you choose)

Dallas has posted some bots that look for drifts based on what happened x, y & z secs ago - maybe have a look there?
We could place three or more conditions to check your condition is true or not, Like
Condition 1: price moves in favor one tick or more after 1 secs
Condition 2: price moves in favor two tick or more after 2 secs
Condition 3: price moves in favor three tick or more after 3 secs
By this way we can make sure it is moving in favor not going back

And for the signal why are you not focusing on WOM, as we know when WOM crosses 70% in one direction the price is most likely to move in the same direction
phildavies21
Posts: 28
Joined: Thu Oct 05, 2017 7:28 pm

Yep Im after exactly the same thing. Want to be able to see all the price movements after a bet is placed so I can work out over and avg where to set my stop loss and more importantly how many ticks I could be squeezing out of these trades on avg. Ive programmed the increase/decrease approach using the HRO like mentioned above but yes it does rely on the tick only moving 1 per second otherwise its giving false info. Im hoping I can program something or im going to have to spend days watching and marking down price movements when my bot is triggered. Which with an 9 month old baby aint happening!
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Niko
Posts: 282
Joined: Thu Dec 01, 2016 9:36 am

I suppose you could have multiple rules set at 1 second intervals to cover a range of tick movements?? So at one second is the price 1 tick above HRO , next rule would be at one second 2 ticks above, at 1 second 3 ticks above, at 1 second 4 ticks above. Repeat the above for two seconds, three second intervals etc?? Then repeat again for the below HRO.

Trick would be resetting each rule if the condition was not matched and then write the rules to red or green out if one was matched??

Probably talking rubbish!?!?! If only we could set a signal that recorded the odds value!! :D
sionascaig
Posts: 1055
Joined: Fri Nov 20, 2015 9:38 am

I think one of the major problems with the 1 (or 2) second sample is that there will be just too much volatility to make much sense of the results..

An approach might be...

Define:

p0 - price now
p2 - price 2 secs ago
p4 - price 4 secs ago
p8 - price 8 secs ago
p16 - price 16 secs ago
blah
blah
p128 - price 128 secs ago
p256 - price 256 secs ago

Then set a signal based on the "strength" of the drift (or steam)....e.g. if "all" of the above price points were < current price there is a very strong drift...

But in reality you want to take out the noise so maybe ignore p2 & p4 (spikes etc) & maybe you aren't interested in what happened two minutes ago as the market was still forming, so exclude p256, p128...

PS: I tend to find WOM at a specific point in time not that informative however if it is persistent then thats a different matter... (not that I've got any stats to back that up)...
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