Botty Challenges

Advanced automation available in Guardian - Chat with others and share files here.
Post Reply
User avatar
mcgoo
Posts: 898
Joined: Thu Jul 18, 2013 12:30 pm

Then you get caught by 2 early suspensions in one day..one pace race that starts more than 2 minutes early :shock: (at least according to the log) -good bye 2 days profit...and a dog race 30 secs early.... :shock: ..make 20% of the loss back. That kind of reliability can't be beaten :evil:
spreadbetting
Posts: 3140
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

mcgoo wrote:
Tue Oct 16, 2018 8:09 am
Then you get caught by 2 early suspensions in one day..one pace race that starts more than 2 minutes early :shock: (at least according to the log) -good bye 2 days profit...and a dog race 30 secs early.... :shock: ..make 20% of the loss back. That kind of reliability can't be beaten :evil:
Unfortunately that's one of the 'perks' of using a trading bot on Betfair, probably one of the reasons many of us try to keep to value based bots rather than trading ones.
User avatar
mcgoo
Posts: 898
Joined: Thu Jul 18, 2013 12:30 pm

spreadbetting wrote:
Tue Oct 16, 2018 1:57 pm
mcgoo wrote:
Tue Oct 16, 2018 8:09 am
Then you get caught by 2 early suspensions in one day..one pace race that starts more than 2 minutes early :shock: (at least according to the log) -good bye 2 days profit...and a dog race 30 secs early.... :shock: ..make 20% of the loss back. That kind of reliability can't be beaten :evil:
Unfortunately that's one of the 'perks' of using a trading bot on Betfair, probably one of the reasons many of us try to keep to value based bots rather than trading ones.
It seems so. I had another strange anomaly today where a lay bet was opened and fully matched in the log. The closing bet was placed but the stop loss / green up before the off didn't kick in (my unmatched bet counter didn't activate either :? ).There is no logic to that circumstance. Guardian didn't show any matched bets for the race but the Betfair P&L shows a winning lay bet :? The market looks to have started on time. There is reliability most of the time and I can see situations /markets where I am quite profitable but 1 or 2 events like in the last 2 days can really introduce a randomness of significant proportions. I have recovered 75% of the losing lay bet yesterday but I have reduced confidence in being able to to let bots run now. I have spent years refining bots and finally get to a point where I am confident in the logic but am now stymied by market suspensions and gremlins :roll: .I am curious to hear from other automaters/botters out there. Does it come out in the wash?..or have you given up and gone for value bets like spreadbetting? Cheers
spreadbetting
Posts: 3140
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

If you have a winning bot, on the whole you'd expect it to be placing the main value bet with its entry, rather than exit so over time you should come out in front given a large enough sample.

I've been botting well over 10 years and still have to tweak my code to try and account for Betfair's quirks. Not sure what data guardian keeps but you can always look thru your betting history for void lapsed bets to try and figure out why the closer wasn't matched. Many times you'll bet into a suspended market and need to resend if possible but so much depends on what you're doing as to how best to handle any blips.

You'll never fully omit unclosed trades though so you'll need to see if the frequency and your exposure mean it's worth the risk to you.
User avatar
mcgoo
Posts: 898
Joined: Thu Jul 18, 2013 12:30 pm

spreadbetting wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 11:00 am
If you have a winning bot, on the whole you'd expect it to be placing the main value bet with its entry, rather than exit so over time you should come out in front given a large enough sample.

I've been botting well over 10 years and still have to tweak my code to try and account for Betfair's quirks. Not sure what data guardian keeps but you can always look thru your betting history for void lapsed bets to try and figure out why the closer wasn't matched. Many times you'll bet into a suspended market and need to resend if possible but so much depends on what you're doing as to how best to handle any blips.

You'll never fully omit unclosed trades though so you'll need to see if the frequency and your exposure mean it's worth the risk to you.
Good advice.Thanks. 10 years gives me good context and hope :)
Out of interest: I have 12 rules to set the entry conditions..6 rules to enter and 27 close condition rules ( to manage open bets,partial matches b4 and after closing and to close before the off [multiple times] ) From what I could see in this particular instance the log recorded a fully matched bet and placed the closure bet. It didn't however detect the closure bet as unmatched. It also didn't run any of the pre-off green ups (didn't even seem to try) It should have, at worst, closed out before the off regardless of stop loss.I don't know if this was a lag(stuck) in the streaming or another error I have not considered but definitely perplexing..as was the message mentioned above about the offset bet not being required. I'll keep running and accept the quirks as you say and try to see something in the data. I guess its the nature of the game :) I love doing it anyway. Thanks again
spreadbetting
Posts: 3140
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

I notice today there must have been some problem with the 11.09 Romford as it wasn't settled until 12:02 and some of my bets weren't matched but I won £49 on the market. If it was higher or more of them I'd try and track down the reason why but these type of things occur with a regular basis with the dogs and usually have some simple reason that you can't code for so I'll ignore today's blip.

Unfortunately that's the reality of botting and you do have to accept whenever you place a trade with a bot you're also gambling on the closing bet being matched/accepted. Always makes me smile when you see people with their theorectical winning botting strategies as there's a world of difference doing this on paper to doing it on Betfair.
User avatar
mcgoo
Posts: 898
Joined: Thu Jul 18, 2013 12:30 pm

spreadbetting wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 12:37 pm


Unfortunately that's the reality of botting and you do have to accept whenever you place a trade with a bot you're also gambling on the closing bet being matched/accepted. Always makes me smile when you see people with their theoretical winning botting strategies as there's a world of difference doing this on paper to doing it on Betfair.
Aint that the truth :D I remember having the rose tinted glasses re automation 9 years ago..and still now, my main issue is one of functionality + technical capability combined with process gremlins :shock: :? .It blows the mind how far theory is from practice at this lot.
I often imagine there must be a dev team out there as we speak -if not already done-developing a machine learning/AI based app/rig that is going to act like the high frequency trading apps in investment banks, that I saw in the UK nearly10 years ago..but much much better ..happily making millions...and yet here I am running bots on 90 markets in one day and ending up( a little ) profitable using my clunky coding ability :mrgreen: Its a funny old world :ugeek:
User avatar
mcgoo
Posts: 898
Joined: Thu Jul 18, 2013 12:30 pm

Well almost made 100...99 markets yesterday and increased the little old bank by 10% and not one early suspension :shock: :mrgreen: :ugeek: ..step by step :) ....
PeterLe
Posts: 3715
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 3:19 pm

McGoo - Just a thought but do you have virtual bets switched in the settings area?
If you do, try switching it off and then compare/contrast etc...(if you have a second account ie your own or you wifes, run one with it switched on and one with it switched off. Cross matching off generally gives the better trades in my experience (better entry, but sometimes because of the Cross matching you cant always trade out automatically at the price you want, but over time equals out)
Other things to look for; can you simplify in anyway the entry and exits triggers? (Similar to Occams razor)..In the past Ive built very complex systems that virtually never trigger! Strip out what you dont need (like a stranded plane in the desert with just enough fuel to get airborne!) The simpler systems are always the best.
You may be doing this already, but always green at the reverse price or just above it (makes a massive different over time)...

(Just an exercise, extract you bet history to excel for this bot and see what profits you would have made if they were straight backs or lays). This will give you an idea if you are entering at a value position and visa versa
Regards
Peter
User avatar
ruthlessimon
Posts: 2094
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

It is interesting adding that metric.

I personally like the simplicity of Peter's (the other Peter ;) ) win formula ("(1*(DID IT WIN)-(1/ODDS))")

Below is a preoff edge I'm activity working on atm. What's interesting - is applying that formula to both the entry & exit prices.

Entry = -2.15%
Exit = -1.32%

Which, I believe, suggests money is being left on the table
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

ruthlessimon wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 1:55 am
It is interesting adding that metric.

I personally like the simplicity of Peter's (the other Peter ;) ) win formula ("(1*(DID IT WIN)-(1/ODDS))"
With both entry and exit price EWRs (excess win rates) being negative, does that mean you have a net figure of - 0.83%? I guess it's that as a - ve EWR would benefit the back bet but be detrimental to the lay. Or is it the other way round?
User avatar
ruthlessimon
Posts: 2094
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

One last example before I pop to bed - just because some might argue a 300 trade sample isn't big enough *ahem Shaun* (this ones much better 900ish trades, although the edge isn't quite as strong) - although I haven't traded this one yet

Painfully calculating the p&l (using back & lay prices)

+£1,148 (833 trades) - average of about £1.40 a race

Applying Peter's formula:

Entry: +1.18%
My exit: 1.14%
BFSP: 0.98%

And again I think a lot can be read into those figures.

1. Again my exit is actually pretty bad - & there's an argument to let the trade run (annoyingly I don't have inplay data :x )
2. In non-generic circumstances, SP isn't fair
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
ruthlessimon
Posts: 2094
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

ShaunWhite wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 2:25 am
With both entry and exit price EWRs (excess win rates) being negative, does that mean you have a net figure of - 0.83%? I guess it's that as a - ve EWR would benefit the back bet but be detrimental to the lay. Or is it the other way round?
No, I think it means the inefficiency wasn't cleaned up (during my trade) - & the fact my exit is occurring while it's still -ve; means I'm actually causing an inefficiency myself - because I'll be filling a guy still exploiting the edge
User avatar
mcgoo
Posts: 898
Joined: Thu Jul 18, 2013 12:30 pm

PeterLe wrote:
Thu Oct 18, 2018 9:57 pm
McGoo - Just a thought but do you have virtual bets switched in the settings area?
If you do, try switching it off and then compare/contrast etc...(if you have a second account ie your own or you wifes, run one with it switched on and one with it switched off. Cross matching off generally gives the better trades in my experience (better entry, but sometimes because of the Cross matching you cant always trade out automatically at the price you want, but over time equals out)
Other things to look for; can you simplify in anyway the entry and exits triggers? (Similar to Occams razor)..In the past Ive built very complex systems that virtually never trigger! Strip out what you dont need (like a stranded plane in the desert with just enough fuel to get airborne!) The simpler systems are always the best.
You may be doing this already, but always green at the reverse price or just above it (makes a massive different over time)...

(Just an exercise, extract you bet history to excel for this bot and see what profits you would have made if they were straight backs or lays). This will give you an idea if you are entering at a value position and visa versa
Regards
Peter
Thanks for those suggestions Peter.Never thought of the virtual bet thing.Will check it out. I did simplify my entry greatly as I too discovered too tight=no trades. I get a lot of trades now but managing the exit has been a strong focus in smaller markets especially. It seems to work but will take your suggestions on board and do some data analysis/configuring :geek: :D
LinusP
Posts: 1871
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2012 10:45 pm

PeterLe wrote:
Thu Oct 18, 2018 9:57 pm
McGoo - Just a thought but do you have virtual bets switched in the settings area?
If you do, try switching it off and then compare/contrast etc...(if you have a second account ie your own or you wifes, run one with it switched on and one with it switched off. Cross matching off generally gives the better trades in my experience (better entry, but sometimes because of the Cross matching you cant always trade out automatically at the price you want, but over time equals out)
Other things to look for; can you simplify in anyway the entry and exits triggers? (Similar to Occams razor)..In the past Ive built very complex systems that virtually never trigger! Strip out what you dont need (like a stranded plane in the desert with just enough fuel to get airborne!) The simpler systems are always the best.
You may be doing this already, but always green at the reverse price or just above it (makes a massive different over time)...

(Just an exercise, extract you bet history to excel for this bot and see what profits you would have made if they were straight backs or lays). This will give you an idea if you are entering at a value position and visa versa
Regards
Peter
+1
mcgoo wrote:
Thu Oct 18, 2018 8:08 am
Aint that the truth :D I remember having the rose tinted glasses re automation 9 years ago..and still now, my main issue is one of functionality + technical capability combined with process gremlins :shock: :? .It blows the mind how far theory is from practice at this lot.
I often imagine there must be a dev team out there as we speak -if not already done-developing a machine learning/AI based app/rig that is going to act like the high frequency trading apps in investment banks, that I saw in the UK nearly10 years ago..but much much better ..happily making millions...and yet here I am running bots on 90 markets in one day and ending up( a little ) profitable using my clunky coding ability :mrgreen: Its a funny old world :ugeek:
No need to imagine, its happening, aim high.
Post Reply

Return to “Bet Angel - Automation”