Botty Challenges

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spreadbetting
Posts: 3140
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

I notice today there must have been some problem with the 11.09 Romford as it wasn't settled until 12:02 and some of my bets weren't matched but I won £49 on the market. If it was higher or more of them I'd try and track down the reason why but these type of things occur with a regular basis with the dogs and usually have some simple reason that you can't code for so I'll ignore today's blip.

Unfortunately that's the reality of botting and you do have to accept whenever you place a trade with a bot you're also gambling on the closing bet being matched/accepted. Always makes me smile when you see people with their theorectical winning botting strategies as there's a world of difference doing this on paper to doing it on Betfair.
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mcgoo
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spreadbetting wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 12:37 pm


Unfortunately that's the reality of botting and you do have to accept whenever you place a trade with a bot you're also gambling on the closing bet being matched/accepted. Always makes me smile when you see people with their theoretical winning botting strategies as there's a world of difference doing this on paper to doing it on Betfair.
Aint that the truth :D I remember having the rose tinted glasses re automation 9 years ago..and still now, my main issue is one of functionality + technical capability combined with process gremlins :shock: :? .It blows the mind how far theory is from practice at this lot.
I often imagine there must be a dev team out there as we speak -if not already done-developing a machine learning/AI based app/rig that is going to act like the high frequency trading apps in investment banks, that I saw in the UK nearly10 years ago..but much much better ..happily making millions...and yet here I am running bots on 90 markets in one day and ending up( a little ) profitable using my clunky coding ability :mrgreen: Its a funny old world :ugeek:
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mcgoo
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Well almost made 100...99 markets yesterday and increased the little old bank by 10% and not one early suspension :shock: :mrgreen: :ugeek: ..step by step :) ....
PeterLe
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Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 3:19 pm

McGoo - Just a thought but do you have virtual bets switched in the settings area?
If you do, try switching it off and then compare/contrast etc...(if you have a second account ie your own or you wifes, run one with it switched on and one with it switched off. Cross matching off generally gives the better trades in my experience (better entry, but sometimes because of the Cross matching you cant always trade out automatically at the price you want, but over time equals out)
Other things to look for; can you simplify in anyway the entry and exits triggers? (Similar to Occams razor)..In the past Ive built very complex systems that virtually never trigger! Strip out what you dont need (like a stranded plane in the desert with just enough fuel to get airborne!) The simpler systems are always the best.
You may be doing this already, but always green at the reverse price or just above it (makes a massive different over time)...

(Just an exercise, extract you bet history to excel for this bot and see what profits you would have made if they were straight backs or lays). This will give you an idea if you are entering at a value position and visa versa
Regards
Peter
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ruthlessimon
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It is interesting adding that metric.

I personally like the simplicity of Peter's (the other Peter ;) ) win formula ("(1*(DID IT WIN)-(1/ODDS))")

Below is a preoff edge I'm activity working on atm. What's interesting - is applying that formula to both the entry & exit prices.

Entry = -2.15%
Exit = -1.32%

Which, I believe, suggests money is being left on the table
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ShaunWhite
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ruthlessimon wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 1:55 am
It is interesting adding that metric.

I personally like the simplicity of Peter's (the other Peter ;) ) win formula ("(1*(DID IT WIN)-(1/ODDS))"
With both entry and exit price EWRs (excess win rates) being negative, does that mean you have a net figure of - 0.83%? I guess it's that as a - ve EWR would benefit the back bet but be detrimental to the lay. Or is it the other way round?
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ruthlessimon
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One last example before I pop to bed - just because some might argue a 300 trade sample isn't big enough *ahem Shaun* (this ones much better 900ish trades, although the edge isn't quite as strong) - although I haven't traded this one yet

Painfully calculating the p&l (using back & lay prices)

+£1,148 (833 trades) - average of about £1.40 a race

Applying Peter's formula:

Entry: +1.18%
My exit: 1.14%
BFSP: 0.98%

And again I think a lot can be read into those figures.

1. Again my exit is actually pretty bad - & there's an argument to let the trade run (annoyingly I don't have inplay data :x )
2. In non-generic circumstances, SP isn't fair
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ruthlessimon
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 2:25 am
With both entry and exit price EWRs (excess win rates) being negative, does that mean you have a net figure of - 0.83%? I guess it's that as a - ve EWR would benefit the back bet but be detrimental to the lay. Or is it the other way round?
No, I think it means the inefficiency wasn't cleaned up (during my trade) - & the fact my exit is occurring while it's still -ve; means I'm actually causing an inefficiency myself - because I'll be filling a guy still exploiting the edge
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mcgoo
Posts: 898
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PeterLe wrote:
Thu Oct 18, 2018 9:57 pm
McGoo - Just a thought but do you have virtual bets switched in the settings area?
If you do, try switching it off and then compare/contrast etc...(if you have a second account ie your own or you wifes, run one with it switched on and one with it switched off. Cross matching off generally gives the better trades in my experience (better entry, but sometimes because of the Cross matching you cant always trade out automatically at the price you want, but over time equals out)
Other things to look for; can you simplify in anyway the entry and exits triggers? (Similar to Occams razor)..In the past Ive built very complex systems that virtually never trigger! Strip out what you dont need (like a stranded plane in the desert with just enough fuel to get airborne!) The simpler systems are always the best.
You may be doing this already, but always green at the reverse price or just above it (makes a massive different over time)...

(Just an exercise, extract you bet history to excel for this bot and see what profits you would have made if they were straight backs or lays). This will give you an idea if you are entering at a value position and visa versa
Regards
Peter
Thanks for those suggestions Peter.Never thought of the virtual bet thing.Will check it out. I did simplify my entry greatly as I too discovered too tight=no trades. I get a lot of trades now but managing the exit has been a strong focus in smaller markets especially. It seems to work but will take your suggestions on board and do some data analysis/configuring :geek: :D
LinusP
Posts: 1871
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2012 10:45 pm

PeterLe wrote:
Thu Oct 18, 2018 9:57 pm
McGoo - Just a thought but do you have virtual bets switched in the settings area?
If you do, try switching it off and then compare/contrast etc...(if you have a second account ie your own or you wifes, run one with it switched on and one with it switched off. Cross matching off generally gives the better trades in my experience (better entry, but sometimes because of the Cross matching you cant always trade out automatically at the price you want, but over time equals out)
Other things to look for; can you simplify in anyway the entry and exits triggers? (Similar to Occams razor)..In the past Ive built very complex systems that virtually never trigger! Strip out what you dont need (like a stranded plane in the desert with just enough fuel to get airborne!) The simpler systems are always the best.
You may be doing this already, but always green at the reverse price or just above it (makes a massive different over time)...

(Just an exercise, extract you bet history to excel for this bot and see what profits you would have made if they were straight backs or lays). This will give you an idea if you are entering at a value position and visa versa
Regards
Peter
+1
mcgoo wrote:
Thu Oct 18, 2018 8:08 am
Aint that the truth :D I remember having the rose tinted glasses re automation 9 years ago..and still now, my main issue is one of functionality + technical capability combined with process gremlins :shock: :? .It blows the mind how far theory is from practice at this lot.
I often imagine there must be a dev team out there as we speak -if not already done-developing a machine learning/AI based app/rig that is going to act like the high frequency trading apps in investment banks, that I saw in the UK nearly10 years ago..but much much better ..happily making millions...and yet here I am running bots on 90 markets in one day and ending up( a little ) profitable using my clunky coding ability :mrgreen: Its a funny old world :ugeek:
No need to imagine, its happening, aim high.
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gutuami
Posts: 1858
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if bf notices something like AI on their markets they will introduce a 90% premium charge :roll: . They like charges :)
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mcgoo
Posts: 898
Joined: Thu Jul 18, 2013 12:30 pm

PeterLe wrote:
Thu Oct 18, 2018 9:57 pm


(Just an exercise, extract you bet history to excel for this bot and see what profits you would have made if they were straight backs or lays). This will give you an idea if you are entering at a value position and visa versa
Regards
Peter
How very interesting My back bets profit twice as much as lay bets -over 250 trades only though..hopefully that continues..back bets only return 2.5% on turnover but is interesting
Nigel's spreadsheet analysing by track and race is also very insightful. One track already shows comparatively large Lay bet profit but time will tell.The good thing is I am building data up pretty fast (perhaps nearly 700 trades a week) so hopefully something really stands out over time and its not just another break-even bot :) :ugeek: Thanks again for the pointers.
Last edited by mcgoo on Sat Oct 20, 2018 1:12 am, edited 1 time in total.
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mcgoo
Posts: 898
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gutuami wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 2:58 pm
if bf notices something like AI on their markets they will introduce a 90% premium charge :roll: . They like charges :)
No doubt :D
PeterLe
Posts: 3715
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 3:19 pm

mcgoo wrote:
Sat Oct 20, 2018 12:44 am
PeterLe wrote:
Thu Oct 18, 2018 9:57 pm


(Just an exercise, extract you bet history to excel for this bot and see what profits you would have made if they were straight backs or lays). This will give you an idea if you are entering at a value position and visa versa
Regards
Peter
How very interesting My back bets profit twice as much as lay bets -over 250 trades only though..hopefully that continues..back bets only return 2.5% on turnover but is interesting...
OK, I haven't read the full thread so not sure if you are backing first...either-way, you may want to look at how you place your lay bets...One thing you can do via excel is create a way if scenario; you can calculate what would have happened if you had placed the lay bets at one tick lower, two ticks lower etc and define at what point you would have made a profit...this is a good yard stick
If over a long period (250 is no where near enough), you find that the back bets are much more in profit than the lays, you can drop the lays and just have the backs going forward. You will have much longer periods of losing bets (as you are not greening up) but over time it will maximise your profits
(also when you have enough of your own data, you can then look at other possibilities...ie what would have happened if you had backed all the lays etc)
Im keen to know if you tried switching cross matching off too. (it will be less apparent pre off than in play, but over time will make a difference)

Regards
Peter
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bennyboy351
Posts: 332
Joined: Sat Jun 07, 2014 6:01 pm
Location: West Midlands, England.

mcgoo wrote:
Sat Oct 20, 2018 12:47 am
gutuami wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 2:58 pm
if bf notices something like AI on their markets they will introduce a 90% premium charge :roll: . They like charges :)
No doubt :D
IMO, Betfair are just greedy b*stards! I mean, they are GUARANTEED a winner/profit on EVERY trade aren't they? I wish there were many more trading platforms 'out there' so that Betfair's virtual Monopoly could be reigned in! Any chance, Peter? :-)
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