Laying at high odds.

[Jukebox]

If I changed this to have a liability of 100% of my balance I would make £5 less commission but lose £50 if it won.

Remember to check your maths too - you'll be disappointed if you find those fivers turn out to be 50pences

[Bigd85]

The problem of laying a horse when it reaches 100 in-running is, although the horse has little chance of winning, that's reflected in the price. And it may only require one winner in 300 for you to make a loss, because there will be a large number that go out too quickly for you to get a lay in - but you'll certainly lay the one that comes back to win!

I remember seeing a 5-furlong two-year-old race at Chester; the winner broke fast, led to the furlong pole, was oh so briefly headed before regaining the lead and going on to win - traded 330 in-running. You don't want to be laying horses like that just because other people are laying 100.

People who have little understanding of value are often far too hasty to write off a selection's chances, so you'd be better off doing some research into backing IR at big odds - possible big wins for small stakes as opposed to peanuts for huge risks.

I know PeterLe has a botting strategy that takes advantage of giveaways IR, as well LinusP. I'm sure there will be others and it's probably the best way to go.

Appreciate your input Derek.

I see things happen but not 100% sure to incorporate it into an automation.

I also don’t want to try something have it work for a while on practice mode and then blow it on live.

It’s getting the balance right.

You also see a lot of people who are getting amazing results and always want a piece of it.

Patience is key I suppose but after a few months I just feel like I’m failing. And without the time to do things live I’m reliant on automation.

you should probably take the time to video as many races as your hard drive will fit (ok, OTT - as many as you feel you need!). From there, I would walk thro those in slow mo paying particular attention to (as a simple example):

1. Book % on back book
2. Gaps between back and lay odds
3. LTP when the gaps are present
4. VELOCITY of changes that you are observing
5. Race makeup when the above items are at play

I can't say that you'll immediately *get it* but after a time, you'll start to see correlations that only occur when x,y and z are in place.

Keep notes and catalogue those videos to try and cross ref them at a later stage. Sounds geeky but the markets are too fast to absorb at the level of detail required if purely observing. Of course, the same excercise can be followed if you are proficient at programming and have an api account.

Thank you. Sounds a good idea to me. Do you mean do a screen record of betangel or the actual races?

Is there any good software to record this?

Thank you for your help guys.

[Derek27]

If I changed this to have a liability of 100% of my balance I would make £5 less commission but lose £50 if it won.

Remember to check your maths too - you'll be disappointed if you find those fivers turn out to be 50pences

I missed that bit.

Any strategy that risks 100% of your balance is doomed to fail when you have a loss and you'd have to refund your bank and start again.

Regarding recording software see the thread below.

viewtopic.php?f=30&t=309

[jimibt]

Thank you. Sounds a good idea to me. Do you mean do a screen record of betangel or the actual races?

Is there any good software to record this?

Thank you for your help guys.

screen record the BA session (record the actual races if you love being bored tho ).

From that you'll be able to step thro the changes and make decent notes. There's a bunch of recording apps out there, the one i've used in the past (and a few on here) is: https://obsproject.com/

[Bigd85]

Thank you. Sounds a good idea to me. Do you mean do a screen record of betangel or the actual races?

Is there any good software to record this?

Thank you for your help guys.

screen record the BA session (record the actual races if you love being bored tho ).

From that you'll be able to step thro the changes and make decent notes. There's a bunch of recording apps out there, the one i've used in the past (and a few on here) is: https://obsproject.com/

Thanks jimibt

I’ll give it a download and have a play tomorrow with it and see if I can understand what is going on.

Appreciate the guidance.

Hopefully I can get my head around things

Cheers

[Dallas]

There's a good guide here on setting it up to record while your away from your PC
viewtopic.php?f=30&t=13065

[Bigd85]

There's a good guide here on setting it up to record while your away from your PC
viewtopic.php?f=30&t=13065

thank you Dallas

[jimibt]

There's a good guide here on setting it up to record while your away from your PC
viewtopic.php?f=30&t=13065

+1 -semantics may change with different software, but principles there are spot on..

[Bigd85]

Thanks guys

Now just need to get my head around what is happening, what to look for, and how to make a profit.

Apart from all of those I think I’ve got it sussed.