BetConnect - New Social Betting Platform

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spreadbetting
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I think seahorse is being a bit optimistic if he thinks this will change the industry, I see it as being a very niche market. The 'pros' are bound to be beating SP so it's not going to take long for the punters accounts to be closed or limited if they're punting with bookies and taking prices. We all know how quick bookies are to limit you regardless of your stakes if you beat SP. I'd considered it simply for small arbs and to hopefully be laying the useless 'pros' , of which I imagine will be the majority, to relatively decent amounts but if it's all split into 5's and 20's I'm much better off simply x-market arbing on Betfair.
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Derek27
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SeaHorseRacing wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:31 am
I was wrong about bet connect!!

This is going to be bigger then betfair!!!
Strange, I just packed it up because I was getting sick of £2.50 each way bets that I was unable to trade for a profit!
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Derek27
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spreadbetting wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 12:31 pm
SeaHorseRacing wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:31 am
I was wrong about bet connect!!

This is going to be bigger then betfair!!!
Why's that Seahorse? I've an invite but never bothered registering as Derek said he was only matching bets for small amounts.
I should point out that I only deposited £200 and set a maximum liability as such. I don't know if setting a larger liability will actually result in bigger bet requests.
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Derek27
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SeaHorseRacing wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 1:35 pm
I’ve opened a punter account..

I will never need to use another bookie ever again...

No searching for the best odds, no worrying about account closer... and no premium charge... yet.

If 9 out of 10 bookies are going 7/4 on a price and one is going 15/8. I can ask for the 15/8 without any other hassle...
People will also stop using the exchanges for match betting. I can take someone’s bet as a punter account and open a new bookie account and copy the bet... and get a free bet.

This is going to have a very bad effect to the exchanges long term..

Imo... whether this becomes the new platform what it will do is revolutionise the betting industry.. bookie will have to change.. whether that means bookmarking again I’m not sure.

The majority of all new accounts being opened with bookmakers will be people copying a professionals bet... thus meaning the majority of people taking value bets just to get a free bet competely risk free.

This will change the betting industry.
I'd be fascinated to know how much of your 'pro' bets would get matched. The Oddschecker site is often out of date. You sometimes get a bookie offering 13 when all the others are offering 6, and you know without looking that it's wrong. So a lot of bet requests will be rejected because the price is no longer available.
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Derek27
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I've got to know the 'pros' habits - unfortunately you can't choose which pros you get bet requests from and if you unlock one but don't accept it it will affect your punter rating and position in queue for further bets. I reckon some of the pros are arbers who simply go for prices you can trade on the exchange, rather than aiming for a profit.
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SeaHorseRacing
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Derek27 wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 4:47 pm
I've got to know the 'pros' habits - unfortunately you can't choose which pros you get bet requests from and if you unlock one but don't accept it it will affect your punter rating and position in queue for further bets. I reckon some of the pros are arbers who simply go for prices you can trade on the exchange, rather than aiming for a profit.

That’s interesting as I’m registered as pro and not punter...
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Derek27
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SeaHorseRacing wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 5:35 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 4:47 pm
I've got to know the 'pros' habits - unfortunately you can't choose which pros you get bet requests from and if you unlock one but don't accept it it will affect your punter rating and position in queue for further bets. I reckon some of the pros are arbers who simply go for prices you can trade on the exchange, rather than aiming for a profit.

That’s interesting as I’m registered as pro and not punter...
Do the 'pros' have access to the 'punters' activity and bets taken, in the same way punters can see the pros ROI%?
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Derek27
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SeaHorseRacing wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 5:35 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 4:47 pm
I've got to know the 'pros' habits - unfortunately you can't choose which pros you get bet requests from and if you unlock one but don't accept it it will affect your punter rating and position in queue for further bets. I reckon some of the pros are arbers who simply go for prices you can trade on the exchange, rather than aiming for a profit.

That’s interesting as I’m registered as pro and not punter...
Any chance of an update - have you been getting laid (no pun intended ;) )?

I've been barred from all bookies now and I'm already missing arbing so I'm thinking of going back. I've gathered you can now block selected 'pros' if you don't like their bets.
sportingcraig
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I’ve been a small-stakes ‘layer’ on Betconnect for a couple of months now, really just as an experiment to see what it’s all about. I’ve deposited at total of £380, and I’ve currently got £22.90 left in my account – this means that ‘Pro’ backers have profited, via my bookie and exchange accounts (I backed elsewhere every £ that I layed to the Pros), to the tune of £357.10. Well done the Pro backers!

I occasionally got a wee bit of value by backing at top bookie odds – perhaps boosted by BOG, which the Pro doesn’t benefit from – or a net exchange price that gave me a profit if the selection went on to win, as quite clearly many of the ones that I layed did. Therefore, my experiment probably earned me about £25, or something like that (I didn’t keep detailed records, as I was just having a nosey at the concept and couldn’t be bothered logging it all).

From my experiences, I can certainly see merit in Betconnect’s business model. However, I feel that they’re still quite a long way from getting the Pro / Layer balance right.

Firstly, and most importantly, who is going to allow his or her set of good bookie accounts to be abused by an arber? This is 2018, not 1998 or even 2008, and we all know that blatant arbing of soft books against the machine, or against smart books, is only going to end in tears – and swiftly too. There’s a lot more to be made from skilful bonus abusing than there is from short-term slash and burn arbing. (Skilful arbing is a different matter, but there are relatively few who do that).

A few weeks ago I received a phone call from some guy at Betconnect who wanted to chat with me about my experiences so far. They’re a start-up, and they’re still learning themselves, so fair enough. It became immediately clear that Betconnect are fully aware of the big problem of arbers, and similar 'pests', upsetting their ecosystem.

Absolutely anyone can become a successful arber if they’re gifted an endless supply of virgin accounts via an intermediary such as Betconnect – simply subscribe to Rebel Betting, or one of numerous similar arb-finding tools, make sure to cover Betconnect’s 3% commision by only selecting higher % arbs – and the rest is assured profit. Hence the new ‘Block a Pro’ feature available to layers (the clue’s in the name). A very welcome, and necessary, addition.

It’s early days for Betconnect, and I’m not exactly sure how the business model will settle in to some sort of equilibrium between backers and layers. Quite simply, there has got to be something decent in it for the layers. Yes, BOG on the gee gees is always very welcome – if your account has still got it! Other bonuses such as bet clubs (Paddy Power 5 x £10 bets & get £10 free bet, for example) are nice little earners when used skilfully (52 x £10 = £520 per year in free bets, from just one firm – and that’s before even thinking about friends and family!)

However, when looking at BOG and other bonuses, I don't know if Betconnect's proposition offers layers much that knowledgeable bookie account holders can’t do for themselves. (If they’re not ‘knowledgeable’, they’re probably not going to last long anyway – they’ll soon do their dough one way or another.)

So can Betconnect create a sustainable future for themselves? Sure they can.

What’s a ‘pro punter’? Forget arbers and bonus abusers (although they’re both lucrative professions when done right). I don’t know anything about sports betting, I’m 100% a racing guy, have been for 4+ decades. My idea of a pro bettor is a hugely diligent form student who can grind a profit out of the bookies, or perhaps one of the fairly small minority of ‘connections’ who are rooted on planet earth and know how to make their equine hobby/business pay.

Got a strong fancy and want to have it off with the bookies? Not easy, is it? Yes, of course there’s the exchanges – but we all know about the liquidity issues before the market becomes live just before the off. The fact is, if you’re a profitable punter at Betfair SP then it’s very probable that you would have done better – sometimes much better – if backing at bookies’ early prices instead. BOG is the icing on the cake, of course, but how many shrewdies have BOG? Few, if any – having any live account is a major achievement in itself.

So let’s look at our form student. He or she grinds out a % profit on bets, but using public form there’s got to be a ceiling of how high that ROI% can be. It’s okay, but there is definitely a ceiling. The form student can get on, for low stakes, with the few remaining bookie accounts that they might have left. There’s always the shops, but not everyone lives in a city – try consistently taking £00s out of a shop where they know your face, and see how long your warm welcome lasts. Not long at all.

So what to do?

There’s been a significant development over the past year or so, with the likes of Bet Victor, Coral and Betfair SB offering to lay any horse to lose £500 on races – sometimes all races, and sometimes just on higher class races – perhaps only on the win book but not each way (perfectly understandable, thieves abound out there). This is where the pro might be able to use Betconnect.

Grinding out 5%, 10% or even 15%+ on the gee gees is all very well, but just how many rock-solid bets does our form student find each week? It’s probably fewer than it is more.

He or she needs to get £1K, £2K or possibly more on at a fairly decent price, a few times a week. Absolutely impossible for a winning backer, even with so-called ‘guaranteed books’ such as Bet Victor (the gubbings have already started).

So who you gonna call? Betconnect!

If a professional backer plays it sensibly, and doesn’t just hold out for top-of-the-market prices each and every time, Betconnect layers will be interested. Let's say Bet Victor is offering 2/1 – Lay the Pro £250/£125 and match that for yourself with Victor, £500/250. If the pro is just that, both will win good money in the long run and everyone will be happy (including Betconnect, 3% of £250) – except Victor, of course.

If the backer / layer ecosystem isn’t win-win sustainable, which means a SUSTAINABLE PROFITS FOR BOTH, then Betconnect are going nowhere. The idea of using layers’ accounts for straightforward arbing is going nowhere either – Betconnect don’t want you, and only the most naive layer is going to accommodate arbers. Full sets of bookie accounts are a valuable resource – very valuable if you know what you’re doing with them (or are prepared to learn).

These are just my thoughts. They could be nonsense (it’s a known issue), but they're my conclusion after a couple of months with Betconnect.

I’d very much welcome feedback from / conversation with anyone else having hands-on experience of Betconnect. Conversely, if you’re ‘Betconnect curious’ but haven’t tried them out yet, I’m happy to discuss my (fairly limited) experiences so far.
Last edited by sportingcraig on Sun Dec 16, 2018 11:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Derek27
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Welcome to the forum sportingcraig.

I've concluded that, unless you're a losing punter but still take betting seriously and want the best prices, the only purpose for a full set of bookie accounts is to extort as much money as you can out of them, while you can. It has to be done quickly as it's a race against time. :)

I know there are a lot of tips around on how to keep your account going but there's not much point in making money from a good arb, or even a straight bet, if you then have to spend hours looking for break-even arbs on odds-on favourites to appease the bookie. I recently opened a new bookie account for just one week, 19 bets, 5 winners, £450 profit and they've already restricted me. I even placed two free bets on a 7/1 and 12/1 and they both went in!! I've heard some bookies restrict you for beating SP even if you don't win.

I think betconnect is a brilliant idea and I wish them every success, which is partly why I'm happy to use the service, but there is a major problem with the idea. If the 'pros' are using it because they've been restricted by bookies the betconnect 'punters' who copy their bets will end up with the same problem.

I mentioned earlier in this thread that I think some of the betconnect backers are arbers but I'm not so sure now. I stopped arbing with the last bookie I had and let the bets run (still think of it as arbing) because it's more profitable so it's quite possible some of the BC backers are form students that spot value or cold traders who seek value by finding jinks in the market.
sportingcraig
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Thanks for the welcome Derek. I didn’t even realise that was my maiden post, I’ve been an occasional visitor – and lurker – here for a few years. A Google search for Betconnect brought me to this thread.

I think you’ve hit the nail on the head, there could well be a fault line in Betconnect’s model.

According to Betconnect’s PR around their pre-launch, there are potentially three ways for layers to make profits with them.

Firstly, layers can do just that, and take on the risk of the bet themselves.

Alternatively, layers can match Pros’ bets and back the same stake with the bookies, hoping to profit from price boosts, BOG, free bet clubs, win by 2+ lengths boosts and various other bonuses.

Finally, layers can identify winning Pros and copy their bets, so if laying the Pro £25 at 4/1 the layer would bet, perhaps, £50 with the bookie at 4/1. BOG or other bonuses could help here too.

So, layers can hunt out and connect with ‘pros’ who are actually so bad that it’s profitable for the layer to stand their bets? Sounds great in theory, but why are such poor judges going to continue using Betconnect? They’ll throw in the towel sooner rather than later, probably when they run out of funds to lose. This is backed up by analysing the performance of the Betconnect Pros.

As of this afternoon, there are 84 Pros who’ve had at least one bet. The 84 have had between them 6,552 bet requests matched by layers for a total of 9,167 points, and are showing a small gross loss of 92 points, which is -1% ROI. Actual net losses will be higher, as Betconnect deduct their 3% commission from all winning bets.

A minority of the Pros actually win money, only 38 of the 84, which is just over 45%.
These 38 winning Pros backed 4,843 of the 6,552 bet requests, which is nearly 74%.
The 38 winning Pros had 872 connections with layers, which is nearly 71% of total connections.

For me these figures confirm what logic would suggest. Winning Pros are far more active, with nearly three times as many bets struck as losing ‘Pros’. The 46 losers, who account for nearly 55% of the 84 Pros, only have about 26% of the bets. They tend to just give up and quit using Betconnect after incurring their losses.

I don’t see much mileage in layers trying to identify losing Pros and connecting with them. By the time it becomes clear that a losing Pro really is useless and hasn’t just been experiencing a bit of bad luck, in other words when their sample size becomes reasonable, that losing Pro will probably be about ready to quit anyway.

Sure, if you’d layed each and every bet request to date you’d be showing a profit of 1% on turnover, but is that likely to continue into the future? I doubt that it will. The existing small number of winning pros will probably still keep betting with Betconnect layers, probably gradually ratcheting up their stakes as their banks grow. Over time, new Pros will join Betconnect and the Darwinian selection process will be repeated for each intake. The losers will go extinct, and the winners will stay with Betconnect, increasing their stakes over time.

So that leaves us with the winners, and to Derek’s point about bookmakers inevitably closing winning accounts. A layer who accommodates a winning Betconnect Pro will simply have to back with the bookies, as if they stand the bets themselves they’ll be cleaned out.

As mentioned in my post above, some firms such as Bet Victor now offer separate, ‘guaranteed odds’ books, where they’ll lay a horse to lose £500 to any customer. But those separate books rarely offer top market odds, which tends to be exactly what Betconnect Pros ask for.

Therefore, most layed bets will subsequently be backed on ‘normal’ bookmaker accounts. Once the account holder is identified as a value taker, restrictions will follow.
...the only purpose for a full set of bookie accounts is to extort as much money as you can out of them, while you can. It has to be done quickly as it's a race against time.
Absolutely correct there, Derek. Betconnect might become a useful outlet for the growing number of multi-account holders, particularly once the current 0% exchange commission war comes to an end, as surely it must.

One thing that Betconnect could do is to enable layers to make counter offers to Pro backers. There are still some line trackers among the Pros, who only ever ask for top market odds, often standout prices. This isn’t good for bookmaker account longevity, as their customer profiling algorithms will soon pick up on this behaviour. Why shouldn’t a layer be able to counter with what he feels is a more realistic price?

Currently, layers can only take or leave a bet request – too many of the latter, and the layer faces the risk of being shuffled to the back of the queue for future bets. I feel that this procedure is weighted against the layer – it’s got to be equally fair to both parties, or the Betconnect ecosystem won’t be in balance over the longer term.
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Derek27
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chris2785 wrote:
Fri Jun 21, 2019 1:32 pm
What does everyone think of Betconnect, you can take on the Pro and lay his / her bet only, or back it yourself, in the hope the Pro knows their stuff.

Interesting concept

Chris
From my experience most of the 'pros' are arbers - they only tip horses at prices above what the exchange is offering.
pwayman
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Just came across this post and was wondering whether anyone had used this platform seriously? I saw the 0% commission and so used the £50 introductory offer although havent gone much further. Wondering if anyone else had more experience of using it properly?
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ilovepizza82
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I just saw this on twitter:
"At #Betconnect all horse racing bets will attract 0% commission for the whole of November."

Looks like a pretty decent offer (and opportunities) me thinks.
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Euler
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Latest accounts released today, show they have burnt through £4.5m so far.
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