That's where the contradiction comes in. If I'm involved on a daily basis the cost of me would kill a start up. I'd have to just be a non executive or advisor.
I've taken to trying to influence other exchanges, but they suffer from the same corporate malaise as Betfair. It just reminds me of working for a large corporate, a brick wall to bash your head against is definately a viable alternative.
Honest Joe betting exchange
I agree Peter that the way forward is to be a true disrupter in the market, as it is in all markets. I work closely with a financial company that have been a disrupter in the financial futures and options market in the US. The game changer for them was to build a platform that was far easier to use than its competitors, as well as targeting new customers with education. The value they offer in commissions is important too, but mainly to bigger traders who dont make up a huge number of their customers
That comment is something that doesn't to me seem to fit your normal outlook. It is a short term view looking at what income you would miss in the short term rather than the huge wealth you could generate in the long term.
Betfair at float was valued at £1,390,000,000.
As a founding member of your new exchange you would be in line for a considerable portion of such a flotation valuation and if you were able to achieve what you think you can it is likely to be valued at much more.
I am sure you have more money now than you need so don't need to actually trade day in day out so are in a great position to take the 'risk' be it with some of your money and time or just your time. If any one could raise funding for such a venture I would think it would be you with your contacts in silicone valley you spend time nurturing with your trips to America.
Wouldn't it be an amazing legacy to leave behind, to be able to say you changed an entire industry for the better (and made a fortune in the process, much more than you could ever dream of making from trading).
Betfair's shares were offered at £13 yesterday morning, valuing Betfair at £1.39bn, but ended the day 250p higher at £15.50.
While Betfair's biggest shareholders, including founders Edward Wray and Andrew Black, who had put 10pc of their stock into the float, lost out on those gains, it makes the value of their remaining stakes far higher.
However, Betfair's owners raised £211m in yesterday's IPO. Mr Wray stands to make £18.9m and Mr Black £16.6m from the flotation, if an overallotment option is also exercised. They will then have stakes of 10.7pc and 10.2pc respectively.
- ShaunWhite
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I was involved at a senior level in implementing liquidity pooling in the City in the 90's and I think you're massively underestimating the complexity and I don't mean with the technology, that's relatively easy. Even when you've overcome the cross-border contractual issues you have the problem of coordinating and funding changes to a large number of disparate 3rd party pre-existing in-house systems to enable them to interface with your new exchange. They're not going to perform surgery on their existing setups without a clear and assured benefit. We had enough problems doing that with LiquidNet let alone with a startup like you're suggesting. That said, it's a 30 year old idea so the issues I came across may well have new solutions these days.
If you're planning on drawing a big wage for being involved in your own start-up then forget it. Venture capitalists want to see you putting your hand in your own pocket not just theirs, even more so when you're already a multi-millionaire !! You've going to draw blanks if you turn up with that attitude.
Venture capital isn't hard to find for the right projects so I suggest you get your in-principlal contracts signed from your prospective liquidity providers (without whom you're nothing), and then test the temperature of the water.
Out of interest, you say came from financial trading, who was it that you worked for? I got around quite a bit so we might know some of the same people.
I've been involved or close to a number of start ups, so I aware nobody is going to pay you a wage it will all be equity based. I spent a lot of time on the VC scene during the dot com boom. I'm just not sure I would go for a package where they said if I slogged away till I was nearly 70 I'd possibly get a pay off. I'd rather be the guiding hand now as I've earned my spurs and worked my butt off already in a number of roles. I know I could do, just not sure I want to.
It would help if they had a back all and lay all button, and he could have at least got a friend to open an account and be a mini-market maker. Not sure about this though:-
If a new ‘non-runner’ is declared, all bets (matched and unmatched) are voided and refunded for the race in question (i.e. for all horses) and then betting markets for that race are reopened again.
Surely that would wipe out the majority of markets??
If a new ‘non-runner’ is declared, all bets (matched and unmatched) are voided and refunded for the race in question (i.e. for all horses) and then betting markets for that race are reopened again.
Surely that would wipe out the majority of markets??
- ShaunWhite
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Sorry I took it that you'd be a cost. The other issue with VC as you know is that they plan their exit almost before their entry. 70? You 'll be lucky to retaining a decent part of your business until you're 60 let alone keep it as a legacy.
I respect you for everything you've achieved but if I may say so you've very much promoted yourself as a manual trader (albeit one of the best), so perhaps it would be easier for someone from a tech/city background to gain traction as the front man in this arena; which has very little to do with actual trading and more to do with the infrastructure. But as you say, in a consultative role regarding the features, presentation, promotion, credability and what constitutes an attractive offering, etc etc, you'd be invaluable.
But also like you, as the years roll by and already having a comfortable lifestyle, summoning up the energy and enthusiasm to go back to 18hr days gets harder. If I was 30 again I'd be in the car on the way down south to twist your arm and see what we could do, the idea's got legs, but as it is I think I'll just stay flopped in my comfy chair.
We might just be betting against each other.
- ShaunWhite
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Therein lies the problem. You need lots and lots of losers who are,
a) smart enough to get their head round an exchange instead of using the easy peasy sportsbook, but
b) not so smart they either end up winning or giving it up quick as a mugs game.
The Venn diagram of potential customers gets pretty small pretty fast.
...and then you only take 1 or 2% from people? If average Joe blows £30 a week that's 30p. Even 100,000 Joes (that's 0.3% of the entire adult population, yeah dream on) is only 30k, nothing after overheads. Globally its doable at scale, but just the UK? They must have got Derren Brown to do the pitch.
- ShaunWhite
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- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
I don't think he needs a deposit, he needs a gift aid donation of £3 a month for famine relief.
You can't fault a trier though as you say. Fair play to him.