Winning Warlock be careful of wrong horse data

[BetScalper]

I have great success using Warlock data but then again I don’t go for 50% like you greedy lot.

My strategy goes for a more modest 35%

[firlandsfarm]

A few years ago, I remember a website called Daily Donkey that advised lays and showed consistent profits. After further inspection, you could see he used industry SP prices to calculate his P/L, rather than Betfair's best lay prices at inplay time.

Yep, spotted that very quickly … I thought "Donkey" referred to the people who followed him!

Fair enough, Dallas, that makes sense, someone needs to have a word with that ignorant Warlock guy

In fairness to Warlock he does explain that …

The '% of BSP' percentages are worked out as implied odds and not as a direct comparison of the BSP to IPMIN. To go from 4.0 to 2.0 (a DOB), the implied odds would go down from 3/1 to evens in traditional bookmaking prices and this is what is calculated (the 1 point stake is removed from both the BSP and IPMIN).

As for the rest of this debate (yes I'm over a year late!) I think it's simple use of tightly defined language … "50%BSP" is not the same as "50%BSP Odds" … 50%BSP is what's used for dobbing whereas 50%BSP Odds is what I use in some of my systems.

[Charles1980]

Would be interested to see what your selection criteria is, because I have done a spreadsheet of all of their results since 2014 and blindly backing them all at £10 to either DOB or reach 35% would result in significant loss!

Of the selections at 4.0 and above, 5824 reached a target of 35%, and 3755 didn't.
4446 successfully reached 50%, 5133 didn't.

The picture doesn't improve if you include under 4.0 selections either.

I've spent quite some time researching this method and it's put me off altogether, as it simply doesn't look profitable, no matter what % you aim for. Would be happy to be proved wrong though!

[BetScalper]

Would be interested to see what your selection criteria is, because I have done a spreadsheet of all of their results since 2014 and blindly backing them all at £10 to either DOB or reach 35% would result in significant loss!

Of the selections at 4.0 and above, 5824 reached a target of 35%, and 3755 didn't.
4446 successfully reached 50%, 5133 didn't.

The picture doesn't improve if you include under 4.0 selections either.

I've spent quite some time researching this method and it's put me off altogether, as it simply doesn't look profitable, no matter what % you aim for. Would be happy to be proved wrong though!

You can’t just back all the potential ones and make a profit long term.

Many factors involved.

- is the potential runner the favourite.
- is there an odds on favourite in the race.
- distance.
- course conditions.
- handicap mark.
- etc

The above will determine how quickly the potential runner shortens, if at all.

[soccersaint]

Just out of interest .. do you have any stats for Favs that touch 1.5 in play ?

Would you be better off looking at market position rather than previous data.

Given that 33% ish win the vast majority don’t ever get to look like winning...

Don’t give up on Dobbing altogether ... there is a few other angles to try...

IMHO