lay bot _ when do you get [real]

Learn sports betting strategies and discuss key factors to consider when placing a bet.
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liero1
Posts: 36
Joined: Mon Sep 24, 2018 3:28 pm

Hi,

newbie question here for sure.. I have, after many failing bots (RIP :( !!), one prospect that seems promising. Still in testing mode so no real money used yet.

Which number of bets would you deem appropriate for calling it a day on the virtual monies and using real money..?

Some background data - 187 bets matched, 64 not matched, 176 lay wins, 11 lay losses. max lay loss 135 versus 9.80 lay win profit. This gives me 2.9% ROI based on liability. implied lay odds vs lay odds taken is 23% edge.

Image

After having strategies before that seemed great on testing mode and failing with real money :oops: , I wonder if I go 'live' too early.. My idea here would be to wait to maximum of 1,000 bets - if still positive ROI, going live.
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Dallas
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Location: Working From Home

From the 4th paragraph down is the relevant part relating to your question
viewtopic.php?f=17&t=15692
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

It might be worth you running the strategy live now with very small stakes and comparing the results with another instance of BA running the same strategy in Practice Mode. That way you can judge how much is lost just by transitioning a strategy that's seems viable in test, to live. There will always be some difference, knowing what that difference is likely to be might give you more comfort when looking at test results and figuring if they might hold up.
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liero1
Posts: 36
Joined: Mon Sep 24, 2018 3:28 pm

Thanks guys!

Is that roi ok in your eyes for a lay strategy?
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Anything positive is OK so long as the drawdown isn't too horrific (drawdown being the most the strategy balance dips from a previous high).

Does your chart factor in the commission?
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liero1
Posts: 36
Joined: Mon Sep 24, 2018 3:28 pm

Ok cool. I thought so for laying - as you won’t get a big roi compared to liability ..

Yes it does. These are fictional 10 stakes so 9.80 is the profit. Max drawback so far was about 250 as you can see above.
LinusP
Posts: 1871
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2012 10:45 pm

liero1 wrote:
Mon Oct 15, 2018 6:55 pm
Ok cool. I thought so for laying - as you won’t get a big roi compared to liability ..

Yes it does. These are fictional 10 stakes so 9.80 is the profit. Max drawback so far was about 250 as you can see above.
I assume this is inplay judging by the match rate? This could cause issues if you find that you get matched at a lower rate live.

I would always recommend going live ASAP with minimum stakes, what odds are you laying at?
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liero1
Posts: 36
Joined: Mon Sep 24, 2018 3:28 pm

Ok will run real and virtual together tomorrow. Got average lay odds 13.10 at the moment over those two 190 bets
CarlosGB74
Posts: 7
Joined: Wed Sep 13, 2017 11:27 pm

How did the strategy work out? I´ve been very interested in laying greyhounds.

Cheers!
eightbo
Posts: 2154
Joined: Sun May 17, 2015 8:19 pm
Location: Malta / Australia

ShaunWhite wrote:
Mon Oct 15, 2018 4:56 pm
It might be worth you running the strategy live now with very small stakes and comparing the results with another instance of BA running the same strategy in Practice Mode. That way you can judge how much is lost just by transitioning a strategy that's seems viable in test, to live. There will always be some difference, knowing what that difference is likely to be might give you more comfort when looking at test results and figuring if they might hold up.
I'm sure it depends on what you're doing but this was not very useful for me when I was testing HR In-Play automation, I noticed that one would commonly trigger whilst the other would not. I suspected this was due to them cycling the refresh at slightly different times. If that was the case, I wondered whether there was perhaps some IT hack to sync up the two applications but seemed like a lot of effort so I just settled for multiple practice variants then progressing to live with the most promising after racking up a lot of markets (assuming that the trigger issue would balance out over time)
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