Winning strategy that doesn't work anymore.

Learn sports betting strategies and discuss key factors to consider when placing a bet.
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globi166
Posts: 93
Joined: Fri Mar 02, 2018 10:24 am

Hi all,

Im sure some of you had a winning strategy that stopped working.

My question is at what point do you know its not working anymore? Let say that you use to make profit with it for a 12 months and now you start seeing unusual drawdowns. So at what point you decide to stop it before will lose all your profits ??
guy333
Posts: 52
Joined: Sun Aug 16, 2015 9:47 am

If I ever work out a strategy that makes a profit for more than 3 consecutive days then I will get back to you.
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Euler
Posts: 24704
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

If you have year on year data then check that against itself to see what has changed and if you can exploit that.

I don't really count any strategy as a winning one unless it's run at least a year as most markets are seasonal in sports.
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Derek27
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Location: UK

globi166 wrote:
Mon Oct 22, 2018 1:10 pm
Hi all,

Im sure some of you had a winning strategy that stopped working.

My question is at what point do you know its not working anymore? Let say that you use to make profit with it for a 12 months and now you start seeing unusual drawdowns. So at what point you decide to stop it before will lose all your profits ??
How long is a piece of string?

It all depends on the nature of the strategy, frequency of bets/trades, whether it was profitable week by week, month by month, year by year, etc.
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LeTiss
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Joined: Fri May 08, 2009 6:04 pm

One of the things I've noticed that has changed, is the book %

In days gone by, you could quite often predict which way the market was going to move, once the book % was near to 100%

A couple of ticks scalped was routine, easy money. Whereas today, the moves are quite often in the opposite direction to what you would have expected in the past. The markets are more volatile IMO
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ruthlessimon
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Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

I like going into excel & actively practice "destroying a strategy".

This strategy was one based on something I gave to Shaun last month. Today, I've gone back into excel & am literally in the process of testing it to complete destruction - like Peter mentions - in order to hone the variables. Iteration 4 & 5, clearly don't work, but had I stopped, I'd have never reached the promised land of iterations 1, 2, 3. Although, I will say, it's a nightmare just to find a clear deviation like this
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Last edited by ruthlessimon on Mon Oct 22, 2018 4:04 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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ruthlessimon
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In fact, I've literally just noticed iteration 1 is losing so much initially; meaning that the initial conditions could be a reversible edge.
Last edited by ruthlessimon on Mon Oct 22, 2018 4:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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MemphisFlash
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Location: Leicester

How long is a piece of string?
A piece of string is twice the distance from the centre to the end.
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Derek27
Posts: 23478
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

MemphisFlash wrote:
Mon Oct 22, 2018 3:46 pm
How long is a piece of string?
A piece of string is twice the distance from the centre to the end.
Alright smart arse. ;)
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globi166
Posts: 93
Joined: Fri Mar 02, 2018 10:24 am

ruthlessimon wrote:
Mon Oct 22, 2018 3:21 pm
I like going into excel & actively practice "destroying a strategy".

This strategy was one based on something I gave to Shaun last month. Today, I've gone back into excel & am literally in the process of testing it to complete destruction - like Peter mentions - in order to hone the variables. Iteration 4 & 5, clearly don't work, but had I stopped, I'd have never reached the promised land of iterations 1, 2, 3. Although, I will say, it's a nightmare just to find a clear deviation like this
This looks very good! How to get spreadsheet like that? If you dont mind saying ?
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ruthlessimon
Posts: 2094
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

globi166 wrote:
Mon Oct 22, 2018 5:01 pm
This looks very good! How to get spreadsheet like that? If you dont mind saying ?
Worth looking in the following parts of the forum:

Spreads: viewforum.php?f=31
Data: viewforum.php?f=54

Pretty sure, the majority of the stuff I use today can be traced back to those threads

i.e. viewtopic.php?f=54&t=16014
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globi166
Posts: 93
Joined: Fri Mar 02, 2018 10:24 am

ruthlessimon wrote:
Mon Oct 22, 2018 5:22 pm
globi166 wrote:
Mon Oct 22, 2018 5:01 pm
This looks very good! How to get spreadsheet like that? If you dont mind saying ?
Worth looking in the following parts of the forum:

Spreads: viewforum.php?f=31
Data: viewforum.php?f=54

Pretty sure, the majority of the stuff I use today can be traced back to those threads

i.e. viewtopic.php?f=54&t=16014
Thnak you kindly.
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