Help with an automation system

Learn sports betting strategies and discuss key factors to consider when placing a bet.
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Slippery Richie
Posts: 20
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2016 10:02 pm

Hello,

I've been experimenting with a number of automated strategies on horses for about a year now. One of my systems is showing a 25% ROI over 10 months or so with a sample size of around 1200 bets. Another has a 10% ROI for 2300 bets.

I'm still concerned whether they work long term and am unsure whether up stakes. They are basic strategies and I can't figure out why they are profitable - having spent hours upon hours of studying spreadsheets I'm starting to think that the systems shoudn't be profitable.

Surely the sample sizes I referred to are large enough?
Should I just pull the trigger and increase stakes?

Any input/thoughts welcome
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

The biggest stand out from your message is 'pull the trigger', that's not really a helpful way to think about it and it's obvioulsy freaking you out a bit and becoming a factor in your decision. I'd be more inclined to increase stakes by a very small amount and do it often. You shouldn't really have a day when you pull the trigger, just one where you realise that the tigger has been pulled.

I don't know what stakes you've been using but adding 1% a day or maybe 5% a week might be a way for you to get over any anxiety about scaling up.

If this is something you haven't actually tried in a live situation then you should try it asap imo, your sample is plenty big enough and if you wait long enough it'll probaly die anyway as most edges come and go, or at least wax and wain. Unless you actually try it with money you won't know if you've got a profitable strategy or not.
Slippery Richie
Posts: 20
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2016 10:02 pm

ShaunWhite wrote:
Mon Jan 21, 2019 5:32 pm
The biggest stand out from your message is 'pull the trigger', that's not really a helpful way to think about it and it's obvioulsy freaking you out a bit and becoming a factor in your decision. I'd be more inclined to increase stakes by a very small amount and do it often. You shouldn't really have a day when you pull the trigger, just one where you realise that the tigger has been pulled.

I don't know what stakes you've been using but adding 1% a day or maybe 5% a week might be a way for you to get over any anxiety about scaling up.

If this is something you haven't actually tried in a live situation then you should try it asap imo, your sample is plenty big enough and if you wait long enough it'll probaly die anyway as most edges come and go, or at least wax and wain. Unless you actually try it with money you won't know if you've got a profitable strategy or not.
Thanks for the response.

I for some reason hadn't thought of gradual stakes increase, will def look into that.

Yes I have been using real money, I started all systems with penny stakes and have upped once but not by greatly.

My main thought is that I can't prove why the systems work
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Good luck with it. If you don't ever find the reason but still make money, then never mind eh ;) or to put that more eloquently, this is the kind of spirit you need when trading sometimes ....

"Forward, the Light Brigade!"
Was there a man dismay’d?
Not tho’ the soldier knew
Some one had blunder’d:
Theirs not to make reply,
Theirs not to reason why,
Theirs but to do and die:
Into the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred


:roll: Pseud alert!

Or if Delboy is more your style "He who dares wins" :D
Slippery Richie
Posts: 20
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2016 10:02 pm

ShaunWhite wrote:
Mon Jan 21, 2019 6:49 pm
Good luck with it. If you don't ever find the reason but still make money, then never mind eh ;) or to put that more eloquently, this is the kind of spirit you need when trading sometimes ....

"Forward, the Light Brigade!"
Was there a man dismay’d?
Not tho’ the soldier knew
Some one had blunder’d:
Theirs not to make reply,
Theirs not to reason why,
Theirs but to do and die:
Into the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred


:roll: Pseud alert!

Or if Delboy is more your style "He who dares wins" :D

Haha thanks, Delboy is def a bit more my style.

Think im going to begin to increase stakes gradually
LinusP
Posts: 1871
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2012 10:45 pm

Have you read this? (And the links contained)

viewtopic.php?t=16208
mickypaul72
Posts: 115
Joined: Tue May 15, 2018 1:52 pm

I've been on here for just over 6 months now and in my short time i have found that a successful strategy is one that gets 'matched ' just something to think about as you increase your stakes.

Good Luck
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Slippery Richie wrote:
Mon Jan 21, 2019 8:15 pm
Haha thanks, Delboy is def a bit more my style.
haha ditto really, but when you go to an old fashioned grammar school up the road from where Tennyson lived, it sort of gets drilled into you, whether you like it or not.
Slippery Richie
Posts: 20
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2016 10:02 pm

LinusP wrote:
Mon Jan 21, 2019 8:21 pm
Have you read this? (And the links contained)

viewtopic.php?t=16208
Thankyou. Some useful stuff in there
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