Newbies Trading in the Dark

Learn sports betting strategies and discuss key factors to consider when placing a bet.
Post Reply
Zenyatta
Posts: 1143
Joined: Thu Mar 11, 2010 4:17 pm

Ferru123 wrote:I can't believe that you're seriously advocating having an unlimited downside!
Read what I said. Pre-race the maximum downside (in practice) is 15-20 ticks, because the prices rarely move further than that (although occasionally it does happen).

I just dislike the stop-losses because I've been screwed over so many times. Inevitably the price eats through my stop-loss, only to come back again most of the time.. there is nothing more frustrating.
Iron
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

Zenyatta wrote: Read what I said. Pre-race the maximum downside (in practice) is 15-20 ticks, because the prices rarely move further than that (although occasionally it does happen).
You advocated having no stoploss - I don't think I misread you.

Does anyone have any stats on how often markets move more than 15-20 ticks?

You didn't answer my question re. your upside - Do you aim for x ticks, or do you just let the market do its thing and close just before the off?

And how do you manage your staking?
Zenyatta wrote:I just dislike the stop-losses because I've been screwed over so many times. Inevitably the price eats through my stop-loss, only to come back again most of the time.. there is nothing more frustrating.
There is actually - I find it more frustrating for a small loss to become a huge loss!

A trader I know once came up with an analogy. If your car is rolling down a hill, do you apply the brakes or just hope it will stop rolling? If the trend is making me money, my foot will be going nowhere near the break pedal. But if I'm losing money, I'm not going to rely on gravity being kind to me! :lol: And given the way trends self-perpetuate, that is a good metaphor.

Jeff
Iron
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

Zenyatta wrote: Read what I said. Pre-race the maximum downside (in practice) is 15-20 ticks, because the prices rarely move further than that.
I thought I'd keep an eye out today for such moves, to see how rare they actually are.

I found one in the 14:10.

Jeff
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Iron
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

And another!

Personally, I wouldn't ride a trend like that to the top for a big loss, when my potential upside was a single tick scalp! You'd have to have an eye-wateringly high strike rate to make it pay! :)

Jeff
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Iron
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

You'd have just and so managed to keep your shirt with this unfortunately named horse, but for me it would be a bit too much stress for a single tick gain. :)

Jeff
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
No Sea to Rough
Posts: 27
Joined: Sat Sep 10, 2011 6:11 pm
Location: East Midlands

Dear All,

I just want to say as a newbie to BA and the forum trying to make a consistent profit is a minefield.

Thanks for all the constrictive and helpful advice.
redeagle60
Posts: 3
Joined: Fri Nov 09, 2012 9:08 am

Essential things to remember in trading...
What goes up..must come down..and what goes down must come up, make the best of these trends and dont get greedy.

Reading charts whilst trading is essential, If you get into a maze youll have trouble finding your way out, But with some sort of map it would help you alot more, Its the same thing here.

Look out for big money that effect the market..this may drive the trend up/down but will suddenly return to its original position.

good luck
PeterLe
Posts: 3715
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 3:19 pm

redeagle60 wrote:Essential things to remember in trading...
What goes up..must come down..and what goes down must come up,
Not always! :)
hgodden
Posts: 1759
Joined: Thu Apr 16, 2009 2:13 pm

PeterLe wrote:
redeagle60 wrote:Essential things to remember in trading...
What goes up..must come down..and what goes down must come up,
Not always! :)
Good point, there are few unbreakable rules in this jungle ;)
freddy
Posts: 1132
Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2010 8:22 pm

redeagle60 wrote:Essential things to remember in trading...
What goes up..must come down..and what goes down must come up, make the best of these trends and dont get greedy.
Please tell me which markets these are
it must be really easy to trade them :D .

If you would have said what goes up very often comes down i would have agreed ;)
redeagle60 wrote: Reading charts whilst trading is essential, If you get into a maze youll have trouble finding your way out, But with some sort of map it would help you alot more, Its the same thing here.
Helpful to some people but not essential.
redeagle60 wrote: Look out for big money that effect the market..this may drive the trend up/down but will suddenly return to its original position.
Agree :D
Last edited by freddy on Fri Nov 09, 2012 3:49 pm, edited 2 times in total.
NR169
Posts: 61
Joined: Tue Oct 11, 2011 9:40 am

"What goes up must go down"

Except the ones that dont!!

:?
ijamieson
Posts: 27
Joined: Fri Nov 16, 2012 2:14 am

Great post!
User avatar
Steven Smith
Posts: 3
Joined: Thu Mar 07, 2013 10:41 am
Location: u.k

Thank you for your informative post.
I am one of those in the dark and I look forward to following you observations and comments.
threedogs
Posts: 79
Joined: Mon Jan 20, 2014 10:24 am

Hi,
I find your post very interesting however you keep saying 'after tax' and as there is no betting tax I wondered what you were referring to?
LinusP
Posts: 1871
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2012 10:45 pm

threedogs wrote:Hi,
I find your post very interesting however you keep saying 'after tax' and as there is no betting tax I wondered what you were referring to?
The premium charge...

http://www.betfair.com/aboutUs/Betfair.Charges/
Post Reply

Return to “Betfair trading strategies”