Losing strategies wanted

Learn sports betting strategies and discuss key factors to consider when placing a bet.
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Iron
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xitian wrote:I do have a similar strategy that offers money, and that too is profitable. Offering money is a lot harder to backtest though, as you can never know if someone would have taken your money if it were there waiting on the order book.
Very interesting point.

One way of testing offering vs taking would be to offer and take at random using £2 stakes, with stops of x and offsets of y, and see which leads to the least loss.

Something that would need to be taken into account would be the opportunity cost, i.e. the times when, had I taken from the queue rather than offered and not got filled, my offset would have been hit. That is, you may be missing out on lots of successful trades by waiting to be filled. With a random system, that means you will lose less money, but if you have an edge it could mean that you will make less money.

Jeff
Iron
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Euler wrote:Any comment probably needs to have a caveat inserted.
I agree. There's a lot to be said for writing with clarity and precision. :)

Jeff
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Euler
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On this particular point, imagine the market is random and moves from one random point to another. How do you expect taking to be better than offering?
Iron
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Let's assume that, in this random market, I have an edge. Let's also assume that the fill rate is low.

If, by taking, I can make two trades in the time someone else makes one trade, then my overall profit may be higher than theirs (even though their profit per trade is higher). Also, if they are offering to close, then they may take bigger losses than I do by taking to close.

However, theoretically, in a truly random market, it doesn't matter what you do - it all evens itself out, and the expected long-term negative edge is the same. It seems to me that you only get an edge through offering in a random market if you're up against enough 'impatient traders' who create inefficient liquidity by entering at non-optimal places.

However, in a market that's not random but is moving with gusto in a particular direction, if I offer in the direction of the market then few people will be interested in accepting my offer. If a market is rapidly drifting, and I offer at 6.0 (along with everyone else who wants to ride the move), I might miss the boat if the market doesn't stop to catch its breath till it reaches 6.4-6.6.

Jeff
Euler wrote:On this particular point, imagine the market is random and moves from one random point to another. How do you expect taking to be better than offering?
Wyndon
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Thanks for all the responses. I feel that this could form the basis of a first law of trading. "Taking the best price on offer on a random basis will always lead to a loss in the long run". This may prevent the loss of an awful lot of time and money for people like me who thought that with a bit of 'clever' manipulation the loss inherent in the spread could be overcome. Does anyone know any other axioms which could usefully be employed in designing a strategy?
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Euler
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Ferru123 wrote:Let's assume that, in this random market, I have an edge.
Contradiction
Iron
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Well, yes, although I did acknowledge that in my post! :)

I was merely illustrating the principle that taking may be better than offering if your fill rate is low.
Euler wrote:
Ferru123 wrote:Let's assume that, in this random market, I have an edge.
Contradiction
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Euler
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I guess it all depends on whether you feel you can definitely find a trend. There are instances where I will take, simply because I know the price is certain to head in one direction, so I'm switching from benefit from market characteristics to anticipating them and trying to beat others to the chase. But that tends to be a small part of the overall picture.
steven1976
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Also the market could act different for two different people doing the same thing Jeff. Say the draw price on football is coming in and at 2s, you back for 2 quid and the market holds there with 1000 quid for 5 mins so your 2 quid is exposed for a long period. However, in the same scenario someone else has the same opportunity and they take the 1000 quid and offer a further 5k on the back side. The result of the event will still be the same at the final outcome but the market could act totally different because of stake size in my opinion.

I think sometimes people look at the outcome of the event as being efficient rather than finding some value in the short term movements to which you don't actually care about the final outcome.
LinusP
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Euler wrote:Curiously, I did eventually find a consistently losing strategy. But I'm not in a position to share it unfortunately.
Why would you not want to share this Peter?
marko236
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LinusP wrote:
Euler wrote:Curiously, I did eventually find a consistently losing strategy. But I'm not in a position to share it unfortunately.
Why would you not want to share this Peter?
His losing strategy is so good you can probably do the exact opposite and make money? That's what i think.
LinusP
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So Peter started this thread to steal strategies?
Iron
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It's hardly theft if people share their ideas in a public forum.
LinusP wrote:So Peter started this thread to steal strategies?
marko236
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LinusP wrote:So Peter started this thread to steal strategies?
No, Peter is so good at winning strategies which probably means he's also good at finding losing ones and the best losing stratgie he's got may show how he trades?
LinusP
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In the original post Peter didn't ask for it to be posted on the forum.
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