Losing strategies wanted

Learn sports betting strategies and discuss key factors to consider when placing a bet.
Post Reply
NinjaLizard
Posts: 13
Joined: Sat Jun 14, 2014 9:04 am

And yet another early goal in the arsenal game tonight 1m30s again :lol: has to be a losing strategy...
User avatar
Euler
Posts: 24701
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

And Liverpool
NinjaLizard
Posts: 13
Joined: Sat Jun 14, 2014 9:04 am

Yeah I saw that too. Can't help but think backing under 2.5 goals is a lot safer than backing 0-0 or maybe backing over 2.5/3.5 as well as backing 0-0 could provide a little bit of insurance or even a double whammy if you get out of the 0-0 at the right time.
threedogs
Posts: 79
Joined: Mon Jan 20, 2014 10:24 am

I have a cracking losing strategy
Join Brimardon and back every bet they recommend
You will soon be £5000 down just like i was
Seriously learn from Peter at Betangel, keep it simple use small stakes to start learn how to lose and never trade in running always before the race and you will profit
User avatar
Crazyskier
Posts: 1157
Joined: Sat Feb 06, 2016 6:36 pm

Blindly automating the best back price (+1) on the favourite greyhound is resulting consistently in the eventual matched price then shortening. This is 7 minutes prior to the off right upto the point at which the bet is matched.

I have been caught by this SO many times; the lack of liquidity and ability to move prices so radically with just £20 stakes is the issue...
magwitch78
Posts: 55
Joined: Wed Sep 30, 2015 8:26 pm

ive been backing fallen horses now for the past week. yet to win a penny *taps nose*
User avatar
harsh
Posts: 131
Joined: Tue Jul 18, 2017 1:26 am

steven1976 wrote:
Tue Sep 16, 2014 1:31 pm
Try it on a horse about 10s. Your thinking that as a result of a race it would break even over time. Put a 10 pound back or lay into the market and do nothing else other than sell out when the next move happens either against you or with you for 1 tick. You may be surprised how random, random really is.
it is.
User avatar
ruthlessimon
Posts: 2094
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

Been working on this throughout April (pre-off lay strat - following trends), decided to fully incorporate all the favourites, & I get this equity curve (400 trades)

Peter if you're interested I'll drop you a message :)

Image
LinusP
Posts: 1871
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2012 10:45 pm

ruthlessimon wrote:
Mon Apr 30, 2018 5:13 pm
Been working on this throughout April (pre-off lay strat - following trends), decided to fully incorporate all the favourites, & I get this equity curve (400 trades)

Peter if you're interested I'll drop you a message :)

Image
What does it look like if you flip it?
User avatar
ruthlessimon
Posts: 2094
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

Swap the lay for a back, there aren't stops & targets hence why it's completely inverted - I personally, along with another member have doubts as to whether this is an inherent bias or just the byproduct of randomness

Image
User avatar
ruthlessimon
Posts: 2094
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

Just noticed the scale is off, gonna quickly find out why that's the case
LinusP
Posts: 1871
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2012 10:45 pm

ruthlessimon wrote:
Mon Apr 30, 2018 5:47 pm
Swap the lay for a back, there aren't stops & targets hence why it's completely inverted - I personally, along with another member have doubts as to whether this is an inherent bias or just the byproduct of randomness
But you want to give it away?
User avatar
ruthlessimon
Posts: 2094
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

I'd bet Peter already knows; & the problem is this pattern is consistent on data where it shouldn't.

Changing the variables don't affect the equity curve. I've got 30 variations of this strategy, all they're all negative (each roughly the same amount) - & the ones I hoped would be zero expectancy aren't.

Hence why I think wtf is going on with this!!

(btw the scaling error was 97, not 397 :lol: )
User avatar
ruthlessimon
Posts: 2094
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

For 10 iterations (delayed entry), in a sheer profitability sense, they all fall roughly around -200ticks, hence why there are serious questions - iteration 0 (a blind time-based lay) shouldn't be that negative imo

Image
User avatar
ruthlessimon
Posts: 2094
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

Just got today's afternoon data (not used in the above graphs). 5 trades, 3 losers, 2 scratches - 15:40 got marked as a large loser -13ticks

(iteration 8) Image
Post Reply

Return to “Betfair trading strategies”