EU Membership Referendum (Brexit)

Betfair trading & Punting on politics. Be aware there is a lot of off topic discussion in this group centred on Political views.
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BetScalper
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I'm finding it all very funny. :lol:
Emmson
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Euler has been remarkably prescient all the way through this thread while not being ideological. Quite a feat
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Dallas
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I'll be keeping my eye on a few markets tonight ahead of what Brussels decides for us
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Dallas
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Some interesting early charts in the upcoming Euro election 'Most Seats' market
Brexit.JPG
Lab.JPG
Cons.JPG
CUK.JPG
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ShaunWhite
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8 May
21:00 BBC4

Part 1
Storyville
Brexit: Behind Closed Doors
Episode 1 of 2

The gripping untold story of the Brexit negotiations... from the other side. For two years, Belgian film-maker, Lode Desmet, has had exclusive access to the Brexit co ordinator of the European parliament, Guy Verhofstadt, and his close knit team. This revelatory fly-on-the-wall film captures the off-the-record conversations and arguments of the European negotiators as they devise their strategy for dealing with the British.

Episode one watches as the Europeans’ respect for a formidable negotiating opponent turns into frustration and incredulity as the British fail to present a united front. At moments funny and tragic, it ends with the debacle in December 2017 when Theresa May flies in to Brussels to finalise details of a deal and is publically humiliated by her coalition partner, Arlene Foster of the DUP, who refuses to support the deal.
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ShaunWhite
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Dallas wrote:
Wed May 08, 2019 11:44 am
Some interesting early charts in the upcoming Euro election 'Most Seats' market

Brexit.JPG

Lab.JPG

Cons.JPG

CUK.JPG
It's a shame so many people are going to vote for a pressure group rather than parties with fully rounded policies that cover wider and far more important issues. The frustration is understandable but tragically naive as to the consequences.
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firlandsfarm
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Wed May 08, 2019 2:33 pm
It's a shame so many people are going to vote for a pressure group rather than parties with fully rounded policies that cover wider and far more important issues. The frustration is understandable but tragically naive as to the consequences.
If you are voting to show you want to be out of the EU then that will be your most important issue because it affects just about everything else and if we do leave the EU then all else in the UK EU Election manifestos will be irrelevant! :)
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BetScalper
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Wed May 08, 2019 2:33 pm
Dallas wrote:
Wed May 08, 2019 11:44 am
Some interesting early charts in the upcoming Euro election 'Most Seats' market

Brexit.JPG

Lab.JPG

Cons.JPG

CUK.JPG
It's a shame so many people are going to vote for a pressure group rather than parties with fully rounded policies that cover wider and far more important issues. The frustration is understandable but tragically naive as to the consequences.
Shaun,

Not a criticism but a question. Which party in the UK has fully rounded policies ?

I think that’s the main problem, none of them do which means many will be forced to vote for one extreme or the other.

Personally I think the Labour Party voted in the wrong brother. He was as centre as you could probably get but is probably glad he never won the internal leadership contest and by all accounts is doing great work outside of politics.

If he was to come back then I am sure many (including me) would vote him into Number 10 ASAP.

Problem many of us have where we live is the fact that the EU and now our own Parliament is basically not fit for purpose in the 21st century etc.
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ShaunWhite
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BetScalper wrote:
Wed May 08, 2019 3:50 pm
Shaun,

Not a criticism but a question. Which party in the UK has fully rounded policies ?

I think that’s the main problem, none of them do which means many will be forced to vote for one extreme or the other.

Personally I think the Labour Party voted in the wrong brother. He was as centre as you could probably get but is probably glad he never won the internal leadership contest and by all accounts is doing great work outside of politics.

If he was to come back then I am sure many (including me) would vote him into Number 10 ASAP.

Problem many of us have where we live is the fact that the EU and now our own Parliament is basically not fit for purpose in the 21st century etc.
What I mean't by fully rounded was that they have policies that span economic affairs, education, defence, the welfare system, industrial policies etc...the whole 9 yards.. ie all the things that will need to be business as usual however we leave.....and lets face it for most people, being out won't change their life one bit. Even immigration will be the same or 'worse' as we'll just have people from far flung cultures rather than mostly from our cultural neighbours.

I agree with you about the wrong brother. I feel politically isolated for the first time in my 40 voting years (although a vote round here is always a vote wasted). I'd love a Labour party I could vote for again but out of my red, green and gold options I'll probably have to go 'green' not because they might win, but because the environment is the only real issue with life and death consequences and needs to be front and centre. Everything else seems futile.
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BetScalper
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Wed May 08, 2019 6:04 pm
BetScalper wrote:
Wed May 08, 2019 3:50 pm
Shaun,

Not a criticism but a question. Which party in the UK has fully rounded policies ?

I think that’s the main problem, none of them do which means many will be forced to vote for one extreme or the other.

Personally I think the Labour Party voted in the wrong brother. He was as centre as you could probably get but is probably glad he never won the internal leadership contest and by all accounts is doing great work outside of politics.

If he was to come back then I am sure many (including me) would vote him into Number 10 ASAP.

Problem many of us have where we live is the fact that the EU and now our own Parliament is basically not fit for purpose in the 21st century etc.
What I mean't by fully rounded was that they have policies that span economic affairs, education, defence, the welfare system, industrial policies etc...the whole 9 yards.. ie all the things that will need to be business as usual however we leave.....and lets face it for most people, being out won't change their life one bit. Even immigration will be the same or 'worse' as we'll just have people from far flung cultures rather than mostly from our cultural neighbours.

I agree with you about the wrong brother. I feel politically isolated for the first time in my 40 voting years (although a vote round here is always a vote wasted). I'd love a Labour party I could vote for again but out of my red, green and gold options I'll probably have to go 'green' not because they might win, but because the environment is the only real issue with life and death consequences and needs to be front and centre. Everything else seems futile.
Your not the only one who feels isolated Shaun. Many are and are being driven to political extremes. And lets face it, who could blame them.

DM has hinted that he is willing to come back into UK politics but the labour party would not want him in its current form.

He his living in upper New York and earning $360,000 per year doing what he loves and making a difference. Who the hell would want to give that up to come back to a political nightmare that his old party doesn't want.

For him to even hint at the fact that he would come back speaks volumes of the person. If i were him then I would stay where I was and live the rest of my life out knowing i was making a difference.

One thing is for sure, he wont come back while Corbyn, Thornberry, Cooper and Abbot are tugging the strings!!!
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ShaunWhite
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BetScalper wrote:
Wed May 08, 2019 9:24 pm
Your not the only one who feels isolated Shaun. Many are and are being driven to political extremes. And lets face it, who could blame them.
Personally the more extreme it's become the more I've moved back to the centre. And judging by the LD resurgence in the council elections I'm not the only one. The ends of the bell curve rarely hold the answers, so hopefully the disorganised shambles at both extremes will splinter and gray boring politics can resume as normal.
sionascaig
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From a local activist (in Edinburgh), from 5 days of door to door canvassing to determine voter intentions over the last 8 days (so several hundred visits):

- only 1 person found that said they will vote conservative
- only 1 person found was a Brexit supporter
- no one supporting the Change party or Ukip
- the area that did contain a significant number of Brexit supporters is now totally remain

Early indications looks like annihilation for any Brexit supporting party in Scotland...
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Euler
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The Brexit party will almost certainly crush the European elections as they don't really matter and the populace is in 'let's punish the politicians'.

The key to this is understanding how that influences things from there.
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superfrank
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Mike Greene is the Brexit Party candidate for the Peterborough by-election - a self-made millionaire from a humble background who has previously donated £250k to local charities in Peterborough. Sounds like a good bloke to me. We need more people in the HoC who have been successful in real life, not career politicians who've never had a proper job.

The deal between the Lib Dems, Green Party and Change UK to field a single Remain candidate has apparently been called off. Another attempt to subvert democracy typical of the leftist loser brigade.
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ShaunWhite
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superfrank wrote:
Thu May 09, 2019 11:06 am
The deal between the Lib Dems, Green Party and Change UK to field a single Remain candidate has apparently been called off. Another attempt to subvert democracy typical of the leftist loser brigade.
?Leaving or remaining isn't a left/right issue. That's sort of the whole point.

And the idea that 'real' people rather than politicians should run the HoC is naive in the extreme, politics is nothing like business in any way, shape or form. How many businesses do you know that are run by having their employees vote, businesses are dictatorships with short term goals. Trump is proving that when you have to work with other people it's very different.
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