EU Membership Referendum (Brexit)

Betfair trading & Punting on politics. Be aware there is a lot of off topic discussion in this group centred on Political views.
Post Reply
User avatar
ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Yep, millions of lives lost, wars won and then outwitted at every turn since. I can't find much form that says we won't get mugged off in negotiations with China and the US. I obviously hope I'm wrong but we're on a 70 year losing streak and the squad looks as weak as usual.
Wolf1877
Posts: 367
Joined: Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:59 am

ShaunWhite wrote:
Mon Aug 06, 2018 4:53 pm
As did everyone no doubt, the problem is that everyone voted for what they hoped for without knowing what was actually possible. The only certainty is that with only 52% wanting any sort of decoupling, the hardline leavers weren't the majority.

Anyone could see that there was never such a thing as a simple 'leave' and should see that there is no such thing as 'no deal'. Industry, medicines, energy security, food security, scientific research, defence, the air space, the land border etc etc etc and the 80% of national income which comes from the service sector, all require some sort of agreements to be in place, ie, deals. WTO is touted but apart from a few imports/exports it covers almost nothing.
Shaun, that is pretty much accepting every single obstacle and scare story put forward by the remain establishment as pure fact and as though it will cause the end of the world when it is anything but. These are all relatively short term issues that should be relatively easy to sort out. At the moment there are vested interests in making out these issues are impossible to sort out in trying to influence the shape of the future relationship. Once the basics are sorted and accepted the rest will very quickly fall into place.

Defence is currently nothing to do with the EU as it is governed by NATO agreements though the EU have have course announced the formation of an EU army since the referendum - something they denied would happen beforehand.

Air Space? Before the Iron Curtain fell Berlin was surrounded for 45 years by soviet controlled airspace. A more hostile regime to the West you could not find and yet they figured out a way to fly planes over each others territory both into Berlin and across the Soviet controlled Balkans en-route to the middle east etc. After the iron curtain fell all of those former Eastern Block countries figured out ways to share airspace agreements before they joined the EU. This is just a pure remain scare story. The EU aviation and tourist industry simply cannot afford to enter into an airspace war with the UK anymore than the UK aviation industry can afford it. Ryanair did a lot of posturing over this kind of stuff but recently announced an expansion down in Southend.

Services. I saw your post announcing that Lloyds of London were relocation to Brussels. Not really very accurate. They are actually moving 40 of 600 jobs in to Brussels in order to establish an EU base for selling insurance and financial services into the EU. The insurance underwriting will still remain in London. This is very much how things were before the 1992 Single Market established by Maastricht. Firms just opened a subsidiary in every place they needed to have an administrative base.

I accept that It may well be more difficult for UK nationals to work in the EU and vice versa depending on the agreement. Hopefully something sensible can be worked out there. That for me is the single biggest downside to Brexit.

ShaunWhite wrote:
Mon Aug 06, 2018 4:53 pm
Democracy just puts power in the hands of the least well informed (not brexit, I mean things like economic policy). Most great civilisations weren't democracies, they were benign dictatorships and that includes the Greeks and the Romans who's idea of democracy was quite different to ours and was more akin to a House of Lords.
I guess Hitler, Gadaffi, Saddam, Kim Jong Un and Assad would probably all have thought/think of themselves as being a benign dictator. I dont really see too many genuine benign dictatorships around the world these days. Sheikh Khalifa of the UAE is fairly benign I guess but I'm really struggling to think of another one. I'd rather take democracy thanks.

The great thing about the democratic process it ultimately keeps political leaders on their toes (though no hope for covert remainer May now) and mistakes can be rectified in due course at the next General Election. The great unwashed that you clearly consider unworthy of making democratic decisions can generally figure it out after the fact if a political wrong turn has been made. If things pan out as badly as you fear and we all manage to somehow survive the resulting famine, pestilence, power outages, medicine shortages, planes dropping out out of the sky, nuclear core meltdowns, wars and general breakdown of civilisation as we know it then maybe that will give you some hope for the possible future correction of what you consider to be a huge mistake. When all of those things dont happen post Brexit then I'm hopeful that more balanced views will finally return to concerned remainers like yourself.
User avatar
superfrank
Posts: 2762
Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 8:28 pm

ShaunWhite wrote:
Mon Aug 06, 2018 4:53 pm
The only certainty is that with only 52% wanting any sort of decoupling, the hardline leavers weren't the majority.
The question was IN or OUT.

Soft Brexits are just another version of IN, i.e. exactly what 52% didn't vote for. They are also a far stronger association with Europe than was ever envisaged, or mandated, when we joined the common market after the 1975 referendum.

Hard Brexit is just a term used by the media/establishment to portray leaving as some sort of extreme position, and as part of their strategy to overturn a democratic vote by any means necessary.
User avatar
BetScalper
Posts: 1139
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:47 pm

I found it funny what the Irish Prime Minister said.

He does realise that gas gets to the whole of Ireland via a pipe from the UK. Also the whole of Ireland is protected by sea and air via the Royal Navy and Royal Airforce by a standing agreement.

Next time he might want to keep his mouth shut....
User avatar
brimson25
Posts: 504
Joined: Sat Apr 08, 2017 11:42 am

EU ref before 2019 NO is 1.03 to LAY

Given that literally no-one has a clue what will happen that's a seriously short price.
User avatar
brimson25
Posts: 504
Joined: Sat Apr 08, 2017 11:42 am

1.04 now

This is swing trading, baby.... :D
User avatar
brimson25
Posts: 504
Joined: Sat Apr 08, 2017 11:42 am

2nd resignation of the morning. I feel as if there should be an easier way to make money out of this shambles. which is after all what counts....
User avatar
jimibt
Posts: 3641
Joined: Mon Nov 30, 2015 6:42 pm
Location: Narnia

brimson25 wrote:
Thu Nov 15, 2018 10:01 am
2nd resignation of the morning. I feel as if there should be an easier way to make money out of this shambles. which is after all what counts....
yup, it's a complete and utter mess. normally can think of a witty analogy, but in this case the fun seems to have stopped!
mobius
Posts: 203
Joined: Wed Oct 18, 2017 10:15 am

Shouldn't this be under Today's Racing, that's three fallers now, Raab, Mcvey and Vara and Betangel isn't working properly Peter didn't say:
"This event starts in five minutes, five minutes"
Wonder if they'll abandon the meeting?
:?:
User avatar
brimson25
Posts: 504
Joined: Sat Apr 08, 2017 11:42 am

I always find the 5 minute warning re-assuring. Perhaps that would help calm things down....
mobius
Posts: 203
Joined: Wed Oct 18, 2017 10:15 am

It means it's time to put the kettle on.
User avatar
brimson25
Posts: 504
Joined: Sat Apr 08, 2017 11:42 am

(or frantically unwind your absurd position, swearing and wondering about going inplay)
mobius
Posts: 203
Joined: Wed Oct 18, 2017 10:15 am

keep the kettle next to the desk - then you can do both :D
still at 3 but govy govy govy has cancelled appointments :?:
now 4, two cabinet and two junior ministers
User avatar
jimibt
Posts: 3641
Joined: Mon Nov 30, 2015 6:42 pm
Location: Narnia

May's exit date still on 1.8 odds for between now and december... i think that's pretty generous odds tbh: https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/p ... .125589838

[edit- 11:54] - alteady lost 3 ticks since this messge. i put a silly little flutter on at 1.79 ;)
User avatar
LeTiss
Posts: 5386
Joined: Fri May 08, 2009 6:04 pm

jimibt wrote:
Thu Nov 15, 2018 11:50 am
May's exit date still on 1.8 odds for between now and december... i think that's pretty generous odds tbh: https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/p ... .125589838

[edit- 11:54] - alteady lost 3 ticks since this messge. i put a silly little flutter on at 1.79 ;)
I got matched at 4.00 yesterday!!

Greened up at 1.79 this morning, but was very tempted to let it run
Post Reply

Return to “Political betting & arguing”