EU Membership Referendum (Brexit)

[LeTiss]

Surprising twist in the brexit debate tonight - Grieve and Cooper both defeated

The market for Brexit by 29th March has seen a drift on "NO" - 1.21 this morning, now 1.37

[superfrank]

Surprising twist in the brexit debate tonight - Grieve and Cooper both defeated

The market for Brexit by 29th March has seen a drift on "NO" - 1.21 this morning, now 1.37

Yay.

The 29th is a Friday so that weekend will be a massive celebration should we leave on that date with a proper Brexit or No Deal. If it happens I'll be going to a Wetherspoons - it would be rude to go anywhere else.

[LeTiss]

Interesting market - next country to hold a referendum before 2022 - I don't like trading markets so far away, but it's noticeable how interest is starting to appear for Ireland. A number of political commentators have suggested that if the EU causes friction in Ireland over the border, it could end with Ireland also wanting to leave the EU

[Black Ice]

I got 6.6 for a YES to 29/3...it then came in to 4.2..so decided to hedge when Hunt came out & said we might need a few more weeks. Mind you...was very tempted to hang on..as last time i hedged out on an 'ante-post' was on that girl who won the French Open a couple of years ago & that cost me about £300! Still..my head ruled heart this time...will be interesting to see what happens.!!

[ShaunWhite]

Interesting market - next country to hold a referendum before 2022 - I don't like trading markets so far away, but it's noticeable how interest is starting to appear for Ireland. A number of political commentators have suggested that if the EU causes friction in Ireland over the border, it could end with Ireland also wanting to leave the EU

I heard a piece about this on R4 a few weeks ago.
NI polls suggest that if there's a hard border a majority would vote to leave the UK, but if there isn't a hard border majority would vote to stay.

[superfrank]

Whether there's a deal or not, there won't be a hard border in NI because there's no need for one. The backstop is an EU tactic to keep the UK trapped in the customs union.

Liam Halligan...
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... sue-world/

"This border already copes with different currencies and variations in VAT and other taxes and duties. Yes, there is smuggling in rural areas but authorities in the UK and Ireland have built a system of intelligence sharing and collaboration to keep contraband trade in check.

There is no reason at all that the same invisible Irish land border coping with differing taxes cannot now handle minor post-Brexit differences in trading standards. Such variations, of course, would be even more marginal if the UK and EU got beyond this confected backstop nonsense and finally negotiated a free-trade agreement."

[ShaunWhite]

The one thing we haven't been short of in the last 3 years is opinion pieces. People are so entrenched now that it'll take more than an editorial from Liam Halligan to change minds.

[ShaunWhite]

I thought this was an interesting poll....leavers don't just not trust politicians, they don't trust anyone. Even scientists and weather forecasters, which is a concern given the choices that we'll need to be make soon about climate collapse. The funny one is that they don't even trust sports commentators as much as remainers

Screenshot_2019-02-05 Leave voters are less likely to trust any experts – even weather forecasters YouGov.png

[rostov]

Leavers don't trust asinine feckin polls either.

[pgetty]

I thought this was an interesting poll....leavers don't just not trust politicians, they don't trust anyone. Even scientists and weather forecasters, which is a concern given the choices that we'll need to be make soon about climate collapse. The funny one is that they don't even trust sports commentators as much as remainers

Screenshot_2019-02-05 Leave voters are less likely to trust any experts – even weather forecasters YouGov.png

You say that like it is a bad thing!

If you have time I would recommend reading Black Box Thinking by Matthew Syed and Thinking Fast and Slow by Danny Kahneman

Both very interesting and counter intuitive and if I remember correctly one of them specifically discusses trusting sport / political commentators.

Ps I am not a climate sceptic

[Naffman]

Germany will make sure there is a deal - even saw Merkel yesterday saying she wants to fix the backstop issue (she's been pretty silent the last few months).

Their economy is already struggling, she knows that without a deal with the UK they are well and truly stuffed.

[BetScalper]

Surprising twist in the brexit debate tonight - Grieve and Cooper both defeated

The market for Brexit by 29th March has seen a drift on "NO" - 1.21 this morning, now 1.37

Yay.

The 29th is a Friday so that weekend will be a massive celebration should we leave on that date with a proper Brexit or No Deal. If it happens I'll be going to a Wetherspoons - it would be rude to go anywhere else.

+ 1

[ShaunWhite]

I thought this was an interesting poll.

You say that like it is a bad thing!

Did I? I though I'd left it free of editorialising.

[ShaunWhite]

Leavers don't trust asinine feckin polls either.

I thought it showed reasonable degree of synisism so I'm not sure why you'd object. Unless objecting has become a default condition. There's one poll they all seem to be certain about though.

I'm fine with leavers winning. I'm just not so fine that a few appear to have taken the taliban approach and are happy to self destruct for the sake of idiology. The leavers have wanted a 'voice' for years, shame now they have one they don't want anyone else to have an opinion.

[Emmson]

At last some genuine buyer's remorse from the people of Sunderland.


First with out the EU and first with the buyer's remorse.