France Presidential Election 2017

Betfair trading & Punting on politics. Be aware there is a lot of off topic discussion in this group centred on Political views.
Laugro1968
Posts: 83
Joined: Thu Oct 06, 2016 12:04 pm

Im still struggling to find trades im confident in, knowing very little about each of the candidates and their history its a little difficulty to judge how much effect a piece of news is likely to have so playing this a little cautious
That's always the case in politics. Outside events can have a major impact on the public. Hence I'm waiting for the last couple of days to take bigger positions. Odds are closing anyway.

Best,
Laurent
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LeTiss
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Joined: Fri May 08, 2009 6:04 pm

Interesting to note, Marine Le Pen was starting to significantly drift.

However, yesterday's terrorist attack on a policeman has galvanised her support.

This is why I find Politics trading fascinating - there's huge liquidity, but some major moves are simply sparked by the news, I like that!
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Euler
Posts: 24700
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It was sadly inevitable that the Le Pen market would liven up after that.

I think it's odd how a few random people can cause such shifts in a nation. Am I the only person for whom this doesn't make any sense? They must be laughing at the disruption and panic this causes for so little effort.
Laugro1968
Posts: 83
Joined: Thu Oct 06, 2016 12:04 pm

I still don't believe she will become France's next president as she will need to gather more than 50% of the votes on May 7th.
She will probably win the first round for 3 reasons:
- I've always thought polls underestimated her performance
- The terrorist attacks will surely add a couple of %
- Turnout on Sunday will play an important role as some people might be to scared to go voting (obviously not MLP voters).

So to me, MLP will probably win the first round (maybe even get 30%), but will loose H2H.

My opinion for what it's worth.
Laugro1968
Posts: 83
Joined: Thu Oct 06, 2016 12:04 pm

Final thoughts:
Backed Macron next president.
Dutched Fillon for break even.

In a way, it's a no loose situation because if either MLP or Melenchon win it, we'll be loosing a whole lot more!

Brace, brace, brace ....

Laurent
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superfrank
Posts: 2762
Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 8:28 pm

It's interesting that the establishment and status quo is being seriously threatened once again (following on from Brexit and Trump).

People are sick and tired of a system that benefits the few at the expense of the many (policies of globalisation, corporatism and mass immigration are pursued by all mainstream parties & govts. in Europe and North America and, until recently, people have had no real choice at the ballot box to oppose it).

Times are changing and hopefully you aint seen nothing yet :)
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Dublin_Flyer
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superfrank wrote:
Sat Apr 22, 2017 9:49 pm
It's interesting that the establishment and status quo is being seriously threatened once again (following on from Brexit and Trump).

People are sick and tired of a system that benefits the few at the expense of the many (policies of globalisation, corporatism and mass immigration are pursued by all mainstream parties & govts. in Europe and North America and, until recently, people have had no real choice at the ballot box to oppose it).

Times are changing and hopefully you aint seen nothing yet :)
That's called capitalism. What do you suggest otherwise?
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

superfrank wrote:
Sat Apr 22, 2017 9:49 pm
Times are changing and hopefully you aint seen nothing yet :)
Times aren't changing at all, it will be the usual story of a few minor tweaks here and there. Trump, hardcore capitalist. Brexit, capitalist principals. Tories, hardcore capitalists. It's not like these people belong to the Tooting Popular Front, I don't see much sign of your glorious revolultion.
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LeTiss
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Sun Apr 23, 2017 2:05 am
Tooting Popular Front
:lol: Showing your age there. Unfortunately, I'm also old enough to remember Citizen Smith
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Euler
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Power to the people
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superfrank
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Dublin_Flyer wrote:
Sun Apr 23, 2017 12:46 am
superfrank wrote:
Sat Apr 22, 2017 9:49 pm
People are sick and tired of a system that benefits the few at the expense of the many
That's called capitalism. What do you suggest otherwise?
No it's not. What we have is crony capitalism where many "businesses" are deemed too big to fail and where corporate interests are allowed to quietly control things (see EU lobbying, funding for US parties, TIPP etc.). The response to the financial crisis tells you everything you need to know about who the system work for.

If we had true capitalism then the market would set interest rates, they wouldn't be controlled by a central bank (that's central planning, i.e. far closer to a communist model). Wolfie would be proud!
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marksmeets302
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In 2008 I was very happy with the fed stepping in to rescue AIG. It's not all bad.
Laugro1968
Posts: 83
Joined: Thu Oct 06, 2016 12:04 pm

It looks like Macron is going to win the first round.
His contender is not certain yet.
Laying MLP at 1.24 on the "Final two" market makes sense. You never know....
Laugro1968
Posts: 83
Joined: Thu Oct 06, 2016 12:04 pm

Free money backing Macron to win the first round at 1.25!
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superfrank
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how dull!
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