Next Tory Leader & May's Exit Date (2019)

Betfair trading & Punting on politics. Be aware there is a lot of off topic discussion in this group centred on Political views.
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dragontrades
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Joined: Wed Oct 19, 2016 11:22 pm

Looks like the guardian will release an audio recording tomorrow.
Also Boris has said he will not do the Sky debate which is a shame
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superfrank
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So a neighbour records the domestic and sends it to the Guardian. Only in London.
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Dallas
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superfrank wrote:
Fri Jun 21, 2019 9:11 pm
So a neighbour records the domestic and sends it to the Guardian. Only in London.
Kerching!
dragontrades
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Wish I had hedged my lay of Gove :(
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Dallas
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Boris now out to 1.24
Think he touched a low of around 1.10/1.11 after the final round

Wish I hadn't exited my lay on him now :?
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LeTiss
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Considering there's basically only 2 left in the race, the book is constantly broke. It doesn't show this, as there's so many other runners still in the market, but when you isolate the prices of Johnson and Hunt, it's well below 100%
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Black Ice
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I layed BJ last night @ 1.22...he's under tremendous pressure..apparently missing calming influence of Marina...sofa surfing if C throws him out..bad relate between her & Linton C..she might just decide that being 'first lady to BJ/PM aint much fun!! He must be emotionally all over the place...& he wants to run the country!!!??? :o Honestly woouldnt surprise me if he impolded...again!!!
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LeTiss
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It's a market where you need to take your position and hold your nerve. It's an incredibly jumpy market, and we keep seeing 3 or 4 tick movements for no real reason. If you kept following the money, you'd quickly get bullied and beaten
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Black Ice
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Yup..I shall hold until he wins..or gets beaten. Another thing..he's thoroughly upset his 6 children over Carrie...& that's really worrying him. He's in an emotional maelstrom...& trying to run a campaigne to lead the country??? Don't think so! :o :shock:
greenmark
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Anyone assuming Johnson's 'no deal' stance is a winner should watch Liam Fox on Andrew Marr. Fox said the EU have said twice they will impose WTO tariffs in the event of 'no deal', regardless of the UK's unilateral low-tariff regime. That is catastrophic for exporters (44% of UK exports go to EU).
Liam Fox is a Brexiteer negotiating trade agreements, so he should know.
Johnson is touting no deal as his main weapon.
It's suicidal for our economy. It would take years to recover from a self-inflicted wound..
Johnson is a selfish, arrogant liar and doesn't care at all about the havoc he causes.
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firlandsfarm
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greenmark wrote:
Mon Jun 24, 2019 6:06 pm
Anyone assuming Johnson's 'no deal' stance is a winner should watch Liam Fox on Andrew Marr. Fox said the EU have said twice they will impose WTO tariffs in the event of 'no deal', regardless of the UK's unilateral low-tariff regime. That is catastrophic for exporters (44% of UK exports go to EU).
Liam Fox is a Brexiteer negotiating trade agreements, so he should know.
Johnson is touting no deal as his main weapon.
It's suicidal for our economy. It would take years to recover from a self-inflicted wound..
Johnson is a selfish, arrogant liar and doesn't care at all about the havoc he causes.
Of course there are alternative arguments for a No-deal/WTO Brexit and there is only one way to find out for certain. Until then both sides are pure conjecture and it could be said that the protagonists of Project Fear are 'selfish, arrogant liars who don't care at all about the havoc they cause' with their PF stories which have been seen post referendum to be misleading!
greenmark
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firlandsfarm wrote:
Mon Jun 24, 2019 6:28 pm
greenmark wrote:
Mon Jun 24, 2019 6:06 pm
Anyone assuming Johnson's 'no deal' stance is a winner should watch Liam Fox on Andrew Marr. Fox said the EU have said twice they will impose WTO tariffs in the event of 'no deal', regardless of the UK's unilateral low-tariff regime. That is catastrophic for exporters (44% of UK exports go to EU).
Liam Fox is a Brexiteer negotiating trade agreements, so he should know.
Johnson is touting no deal as his main weapon.
It's suicidal for our economy. It would take years to recover from a self-inflicted wound..
Johnson is a selfish, arrogant liar and doesn't care at all about the havoc he causes.
With respect. Project Fear is a post-brexit scenario - brexit has yet to happen. Business and the economy is in suspended animation at present. Once brexit is reolved, either of 3 ways, we'll see how accurate project fear is. But at this stage there is no doubt. No deal would be a catastrophe for exporters. Forget Baker's proposal, it's full of 'co-operation' by the EU. Thats not going to happen. We rely on the EU for 44% of our exports. They rely on us for 6% of their exports.
Who has more to lose?
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superfrank
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greenmark wrote:
Mon Jun 24, 2019 9:44 pm
We rely on the EU for 44% of our exports. They rely on us for 6% of their exports.
Very misleading figures.

The UK runs a massive goods trade deficit with the EU. If there were tariffs in operation then the UK would raise far more than EU tariffs would cost us.
The EU, taken as a whole is the UK’s largest trading partner. In 2017, UK exports to the EU were £274 billion (44% of all UK exports). UK imports from the EU were £341 billion (53% of all UK imports).
https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk ... y/CBP-7851

From Priti Patel/IDS in the Telegraph:
The new Government should instead rightly accelerate the planning for us to leave on October 31st and with vigor and determination. And at the same time we must make an offer to the EU that we should resurrect the Tusk offer of a comprehensive Free Trade deal.
We accept that this cannot be completed before the 31st 0ctober so we would also agree with the EU to jointly invoke GATT, Article 24 to come into force on 31st October 2019. This will enable us to continue with zero tariffs and regulatory standstill for the negotiation.
Alongside, we can also agree to set up an independent body to adjudicate over disputes concerning regulation changes during the period we are negotiating the Free Trade deal.
Sounds like a sensible approach to me.
greenmark
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"We accept that this cannot be completed before the 31st 0ctober so we would also agree with the EU to jointly invoke GATT, Article 24 to come into force on 31st October 2019. "
And the EU would agree where we haven't reached agreement in 3 years.

I'm not saying I'm right, I'm just very worried that no deal will destroy 25% of our EU exporters.
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