Scottish Independence Vote

Betfair trading & Punting on politics. Be aware there is a lot of off topic discussion in this group centred on Political views.
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superfrank
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the pound has risen today and not very volatile considering so looks like the markets think it's a done deal No.
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Euler
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Tricky one, I guess some of this is down to when votes are announced and how they are counted. You can't help but think that somebody somewhere has their finger on the pulse.
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Euler
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Looking at the price, it appears to be decaying in line with time value.
PeterLe
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Im fairly sure its going to be a no, but Ive greened up now anyway.
Good luck to anyone still trading it
Regards
Peter
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LeTiss
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Huge run on 'no' now

Perhaps it's not going to be as close as the Nationalists would like
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Euler
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Shortened a lot in the last 1/2 hour
Iron
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It's curious, given that there have been no exit polls (at least ones commissioned by the media).

Jeff
Zenyatta
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It's interesting that the price suddenly jumped almost as soon as the ballots started being opened and counting begun... YES price now out to 8.20 and drifting! Obviously people in the know cleaning up.

It really shows that the Betfair market is scarily efficient and new information gets factored in almost right away.
Iron
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Tweet from Newsnight:

President of YouGov Peter Kellner says whilst he once said there was an 80% of a 'No' victory, now believes is a 99% chance
Iron
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YouGov poll after re-contacting voters in the Scottish Independence referendum

YES 46%
NO 54%
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Euler
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I see Andy Murray lost a few fans today!
Zenyatta
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Ferru123 wrote:YouGov poll after re-contacting voters in the Scottish Independence referendum

YES 46%
NO 54%
Ah, so that's probably the info that caused the sudden price shift. YES now drifting to oblivion... 15.00+. Amazing how fast Betfair markets are. I guess it shows you can't beat the market unless you can get to new info. first.
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LeTiss
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I'm surprised to see the market is still 'in play' despite the polls being closed and counting under way

Does anyone know when BF will suspend the market?
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Naffman
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It suspends when the results are officially announced.
BF just trying to keep it going longer so they get more commission, you can't blame them for doing that though.
Zenyatta
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All over. YES price 42+.
I'm curious to know what critical info drove the market to such a decisive answer so early on.
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