Can a Simple strategy explianed in one sentence really work long term?

The sport of kings.
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elecotop
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Joined: Sat Mar 12, 2016 11:16 am

I trade pre-off order flow profitable, my strategy is so so simple, I could explain it in one sentence it's that simple

Is this really enough tho for an edge and long term profits

How simple is your strategy?
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ANGELS15
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elecotop wrote:
Thu Jan 17, 2019 1:39 am
I trade pre-off order flow profitable, my strategy is so so simple, I could explain it in one sentence it's that simple

Is this really enough tho for an edge and long term profits

How simple is your strategy?
My initial thought on very simple stratgies is that they are easily defeated because of their simplicity. An example using a betting angle you may hear someone say 'Oh I always back trap 3 at Monmore', well it may be the rank outsider or a very short odds on shot. I've found that it's better to have a few quidelines that can aid you. On the other hand I've seen people explaining complex strategies that again are difficut to execute because it's so hard to find enough examples to really know if it's profitable. The answer lies in a compromise between the two approaches.
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ShaunWhite
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The more simple the better.
If you have a fancy Dan strategy with 10 variables and it stops working, where do you start? With one or two parameters it's much easier to tweak and get back on track.
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Euler
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Location: Bet Angel HQ

Occam's razor
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ruthlessimon
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elecotop wrote:
Thu Jan 17, 2019 1:39 am
my strategy is so so simple, I could explain it in one sentence it's that simple

How simple is your strategy?
Simple is a subjective term; but I am a believer in secrets & killa 1 sentence snippets
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ShaunWhite
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Euler wrote:
Thu Jan 17, 2019 1:29 pm
Occam's razor
It was so much easier to become known as a great thinker in his time, scribble down the obvious in Latin and you were guaranteed immortality. :D

At 700 years old, that must go down as the oldest trading tip there is! Unless anyone knows otherwise....
Trader Pat
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Thu Jan 17, 2019 1:50 pm
Euler wrote:
Thu Jan 17, 2019 1:29 pm
Occam's razor
It was so much easier to become known as a great thinker in his time, scribble down the obvious in Latin and you were guaranteed immortality. :D

At 700 years old, that must go down as the oldest trading tip there is! Unless anyone knows otherwise....
"In the midst of chaos, there is also opportunity" Sun Tzu, circa 500 BC

Very apt for a Newcastle AW meeting on a Thursday night in January.
elecotop
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Joined: Sat Mar 12, 2016 11:16 am

Euler Just read up on occam's razor Thanks for this.

Thanks, everyone great comments, feeling positive about my trading career this year.
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ShaunWhite
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Trader Pat wrote:
Thu Jan 17, 2019 5:59 pm
"In the midst of chaos, there is also opportunity" Sun Tzu, circa 500 BC

Very apt for a Newcastle AW meeting on a Thursday night in January.
I always thought I wasn't competitive, I've just spent longer than I care to mention reading aincient Greek and Indian philosphy trying to beat that :roll:

Re what I said before about Occam, when you look at the list of Greek philosophers it makes you think that everyone who could write was one.
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liero1
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makes me think of this - if you make it too complex you are likely over fitting your data.. if too easy it is likely to be a high bias / under fitting Image
spreadbetting
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liero1 wrote:
Mon Jan 21, 2019 10:02 am
makes me think of this - if you make it too complex you are likely over fitting your data.. if too easy it is likely to be a high bias / under fitting Image
Trading can be as simple or as complicated as you want it to be and both approaches will work. Some people like as many conditions as possible to be ticked before they have the confidence to enter a market whereas others are happier to go with the flow. It'd be interesting to see which approach the longer term players use as I'd assume they'd be most likely in the less is more approach, that may well be down to them being able to filter out unneccessary conditions or simply greater confidence in what they do from experience and results.
BrianDee
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> if you make it too complex you are likely over fitting your data

That is so true - can't be emphasised enough.
As an 'old boy' from other types of market, I can comment from experience!
From my recent relatively short look at the last 6 years UK Horse Racing Win market data, it looks like there are some good, simple, long lasting fundamentals.

So to answer the original question - yes!
If simple is working, stick with it and don't worry about it until it stops working and you move on!
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ruthlessimon
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spreadbetting wrote:
Mon Jan 21, 2019 11:24 am
Some people like as many conditions as possible to be ticked before they have the confidence to enter a market whereas others are happier to go with the flow.
The irony is; "go with the flow" = too complicated to be explained objectively

& I'd personally define a strategy with several, (but objective) conditions, as being simple
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wearthefoxhat
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Euler wrote:
Thu Jan 17, 2019 1:29 pm
Occam's razor

Hanlon's Razor
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ruthlessimon
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spreadbetting wrote:
Mon Jan 21, 2019 11:24 am
It'd be interesting to see which approach the longer term players use as I'd assume they'd be most likely in the less is more approach, that may well be down to them being able to filter out unneccessary conditions or simply greater confidence in what they do from experience and results.
Surely you're in a position to offer some insights too? :)

Well let's break down Peter's stance

"Cutting out biggest losses"

To me this means:

"What could I have objectively used to win on the race?"

Invariably meaning, raising the variable count (i.e. no longer simple) - as the current strategy obviously has some holes - & the biggest losers offer the best chance to spot some new variables. Now there's a super high chance those parameters are going to be wayy too refined - & that's why I personally spend hours & hours, looking to strip out what I can. But it has to be somewhat complex, or we fall back into the "nothing works, price is always efficient" argument.

But this is still very difficult, no question, & imo, a massive reason for failure. If I personally fail in the coming yrs, this'll be why. Not psychology, but what I spotted in the data had false weight. Someone could've the best dataset in the world, & still not spot the patterns/objective triggers.

Having to foresight & tenacity to spot genuinely predictive variables is very tricky - & this is where 1to1 mentorship benefits. This is also why people (on the face of it) can talk the talk; but not walk the walk - although it's easy to assume they are amazing traders behind the scenes.
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