A betting paradox

[Omnishambles]

I lost money today by backing a winner...

4.45 Leicester: a close finish and Betfair keep the market open for the photo finish announcement. It was the near-side horse, Fastnet Spin, all-day-long, so I backed it at 1.53 - free money!

The Racing UK commentators disagreed and also said the angle at Leicester was deceptive, and my horse drifted to 1.85 - more free money!

Dead heat declared. I only get half my stake at the prices. They were odds-on. I've lost money. FFS!

[MemphisFlash]

no such thing as "Free money"

[Derek27]

I've never been interested in photo-finish betting (you can't even see where the near post/camera is) but if there is any value in the betting, I reckon it's more likely to be found in the outsider.

At least you've now got decent odds on the exchange. Remember the old days when bookies would offer 1-10 the favourite, Evens the outsider!

[RentonT]

Am I being thick but isn't it half your winnings on a dead heat? So you should still make some money???

[ShaunWhite]

Am I being thick but isn't it half your winnings on a dead heat? So you should still make some money???

+1 Unless I'm being thick too.

[LinusP]

Not if the odds are under two:

https://en-betfair.custhelp.com/app/ans ... ad-heat%3F

Example 2 (Back Bet - win market - Dead Heat by two runners):
You backed the favourite ‘Green Pepper’ with £50 at the price of 1.60. ‘Green Pepper’ dead heats for first place:
(Stake / 2) x (Odds - 1) - (Stake / 2) = your profit/loss
(£50 / 2) x (1.60 - 1) - (£50 / 2) = -£10 loss (although your selection wins the race, you occur an overall loss since your odds were less than 2.0)

[to75ne]

there is no paradox you backed at odds on.

back a horse at 1.85 for £10 returns with stake £18.5

if the race dead heats the returns are divided by the number of runners that dead heated. in the above 2 runners dead heated your retuns of £18.5 is divided by 2 which will return 9.25 a loss of £0.75p.

if you had layed you would have made a profit of £0.75p

[ShaunWhite]

there is no paradox you backed at odds on.

back a horse at 1.85 for £10 returns with stake £18.5

if the race dead heats the returns are divided by the number of runners that dead heated. in the above 2 runners dead heated your retuns of £18.5 is divided by 2 which will return 9.25 a loss of £0.75p.

if you had layed you would have made a profit of £0.75p

Well you learn something every day. Not being a 'to the finish' gambler I wasn't aware of this and that's my excuse.

I really thought that half of 1.85 was 1.425, so you'd get the stake back and half of the return.

Now I think about it (and that's always a good plan) I must have been wrong because a dead heat in a two horse race would cleanout the bookies if everyone got their stake back plus half of their winnings.

D'oh

[RentonT]

Well you learn something every day. Not being a 'to the finish' gambler I wasn't aware of this and that's my excuse.

+1

I never knew that either