I lost money today by backing a winner...
4.45 Leicester: a close finish and Betfair keep the market open for the photo finish announcement. It was the near-side horse, Fastnet Spin, all-day-long, so I backed it at 1.53 - free money!
The Racing UK commentators disagreed and also said the angle at Leicester was deceptive, and my horse drifted to 1.85 - more free money!
Dead heat declared. I only get half my stake at the prices. They were odds-on. I've lost money. FFS!
A betting paradox
- MemphisFlash
- Posts: 2155
- Joined: Fri May 16, 2014 10:12 pm
- Location: Leicester
no such thing as "Free money"
I've never been interested in photo-finish betting (you can't even see where the near post/camera is) but if there is any value in the betting, I reckon it's more likely to be found in the outsider.
At least you've now got decent odds on the exchange. Remember the old days when bookies would offer 1-10 the favourite, Evens the outsider!
At least you've now got decent odds on the exchange. Remember the old days when bookies would offer 1-10 the favourite, Evens the outsider!
- ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
Not if the odds are under two:
https://en-betfair.custhelp.com/app/ans ... ad-heat%3F
https://en-betfair.custhelp.com/app/ans ... ad-heat%3F
Example 2 (Back Bet - win market - Dead Heat by two runners):
You backed the favourite ‘Green Pepper’ with £50 at the price of 1.60. ‘Green Pepper’ dead heats for first place:
(Stake / 2) x (Odds - 1) - (Stake / 2) = your profit/loss
(£50 / 2) x (1.60 - 1) - (£50 / 2) = -£10 loss (although your selection wins the race, you occur an overall loss since your odds were less than 2.0)
there is no paradox you backed at odds on.
back a horse at 1.85 for £10 returns with stake £18.5
if the race dead heats the returns are divided by the number of runners that dead heated. in the above 2 runners dead heated your retuns of £18.5 is divided by 2 which will return 9.25 a loss of £0.75p.
if you had layed you would have made a profit of £0.75p
back a horse at 1.85 for £10 returns with stake £18.5
if the race dead heats the returns are divided by the number of runners that dead heated. in the above 2 runners dead heated your retuns of £18.5 is divided by 2 which will return 9.25 a loss of £0.75p.
if you had layed you would have made a profit of £0.75p
- ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
Well you learn something every day. Not being a 'to the finish' gambler I wasn't aware of this and that's my excuse.to75ne wrote: ↑Tue Sep 26, 2017 6:53 amthere is no paradox you backed at odds on.
back a horse at 1.85 for £10 returns with stake £18.5
if the race dead heats the returns are divided by the number of runners that dead heated. in the above 2 runners dead heated your retuns of £18.5 is divided by 2 which will return 9.25 a loss of £0.75p.
if you had layed you would have made a profit of £0.75p
I really thought that half of 1.85 was 1.425, so you'd get the stake back and half of the return.
Now I think about it (and that's always a good plan) I must have been wrong because a dead heat in a two horse race would cleanout the bookies if everyone got their stake back plus half of their winnings.
D'oh
+1ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Tue Sep 26, 2017 2:05 pmWell you learn something every day. Not being a 'to the finish' gambler I wasn't aware of this and that's my excuse.
I never knew that either