Bookmakers, Big Data and The Future

[iambic_pentameter]

As you may well have already read:

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2017/ ... orse-races

Despite only participating in the racing markets for just over a year, I find this quite exciting.

Given that bookmakers don't embrace long term winners, surely it is good news for us exchange traders as no doubt successful players will be restricted meaning the obvious place to trade will be on Betfair / Betdaq. And that in turn will lead to greater liquidity.

But, a question for the experienced horse racing traders here - how does the landscape feel to you now compared to 5 + years ago? And what are your hopes for the future?

I read with interest that the Hong Kong Jockey Club has been investing heavily in China and it would be very interesting if in the future, the opportunity to trade HKJC and Chinese racing would open up.

Iambic

[Korattt]

As you may well have already read:

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2017/ ... orse-races

Given that bookmakers don't embrace long term winners, surely it is good news for us exchange traders as no doubt successful players will be restricted meaning the obvious place to trade will be on Betfair / Betdaq. And that in turn will lead to greater liquidity.

Iambic

I said exactly that last week

[iambic_pentameter]

As you may well have already read:

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2017/ ... orse-races

Given that bookmakers don't embrace long term winners, surely it is good news for us exchange traders as no doubt successful players will be restricted meaning the obvious place to trade will be on Betfair / Betdaq. And that in turn will lead to greater liquidity.

Iambic

I said exactly that last week

Great minds and all that - and apologies for not seeing your comment elsewhere on the forum

[invisiblelayer]

Very interesting but even with all that data, will they speed streams up to match? even with plenty of data still doesn't beat a time advantage and a good judge race reader situated in a private box at the racecourse. I don't get involved in inplay markets myself but can see liquidity is dire compared to years ago, still be winners that play from home racing uk tracks but even them tracks have different delays. Picture delays have actually got worse not better over the years for streaming. Actually irks me somewhat when ATR call out inplay lows/highs after the race despite anyone watching being 8 seconds behind actually live

Hopes for Betfair is they concentrate on the exchange but doubt this, was inevitable when they become a traditional bookie. I'd love there to be decent enough liquidity in overnight markets bar the big festivals, its' certainly a ghost town compared to years ago. Betfair once used to offer zero commission some markets before lunch to encourage racing markets, can't remember the exact time 2005-06? but did happen some all weather races. I did ask them on forum chat questions if they could do something similar or just try to encourage but got even worse since. Games changing though know that plenty of position takers not trading get involved very late these days and not showing hands so early, you still get plenty of early gambles but hard to get on anything like the numbers before with bookies/betfair

From a punting perspective people in England have zero interest in HK racing but opening up Betfair to these places could be huge, can't see it though, they seem to be closing in more places than opening?

[Derek27]

Don't really see how anyone will have the time on analyse all that information on a mobile phone while thinking of having a bet (perhaps, in a 5 furlong sprint).

The most important question is will they be offering competitive prices. I suspect they won't be taking any chances, unlike exchange punters.

[LinusP]

If this data is made available for everyone it could be very exciting, although I doubt it is going to be free for those wanting it without a delay.

I have already started looking into positioning using GPS and it isn’t easy! Datum’s, ellipsoids and apparently the earth isn’t actually round...

[Euler]

I've lobbied the BHA for technology like this as all other sports have access to this sort of thing to make a sport more engaging. Guess we will have to wait to see how it is used.

[ajdal]

I'm pretty sure GPS data is available via saddlecloths (or some other way) already (maybe certain parties already have access to trial data)... the in-play market is fascinatingly fast in its reactions recently... I've been thinking for sometime someone/group is utilising GPS data...

Still nice edges to be found in over-reactions thankfully...

[Derek27]

What's the point in having up to the second data, sectionals, etc. if you can't even watch the race live on the TV channels ?

With today's technology you would think they could find a way of reducing the 20 second delay in live TV broadcasts.

[bennyboy351]

What's the point in having up to the second data, sectionals, etc. if you can't even watch the race live on the TV channels ?

With today's technology you would think they could find a way of reducing the 20 second delay in live TV broadcasts.

I'm sure 'they' could - if 'they' hadn't a vested interest in an artificial delay.........

[LinusP]

I'm pretty sure GPS data is available via saddlecloths (or some other way) already (maybe certain parties already have access to trial data)... the in-play market is fascinatingly fast in its reactions recently... I've been thinking for sometime someone/group is utilising GPS data...

Still nice edges to be found in over-reactions thankfully...

Yeh there are people using it, the response I got a few months ago was if you have to ask the price you can’t afford it.

[ShaunWhite]

Another way to squeeze money out of the casual punter? Poor schmucks on their phones vs the hardcore highspeed traders and the bookies themselves. One sure thing, it'll be terrible value and I'm not sure another new version of horse bingo, extracting money and disillusioning casual punters will boost the industry one iota.

Faster information and 'big data' only benefits those with the resourses, intellect and capital to expolit it and therefore it can only be bad news for the vast majority of punters who aren't in that position. They'll be lead to believe this info is giving them an egde when it's actually benefitting their adverseries more. People don't mind losing a few quid on the races for a bit of entertainment, but if they feel ripped off they'll stay away.

It's like that story about the social media/football results, once it's weaponised only a very very few people will benefit and we here know better than most that this means many more will end up funding their gains.

Any edge the pricing shrewdies have will be erroded by the new 'perfect pricing' models running in windowless buildings. Forget trying to work out odds and looking for value, someone else will have beaten you to it. We debated trading vs gambling but at this rate career gamblers and their valuable source of liquidity will be a thing of the past.

[Derek27]

What's the point in having up to the second data, sectionals, etc. if you can't even watch the race live on the TV channels ?

With today's technology you would think they could find a way of reducing the 20 second delay in live TV broadcasts.

I'm sure 'they' could - if 'they' hadn't a vested interest in an artificial delay.........

By 'they', I was referring to the TV providers. I doubt At The Races or Racing UK would have any control over the time delay, it's more likely to be the Industry wide technology being used.

Before digital TV, I think the old analogue TV was almost live.

[Bluesky]

Faster information and 'big data' only benefits those with the resourses, intellect and capital to expolit it and therefore it can only be bad news for the vast majority of punters who aren't in that position. They'll be lead to believe this info is giving them an egde when it's actually benefitting their adverseries more. People don't mind losing a few quid on the races for a bit of entertainment, but if they feel ripped off they'll stay away.

Absolutely this is almost certain to happen.

[Westerner]

Faster information and 'big data' only benefits those with the resourses, intellect and capital to expolit it and therefore it can only be bad news for the vast majority of punters who aren't in that position. They'll be lead to believe this info is giving them an egde when it's actually benefitting their adverseries more. People don't mind losing a few quid on the races for a bit of entertainment, but if they feel ripped off they'll stay away.

Absolutely this is almost certain to happen.

+1 My thoughts too