Bookmakers, Big Data and The Future

[LinusP]

I'm pretty sure GPS data is available via saddlecloths (or some other way) already (maybe certain parties already have access to trial data)... the in-play market is fascinatingly fast in its reactions recently... I've been thinking for sometime someone/group is utilising GPS data...

Still nice edges to be found in over-reactions thankfully...

Yeh there are people using it, the response I got a few months ago was if you have to ask the price you can’t afford it.

[ShaunWhite]

Another way to squeeze money out of the casual punter? Poor schmucks on their phones vs the hardcore highspeed traders and the bookies themselves. One sure thing, it'll be terrible value and I'm not sure another new version of horse bingo, extracting money and disillusioning casual punters will boost the industry one iota.

Faster information and 'big data' only benefits those with the resourses, intellect and capital to expolit it and therefore it can only be bad news for the vast majority of punters who aren't in that position. They'll be lead to believe this info is giving them an egde when it's actually benefitting their adverseries more. People don't mind losing a few quid on the races for a bit of entertainment, but if they feel ripped off they'll stay away.

It's like that story about the social media/football results, once it's weaponised only a very very few people will benefit and we here know better than most that this means many more will end up funding their gains.

Any edge the pricing shrewdies have will be erroded by the new 'perfect pricing' models running in windowless buildings. Forget trying to work out odds and looking for value, someone else will have beaten you to it. We debated trading vs gambling but at this rate career gamblers and their valuable source of liquidity will be a thing of the past.

[Derek27]

What's the point in having up to the second data, sectionals, etc. if you can't even watch the race live on the TV channels ?

With today's technology you would think they could find a way of reducing the 20 second delay in live TV broadcasts.

I'm sure 'they' could - if 'they' hadn't a vested interest in an artificial delay.........

By 'they', I was referring to the TV providers. I doubt At The Races or Racing UK would have any control over the time delay, it's more likely to be the Industry wide technology being used.

Before digital TV, I think the old analogue TV was almost live.

[Bluesky]

Faster information and 'big data' only benefits those with the resourses, intellect and capital to expolit it and therefore it can only be bad news for the vast majority of punters who aren't in that position. They'll be lead to believe this info is giving them an egde when it's actually benefitting their adverseries more. People don't mind losing a few quid on the races for a bit of entertainment, but if they feel ripped off they'll stay away.

Absolutely this is almost certain to happen.

[Westerner]

Faster information and 'big data' only benefits those with the resourses, intellect and capital to expolit it and therefore it can only be bad news for the vast majority of punters who aren't in that position. They'll be lead to believe this info is giving them an egde when it's actually benefitting their adverseries more. People don't mind losing a few quid on the races for a bit of entertainment, but if they feel ripped off they'll stay away.

Absolutely this is almost certain to happen.

+1 My thoughts too

[LinusP]

So its £150,000 for a year's subscription...

[ShaunWhite]

Faster information and 'big data' only benefits those with the resourses, intellect and capital to expolit it and therefore it can only be bad news for the vast majority of punters who aren't in that position. They'll be lead to believe this info is giving them an egde when it's actually benefitting their adverseries more. People don't mind losing a few quid on the races for a bit of entertainment, but if they feel ripped off they'll stay away.

Absolutely this is almost certain to happen.

+1 My thoughts too

I often feel like the Grinch on here, just a miserable sceptical contrarian that always manages to see the downside.

Mr & Mrs Average don't like complicated...fact. They don't even bother with betfair and this just makes racing look even more complicated and nerdy to the uninitiated who are the marketeers target.

The sucessful betting business model is well proven, either big returns for small stakes (eg the lottery or scratch cards) or give them something to care about (eg Grand National or England in the world cup). Winning £2 for a £10 stake in running because you've calculated your horse gains 3mph over fences going anticlockwise, won't set the industry alight.

[Dallas]

I often feel like the Grinch on here

Just as long as you don't try and steal Christmas - its my favourite time of year

[LeTiss]

Shaun White, speaking sense.........whatever next

[ShaunWhite]

Shaun White, speaking sense.........whatever next

It's just the law of averages mate, spout off enough and occasionally some of it makes sense. I'm a deft exponent of the infinate monkey method.

[Euler]

My reading of it is that this data is primarily to make the sport a bit more interesting in the same way that data does for Tennis and footy. Though I'm sure applications will be found for betting, trading and training purposes.

I'd be really keen to get my hands on it!

[mathsnerd]

If this data is made available for everyone it could be very exciting, although I doubt it is going to be free for those wanting it without a delay.

I have already started looking into positioning using GPS and it isn’t easy! Datum’s, ellipsoids and apparently the earth isn’t actually round...

I am quite new to the forum (been a lurker for a while) but have recently been using GPS data to try and get an edge in-play. I too have been through the trials of turning that GPS data into a 2D graphic to display position but I have found many inaccuracies in this stuff. Generally it works well but I have come across many races where "my" result from GPS is nowhere near accurate. Could be a bug in my code as that can never be ruled out but I would be really interested to hear about other people's experiences with using the data from the point of view of its accuracy.

[Euler]

Sporting lot - Sports trading workstation, used to use Turtrax data many years ago.

I found a video on it, dated 2006: -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kG7WMn3k_m4

[mathsnerd]

Sporting lot - Sports trading workstation, used to use Turtrax data many years ago.

I found a video on it, dated 2006: -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kG7WMn3k_m4

That is very interesting. I had no idea this tech was around in racing as far back as 2006. I would imagine that it would have significantly improved since then but some of the odd data I get sometimes makes you wonder. I can understand how data can be inaccurate but from what I have seen the data seems at times to exhibit systematic or calibration errors. I would assume (perhaps naively) that the errors in x and y coordinates would be independent and follow a bivariate Gaussian distribution (so a stationary runner might exhibit radially symmetric jitter about the true position) but this does not seem to be the case.
As stated though, you can never be certain that code does not contain bugs so would be very interested in the thoughts and findings of other people using this data in regard to accuracy.

[ShaunWhite]

Sporting lot - Sports trading workstation, used to use Turtrax data many years ago.

I found a video on it, dated 2006: -

That's a blast from the past, STW was the first trading software I used.