Lay the field at the off

[Mattlindsay]

I've been trying to create a rule in Guardian which lays all runners at SP by liability staking then greens each runner at the same higher price further in the race. I can't find a way to do this can someone give me guidance please.

[Derek27]

I can't advise you how to automate the rule, but I think this strategy is doomed. Laying or backing the entire field at BSP is pointless because there is no edge. Take a look at the graphic below for the Shloer Chase, which I just picked at random.

Shloer Chase.PNG

The over round is slightly in your favour at 1.9% but for an example liability of £100 your starting position would be a £37.54 loss if the favourite wins. You can see that Fox Norton never did trade higher than SP so you would have lost that amount even if you didn't trade the others. By trading the others at higher prices you would have lost even more.

Edited: original figures incorrect.

[Mattlindsay]

Thanks Derek, I accept there would be losses but on testing manually last week I was up each day Over three days, it could be a fluke hence why I'd like to make a rule in guardian and keep testing before I went live with small stakes.
If it cant be done in Guardian can it be done in Automation?
Any advice on this will help.

[ShaunWhite]

I can't advise you how to automate the rule, but I think this strategy is doomed.

Depends on your race selection.

[Derek27]

I can't advise you how to automate the rule, but I think this strategy is doomed.

Depends on your race selection.

There are very few races where every horse trades in-running at a significantly bigger price than BSP. It only takes one short or mid priced horse that you are unable to trade to make a big percentage loss.

Instead, for example, of laying a horse at 4.0 BSP for £10 and trying to get £8 on it at 5.0, you may just as well have £2 on at 5.0 IR. If it gets matched and wins you've won £8 instead of £2. If it gets matched and loses, you're £2 worse off. If it doesn't get matched and wins, which is bound to happen often, you're £30 better off.

Unless I'm missing something.

[ShaunWhite]

Fair enough but it's not about individual races, it's about 100s.
It's obviously not easy blah blah blah and certainly not my style. But it's also obvious that long tough races with top 3 favs that like to be held up will fair better than sprints with front running favs.

Every market has it's strategy and every strategy has it's market as they say.

[Dallas]

If this was ran as a blanket across all markets as Shaun said earlier it would most likely fail just as 95% of other strategies would.

I have been sorting through data today to had a quick look at this and the data shows the longer races do produce more drifts as do certain courses and race types, the difference between some are quiet large. So a bit of homework before using these type of strategies and you could be in with a shout.

[spreadbetting]

I'm a bit confused as to the step of the first laying all runners at BSP, unless you're hoping to scrape a few quid from the BSP book % it seems an uneccessary step as you'll need every runner closed. Obviously not every winner will trade above it's BSP and depending what that BSP is it could get very costly if the outsiders steam in. The start of a race is a good time to 'bot' because the market can be very inefficient then, I'm just not sure your method is taking advantage of those inefficiencies but adding in it's own inefficiencies .

Here's some stats over the last few days to show you the races where you'd have lost, last price is the maximum price it went in running , second to last price the BSP. For reference there were 14,264 records where the winner didn't exceed the BSP (out of 119,324 races) so it's not a small percentage to even match BSP. Start adding on 10% or so and that number of missed winners more than doubles to 37,510.

MENU_HINT EVENT_NAME SELECTION_NAME BSP IPMAX
Edit IRE / Punch 19th Nov 3m Hcap Hrd Lets Twist Again 9.85 6.40
Edit IRE / Cork 19th Nov 2m5f Beg Chs Youcantcallherthat 19.00 16.50
Edit IRE / Cork 19th Nov 2m4f Hcap Hrd Granny Biddy 2.84 2.80
Edit GB / Font 19th Nov 2m2f Juv Hrd Jukebox Jive 1.88 1.85
Edit GB / Uttox 18th Nov 2m4f Mdn Hrd Indian Hercules 18.50 17.00
Edit IRE / Punch 18th Nov 2m4f Chs Monalee 2.74 2.62
Edit GB / Chelt 18th Nov 2m5f Hcap Hrd Coole Cody 37.11 36.00
Edit IRE / Dund 17th Nov 1m4f Hcap Mandarin Monarch 4.80 4.50
Edit GB / Ling 18th Nov 1m2f Listed Master The World 14.35 12.00
Edit GB / Ling 18th Nov 6f Mdn Stks Temeraire 2.21 2.16
Edit GB / Chelt 17th Nov 3m1f Hcap Chs What A Moment 15.85 12.50
Edit GB / ChelmC 17th Nov 5f Hcap Entertaining Ben 12.50 10.50
Edit GB / ChelmC 17th Nov 1m5f Hcap Kaisan 15.50 14.50
Edit GB / Ling 17th Nov 6f Hcap Mistry 29.01 28.00
Edit GB / Ling 17th Nov 1m Hcap Al Galayel 5.60 5.40
Edit GB / Ling 17th Nov 7f Nursery Insurgence 9.00 6.80
Edit IRE / Clon 16th Nov 2m3f Mdn Hrd Manger Et Trotter 9.69 9.40
Edit GB / Sthl 16th Nov 7f Hcap Queens Royale 14.50 14.00
Edit GB / Sthl 16th Nov 1m4f Hcap Throckley 48.16 48.00
Edit GB / Sthl 16th Nov 7f Mdn Stks Abraj Dubai 5.40 5.10
Edit GB / Sthl 16th Nov 5f Hcap Midnight Malibu 15.00 14.50
Edit GB / ChelmC 16th Nov 1m2f Hcap Huddersfilly Town 8.88 7.80
Edit GB / ChelmC 16th Nov 1m Nov Stks Flora Sandes 8.36 7.40
Edit GB / ChelmC 16th Nov 7f Nov Stks Music Society 7.80 7.20
Edit IRE / Fairy 15th Nov 2m4f Hcap Hrd Queeny 23.14 23.00
Edit GB / Extr 15th Nov 3m Hcap Chs Sonoftheking 38.87 36.00
Edit GB / Bang 15th Nov 2m7f Mdn Hrd Shannon Bridge 8.13 7.80
Edit GB / Newc 15th Nov 7f Hcap Pitch High 16.84 13.00
Edit GB / Newc 15th Nov 5f Nursery Lord Of The Glen 2.60 2.58

[ShaunWhite]

If this was ran as a blanket across all markets as Shaun said earlier it would most likely fail just as 95% of other strategies would.

I have been sorting through data today to had a quick look at this and the data shows the longer races do produce more drifts as do certain courses and race types, the difference between some are quiet large. So a bit of homework before using these type of strategies and you could be in with a shout.

Feel free to share via a PM

If you want drifters, you need jeopardy. Data has a way of proving the patently bleedin' obvious
I think Occam said that.

[Derek27]

So a bit of homework before using these type of strategies and you could be in with a shout.

What I'm really struggling to get my head round, is why trade every horse in the field ?

If you are backing or laying the entire field for a balanced book - that's fine, I've done that successfully for years. But trading is not just about backing and laying selections with a gap in between. The lay must be at a price where there's a likelihood of a higher back bet and vice versa. By laying at BSP you've thrown away any possible edge and it's a case of reducing your losses. Doing this for every runner will only multiply the losses for reasons that spreadbetting and I have already given.

I have sometimes backed and laid every horse in the field for equal amounts resulting in free bets of varying amounts on every runner. But it is a tedious process, hard work and can take over half-an-hour - job completed before off-time. I'm sure my back and lay over-rounds would have been significantly below and above 100% respectively. I cannot imagine anyone succeeding with this strategy in-play when you start with a lay over-round of near 100% and don't even have the freedom of choosing what odds your laying at.

[Dallas]

So a bit of homework before using these type of strategies and you could be in with a shout.

What I'm really struggling to get my head round, is why trade every horse in the field ?

You'de have to ask the OP for the reason why and why do so at BSP, all I was saying is that from a brief query of the data that i had open at the time (from just 2016 i should add) there are big differences as to how far a winner is liable to drift depending on courses, distances and race types etc. So before pursuing this or any other strategy along these lines do some form of research first to give yourself at least some fighting chance.

[Derek27]

Fair enough Dallas, but I don't think it would give a fighting chance, it should result in losing less.