The going in-play problem. Yes, another thread about it.

[DLB999]

Around this time last year I jumped into horse trading and I've been a long time lurker. I use betangel and if you average it out, I make around 10% a day profit pre race trading. However, after around 9 months of trading, I thinking about quitting as I cant seem to stop going in play after a small loss and blowing my bank.

I've noticed many threads here, many people quitting over the same issue. I don't want this to be me, as I seem to have found an edge and it works very well. The same situation seems to happen over and over, well, actually 3 times since I started. I make good progress throughout the day, only to make a mistake and instead of accepting a small loss, I let it run in play. Today was a good example, I found myself up 16% only to then blow a whole bank over a 4-5% loss. If I had accepted the red I would still be in profit today but alas it didn't happen.

I've tried to automate and I just cant make it work the same as how I trade. I've tried stop losses, stupid things like elastic band flicking to feel pain when I think about going in play. Making charts to show myself what could have been if I had just accepted the loss hasn't worked, neither has telling myself this is the "last time" etc etc. I just also end up turning take sp off and taking it in-play.

Today wasn't a terrible amount of money blown, in fact I was just warming up after taking some time off due to making the same mistake over the summer when I was making around £100 a day. I has happy to find the same things I did back then still worked but I still have this problem. I actually hate myself after I do it.

Why am I making this post? If anyone has any experience and has been successful in getting over this problem, at this point I'm pretty much willing to try any method anyone will suggest. If anyone has literally ANYTHING, they can give me, ill try it. In the heat of the moment, I just literally lose my mind for 15 seconds and weeks of profit vanish. It probably doesn't help that I come from a gambling background, in fact a whole family of gamblers. It is what it is. If I cant deal with this I'm going to drop the whole thing. I guess this is the last port of call.

I would also like to thank Peter Webb for all the material he has posted on youtube if he still comes here, its been a massive help and without it i would not have been able to form my own ideas and trading style.

[ajdal]

Around this time last year I jumped into horse trading and I've been a long time lurker. I use betangel and if you average it out, I make around 10% a day profit pre race trading. However, after around 9 months of trading, I thinking about quitting as I cant seem to stop going in play after a small loss and blowing my bank.

I've noticed many threads here, many people quitting over the same issue. I don't want this to be me, as I seem to have found an edge and it works very well. The same situation seems to happen over and over, well, actually 3 times since I started. I make good progress throughout the day, only to make a mistake and instead of accepting a small loss, I let it run in play. Today was a good example, I found myself up 16% only to then blow a whole bank over a 4-5% loss. If I had accepted the red I would still be in profit today but alas it didn't happen.

I've tried to automate and I just cant make it work the same as how I trade. I've tried stop losses, stupid things like elastic band flicking to feel pain when I think about going in play. Making charts to show myself what could have been if I had just accepted the loss hasn't worked, neither has telling myself this is the "last time" etc etc. I just also end up turning take sp off and taking it in-play.

Today wasn't a terrible amount of money blown, in fact I was just warming up after taking some time off due to making the same mistake over the summer when I was making around £100 a day. I has happy to find the same things I did back then still worked but I still have this problem. I actually hate myself after I do it.

Why am I making this post? If anyone has any experience and has been successful in getting over this problem, at this point I'm pretty much willing to try any method anyone will suggest. If anyone has literally ANYTHING, they can give me, ill try it. In the heat of the moment, I just literally lose my mind for 15 seconds and weeks of profit vanish. It probably doesn't help that I come from a gambling background, in fact a whole family of gamblers. It is what it is. If I cant deal with this I'm going to drop the whole thing. I guess this is the last port of call.

I would also like to thank Peter Webb for all the material he has posted on youtube if he still comes here, its been a massive help and without it i would not have been able to form my own ideas and trading style.

Place a 'green up' trade that takes SP somewhere on the ladder close to where you were hoping the market would go. You will still probably have to make some correction in play as the balance will probably still be out, but it's a lot more comfortable doing that than watching the whole trade go further the other way once in play as you sit paralysed and in prayer.

Just do that as your golden fallback rule...

[Dublin_Flyer]

You could try automation again to force you to green up whether you like it or not, Rules to green at off time, and again 10 sec after off time, and 20 sec after off time.
Alternately if you don't want to do that, you could automate a bunch of verbal/audio reminders that you're 2 min from off time, 1 min from off time, close position asap, then at off time an audio of the other half shouting at you calling you a stupid f*cker or whatever the preferred phrase is. You'll get fed up with that fairly quickly and try avoid it!

[Derek27]

Hi DLB999,

I can sympathise with you as I get frustrated by making the same mistakes, although they're getting less frequent.

As a rule of thumb, I aim not to risk losing more than 1% of my bank in any market. If I'm in a position where the red has exceeded this limit, I consider letting it reach 2 to 2.5% if I feel there's a fair chance of things swinging back in my favour to make a worthwhile profit. But if it goes beyond 5% I'm out in a flash. I recall countless times where I sat tight hoping the market would reverse only to lose more money, I don't recall many occasions when it paid off.

Perhaps you could find a percentage or limit where you are obliged to close trade. I think everybody on this forum would agree that any trader who risks 100% of his bank in-play, is doomed, as nobody wins every time so the bank's guaranteed to be blown sometime.

Good luck,

Derek

[spreadbetting]

You could try automation again to force you to green up whether you like it or not, Rules to green at off time, and again 10 sec after off time, and 20 sec after off time.
Alternately if you don't want to do that, you could automate a bunch of verbal/audio reminders that you're 2 min from off time, 1 min from off time, close position asap, then at off time an audio of the other half shouting at you calling you a stupid f*cker or whatever the preferred phrase is. You'll get fed up with that fairly quickly and try avoid it!

I'd imagine automation would probaby just highlight the fact that most of these traders, using going in play as an excuse for their failure, aren't actually profitable in the first place and just rely on the numerous times they do go in play and it comes off as the bulk of any 'wins'. Once that in-play mentality is ingrained in your strategy it's very hard to quit as it becomes very convenient to overlook the numerous times they win against your 'bad luck' when one ends up going against you. The hussle and bussle of inplay betting makes it very easy for people to panic and either close out too early or sit stuck in the headlights but the thrill of the chase and false sense of profits will thankfully always suck in plenty of poor traders.

[ShaunWhite]

SB you're bang on the money with those comments.

Going in play usually only happens when a position has got out of control. The issue is risk control and staking. The fact you've only got in trouble a few times probably means you've escaped by the skin of your teeth many more times and you're misguided in thinking the inplay bit is the problem.

It's the effect of a problem, not the cause. Fix the risk management problem and you'll fix going in play. Guaranteed.

If you do go in play I think the best thing to do is to let it run to the line. Sounds controversial but if not you just end up grabbing tiny green savers, often on the ones that go on to win/lose anyway.... until the day you watch one lose the lot. You destroy the (almost efficiently) of SP which is the only thing that might possibly save you from the folly of going in play.

[spreadbetting]

If you do go in play I think the best thing to do is to let it run to the line. Sounds controversial but if not you just end up grabbing tiny green savers, often on the ones that go on to win/lose anyway.... until the day you watch one lose the lot. You destroy the (almost efficiently) of SP which is the only thing that might possibly save you from the folly of going in play.

Too true, I'm not sure why people assume going in play is the problem, the market can just as easily go in your favour as often as it doesn't. The only reason people create a bigger problem is the fact they refuse to close out for a loss but happily take any green on offer. Going in play is pretty much impossible to avoid if you're playing close to the off when the market action speeds up, you can't avoid it so you need to be prepared for it rather than use it as a scapegoat. Considering the markets efficiency at the off, letting your positions run to conclusion is wise advice if you're only to make things worse by overreacting.

[DLB999]

Thank you for all responses so far.

I'm considering all options suggested. I'll probably be going in the direction of some form of automated close without a green up before the off, I don't want to hedge as sometimes I use profit from trading in play as the price drops etc which can add a nice bonus every now and again. Its clear the problem isn’t just going in play, I hear time and time again the difference between a good trader and a bad one, is what happens during a losing trade. It’s something I need to deal with but have struggled. I still have the bet fair trading dream and just want to deal with this any way I can I quickly.

I hope you all have a very nice new years eve, and wish all of your 2018 to be green!

[Crazyskier]

Thank you for all responses so far.

I'm considering all options suggested. I'll probably be going in the direction of some form of automated close without a green up before the off, I don't want to hedge as sometimes I use profit from trading in play as the price drops etc which can add a nice bonus every now and again. Its clear the problem isn’t just going in play, I hear time and time again the difference between a good trader and a bad one, is what happens during a losing trade. It’s something I need to deal with but have struggled. I still have the bet fair trading dream and just want to deal with this any way I can I quickly.

I hope you all have a very nice new years eve, and wish all of your 2018 to be green!

You too and for what it's worth, you most certainly not alone! I learned the hard way and though my automation is less profitable in the short term than an average one-day trading, it's the ONLY way I can avoid the impulsive, click-happy, inevitable bank-busters that I get when manually trading IP.

The biggest single issue is accepting any small green and being grateful that a potential red was avoided, versus allowing a small loss to become CATASTROPHIC. I literally cried when I recently saw a four figure loss on a high (@15s) priced lay-to-back I had made to try and recover a relatively small trading loss, and it romped home. I could only watch frozen in horror as it remained unmatched and got smaller and the price got smaller and smaller with the red figure growing into the hundreds and beyond. I swore to myself that day never ever to do this again, yet still find myself doing the same as so very often lay to back IP with horses at SPs of 15s DO pay off and even though they often win, they usually reach 25+ IP... The issue is that on the odd occasion they run a smooth race and go on to win without the price ever exceeding the SP which is what happened to me.

Whatever method you use to avoid going IP in future, I hope it works. I really had to just lose the 'rush' of manual quick-fire IP clicking and let the 'bot do it's thing with much more scientifically-derived strategies than recklessly chasing numbers. I do this for fun, not a living, so the need for absolute iron control isn't as essential as for a full time trader reliant on the long term success for his income, though the principle is the same as are the emotions when going 'on tilt', that's for sure.

CS

[spreadbetting]

I swore to myself that day never ever to do this again, yet still find myself doing the same as so very often lay to back IP with horses at SPs of 15s DO pay off and even though they often win, they usually reach 25+ IP... The issue is that on the odd occasion they run a smooth race and go on to win without the price ever exceeding the SP which is what happened to me.

One of the things you might wish to consider when laying your 15/1 shots is that even though the market may have slight inefficiences at that price point the simple fact is those stats will be from laying every single 15/1 shot. It's very likely you'll miss a few races here and there, if we look at the probabilities of the races you'll miss, are you likely to miss one of those 15 losers or the 1 winner?

[utubecomment21]

I do understand your dilemma and i used to do the same, use inplay to get me out of trouble. It kinda worked ... until it didn't!!!!!!

For me, this looks like a simple matter of discipline. Trading is not rocket science, if one particular method doesn't work for you, stop doing it. For me, I never was any good at pre-race trading. I'd win a few pennies then pick up a £10 fine! It doesn't matter how Peter or anyone else does it, for whatever reason I just couldn't get the hang of it.

I've been far more successful with inplay trading where i can sort of 'semi-automate' the process with various methods; off-tick, inplay trader (my fav), or simply hitting the back or lay and letting it run. Of course these methods are backed up by a lot of analysis when relevant, or by the simple fundamentals including 'watching the race live'.

I tailor my trading method to me, not to what others are doing, and i have to be super disciplined. OK occasionally i go outside my rules, but then i get bitten, which then serves to remind me why I've established the rules in the first place.

[Crazyskier]

I swore to myself that day never ever to do this again, yet still find myself doing the same as so very often lay to back IP with horses at SPs of 15s DO pay off and even though they often win, they usually reach 25+ IP... The issue is that on the odd occasion they run a smooth race and go on to win without the price ever exceeding the SP which is what happened to me.

One of the things you might wish to consider when laying your 15/1 shots is that even though the market may have slight inefficiences at that price point the simple fact is those stats will be from laying every single 15/1 shot. It's very likely you'll miss a few races here and there, if we look at the probabilities of the races you'll miss, are you likely to miss one of those 15 losers or the 1 winner?

Probabilities mean that the likelihood of missing one will be a loser - as most are at 15s. Not sure I get the point Spreadbetting, but am sincerely interested in hearing more from you on this?

CS

[spreadbetting]

I'm just saying when you use simple stats to enter or exit positions you really need to be using that strategy every race it occurs if you expect to benefit from any real or perceived 'edge'. The more people dip in and out because things go wrong the more likely they are to erode any slight edge they originally may have had. Forums are littered with threads of people astonished of their bad luck at paying a 100/1 shot with a cheeky lay. The higher the odds the more chances you have at getting away with it short term and the more ingrained these habits become. When the inevitable happens it's usually far too ingrained into your trading 'get out of jail' strategy even though you know at the back of your mind it doesn't really work.

[Derek27]

If you have a large liability on an outsider, don't just think of the likelihood of it winning but how much you stand to lose - and trade out for a loss!

I remember numerous occasions as a child saying "please get me out of this god, and I'll be a good boy from now on". The reality, as you might guess, is that I never did become a good boy and carried on the old same mischief.

Embarrassing to admit it, but I've done the same thing as a trader in the past. Rather than blow a day's profit I let a big liability run thinking I'll be more careful in future - and bang went two weeks profit!

[Crazyskier]

Forums are littered with threads of people astonished of their bad luck at paying a 100/1 shot with a cheeky lay. The higher the odds the more chances you have at getting away with it short term and the more ingrained these habits become. When the inevitable happens it's usually far too ingrained into your trading 'get out of jail' strategy even though you know at the back of your mind it doesn't really work.

If you have a large liability on an outsider, don't just think of the likelihood of it winning but how much you stand to lose - and trade out for a loss!
Rather than blow a day's profit I let a big liability run thinking I'll be more careful in future - and bang went two weeks profit!

I guess that's the thing we all must learn to accept if we're to be successful at this 'game' long term. Loss management is surely as important if not more so, than winning exit points / green ups. Thanks for the replies guys.

CS