Dutching Horses Idea

The sport of kings.
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to75ne
Posts: 2413
Joined: Wed Apr 22, 2009 5:37 pm

Derek27 wrote:
Sat Mar 10, 2018 4:43 pm
to75ne wrote:
Sat Mar 10, 2018 4:14 pm
to add to Dereks question what is a "PRO staking plan"
The old Dawson system was a so-called professional (Martingale) staking plan designed to earn a living from betting.
for crying loud :lol:
markkirwan
Posts: 41
Joined: Wed Sep 07, 2011 9:59 pm

to75ne wrote:
Sat Mar 10, 2018 4:14 pm
to add to Dereks question what is a "PRO staking plan"
The aim of the plan is to achieve a target profit (T) per race. This could be for instance 5 points per race. Once you have set the value allotted to each point it cannot be changed during the betting sequence. The system works on the premise that a winner is always around the corner, no matter how long your losing run is. Each cash value (return) for each point will be low - the reason for this is that the amount multiplies each time a losing bet is encountered.

For example if we had ten losers in a row, and each point was worth £1, then the stake for the eleventh bet would be to recover £55. If you had given each point a value of 0.25 pence, then you would be looking to recover £10.25. It is very important to consider the risks before deciding upon your final settings, as losses can be significant.

Details are at https://www.thestakingmachine.com/pro.php
markkirwan
Posts: 41
Joined: Wed Sep 07, 2011 9:59 pm

Derek27 wrote:
Sat Mar 10, 2018 3:05 pm
markkirwan wrote:
Sat Mar 10, 2018 11:53 am
I dutch horses everyday that in races that have Favourites win % at 40% or more (found in Racing Post). I dutch the number of horses to odds of 1.5 and win about 77% of the time, so I use a PRO staking plan and stop when I've made 5% profit of my bank and restart every day. I usually have about 2 debit days a months but the staking still makes a profit every month (though I did have 1 debit month last June at -22.54%) but on average I made about 120% per month.
What exactly is the point of stopping for the day at 5% ?

By restricting your betting, losers are better of, winners are worse off!
I monitored them for the whole of 2016 and noticed that when debit days happened it was usually later on in the day after a profit was made you would only need few losers in a row at the end of the day to show a loss.

My stake aim is 5% of my bank per race (with the divisor set to 1.30) so my aim for the day is 5% as that is the figure it hits, if it ran to 10% then the winning days runs would be shorter.
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Derek27
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Location: UK

markkirwan wrote:
Sat Mar 10, 2018 6:34 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Sat Mar 10, 2018 3:05 pm
markkirwan wrote:
Sat Mar 10, 2018 11:53 am
I dutch horses everyday that in races that have Favourites win % at 40% or more (found in Racing Post). I dutch the number of horses to odds of 1.5 and win about 77% of the time, so I use a PRO staking plan and stop when I've made 5% profit of my bank and restart every day. I usually have about 2 debit days a months but the staking still makes a profit every month (though I did have 1 debit month last June at -22.54%) but on average I made about 120% per month.
What exactly is the point of stopping for the day at 5% ?

By restricting your betting, losers are better of, winners are worse off!
I monitored them for the whole of 2016 and noticed that when debit days happened it was usually later on in the day after a profit was made you would only need few losers in a row at the end of the day to show a loss.

My stake aim is 5% of my bank per race (with the divisor set to 1.30) so my aim for the day is 5% as that is the figure it hits, if it ran to 10% then the winning days runs would be shorter.
Have you tried analysing your 2016 results as though the day (for example) started at 3pm and ended at 2-59pm the next day?

You say you win 77% of the time, is there a marked differential between the first half of the day and the second half?

Do you really have losers at the end of the day but not at the beginning?

Something doesn't add up here, but there is absolutely no logic in trading a race because you lost in the previous race, but not trading it when you've won.

If you make a 5% profit per race you would be doubling your bank every 15 races odd!
Atho55
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Location: Home of Triumph Motorcycles

I have the same trouble with my automation rules going t*ts up usually around 16:30 ish. Best time is usually between 14:00 and 15:00. Weird I know but for me at least, it`s a fact, they do.

Keep records and just stop trading if the bad zone can be identified.
markkirwan
Posts: 41
Joined: Wed Sep 07, 2011 9:59 pm

These were my bets on 5th March
Time Place No of Horses Odds W/L
14:00 Kempton 1-4 1.18 Won
14:30 Kempton 1 1.24 Lost
15:00 Kempton 1-5 1.22 Won
15:30 Kempton 1-3 1.15 Won
15:55 Southwell 1 1.91 Won I stopped here having made 16.43%
16:00 Kempton 1-3 1.27 Won
16:25 Southwell 1-3 1.41 Won
16:30 Kempton 1-3 1.19 Lost
17:00 Kempton 1-4 1.32 Lost
17:30 Southwell 1-4 1.34 Lost
18:15 Wolverhampton 1-3 1.11 Won
20:15 Wolverhampton 1-2 1.11 Won

If I carried on and done the whole day I would lose -45.17% because of the 3 losers in a row there would not have been enough races left to recover the loss.
Atho55
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Joined: Tue Oct 06, 2015 1:37 pm
Location: Home of Triumph Motorcycles

Seems the 16:30 anomoly is not just me then...
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ShaunWhite
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Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Atho55 wrote:
Sat Mar 10, 2018 9:34 pm
I have the same trouble with my automation rules going t*ts up usually around 16:30 ish. Best time is usually between 14:00 and 15:00. Weird I know but for me at least, it`s a fact, they do.

Keep records and just stop trading if the bad zone can be identified.
The type and quantity of races within a day's racing follows a fairly predictable pattern. If you find your explanation 'wierd' perhaps it's not the right explanation?

End of the day is usually the odds and sods like amateur or NHF races. Plus people have often either made their money or lost it by then, or beating the rush hour traffic, and you're left with just the mad bad & sad involved in the market.
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Derek27
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Location: UK

markkirwan wrote:
Sat Mar 10, 2018 6:27 pm
to75ne wrote:
Sat Mar 10, 2018 4:14 pm
to add to Dereks question what is a "PRO staking plan"
The aim of the plan is to achieve a target profit (T) per race. This could be for instance 5 points per race. Once you have set the value allotted to each point it cannot be changed during the betting sequence. The system works on the premise that a winner is always around the corner, no matter how long your losing run is. Each cash value (return) for each point will be low - the reason for this is that the amount multiplies each time a losing bet is encountered.

For example if we had ten losers in a row, and each point was worth £1, then the stake for the eleventh bet would be to recover £55. If you had given each point a value of 0.25 pence, then you would be looking to recover £10.25. It is very important to consider the risks before deciding upon your final settings, as losses can be significant.

Details are at https://www.thestakingmachine.com/pro.php
Sorry Mark, I missed this post when I replied.

It's a completely bonkers system, similar to the Dawson system which many people will have lost a lot of money on and my advice is to give up!

It's not much use looking at a days results - you said you have the data for the whole of 2016. If the system was profitable I'm rather surprised you don't have the data for 2017.

It's contradictory to say the system works on the premise that a winner is always around the corner, but then say "for example if we had ten losers in a row.....It is very important to consider the risks before deciding upon your final settings, as losses can be significant" . A winner after ten losers was not just round the corner after the first loser!!!

It's basically a Martingale. You cannot possibly make money simply by mathematically manipulating stakes if you don't have an edge at the prices you're backing at.

You will notice from the link you posted that they show you what your stake would be after 3 losers. They don't show you what it would be after 10. Why do you think that is, or have you tried working it out when your dutching at combined odds of 1.5?

Have you got anywhere near your 5% a day target - that's about 330% profit in a month?
markkirwan
Posts: 41
Joined: Wed Sep 07, 2011 9:59 pm

Derek27 wrote:
Sat Mar 10, 2018 11:54 pm
markkirwan wrote:
Sat Mar 10, 2018 6:27 pm
to75ne wrote:
Sat Mar 10, 2018 4:14 pm
to add to Dereks question what is a "PRO staking plan"
The aim of the plan is to achieve a target profit (T) per race. This could be for instance 5 points per race. Once you have set the value allotted to each point it cannot be changed during the betting sequence. The system works on the premise that a winner is always around the corner, no matter how long your losing run is. Each cash value (return) for each point will be low - the reason for this is that the amount multiplies each time a losing bet is encountered.

For example if we had ten losers in a row, and each point was worth £1, then the stake for the eleventh bet would be to recover £55. If you had given each point a value of 0.25 pence, then you would be looking to recover £10.25. It is very important to consider the risks before deciding upon your final settings, as losses can be significant.

Details are at https://www.thestakingmachine.com/pro.php
Sorry Mark, I missed this post when I replied.

It's a completely bonkers system, similar to the Dawson system which many people will have lost a lot of money on and my advice is to give up!

It's not much use looking at a days results - you said you have the data for the whole of 2016. If the system was profitable I'm rather surprised you don't have the data for 2017.

It's contradictory to say the system works on the premise that a winner is always around the corner, but then say "for example if we had ten losers in a row.....It is very important to consider the risks before deciding upon your final settings, as losses can be significant" . A winner after ten losers was not just round the corner after the first loser!!!

It's basically a Martingale. You cannot possibly make money simply by mathematically manipulating stakes if you don't have an edge at the prices you're backing at.

You will notice from the link you posted that they show you what your stake would be after 3 losers. They don't show you what it would be after 10. Why do you think that is, or have you tried working it out when your dutching at combined odds of 1.5?

Have you got anywhere near your 5% a day target - that's about 330% profit in a month?
I monitored it only in 2016 and went live in 2017 (which I do have the results for) I started with £100 on January 1st then when the bank doubled I split the profits into 2 and put half into a reserve bank and the other half into the original bank to make a new bank.

Come the end of August I then withdrew enough money for a 2 week holiday in Turkey for my wife, my son & myself.

In December I also withdrew £3,000 and gave it to my wife to pay for everything for Christmas (she does everything I just turn up). Even our Christmas meal in a restaurant for the family of 12 was a lot of money.

My bank doubles on average every 20 days because not all 5% targets are met (there are debit days and days when only a 2 or 3 % profit is made)

The longest losing run on all bets for the last 26 months has been 4.

2017 results for all bets
2017 Winning Run Losing Run Strike Rate
Jan 35 2 83.20%
Feb 18 3 82.70%
Mar 23 3 81.10%
Apr 19 4 78.30%
May 23 4 78.50%
Jun 14 3 75.40%
Jul 20 3 80.30%
Aug 31 4 82.30%
Sep 15 4 77.60%
Oct 20 3 80.30%
Nov 41 3 81.40%
Dec 19 2 84.00%

The system made a profit at level stakes I just make more of a profit using a staking plan. I'm a firm believer in the following quotes:

"Selecting winners is one thing-backing them correctly is another. Money management, that's what it's all about."
"One reason why professionals last longer at the race track than the 1 amateurs' is that they plan their staking"
"If you are going to make money long term in betting you need to have some sort of money management in place. Professional Bettors treat their betting as a business. By simply recording your bets in detail is a great start to making money long term. If you want to go the next level you need to use the correct type of staking ."
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Derek27
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Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

I have to take my hat off to you if you're making those sort of profits.

When you say you started with £100 and double your bank on average every 20 days, did you reach a point where it couldn't grow any further because the bets are so large?
markkirwan
Posts: 41
Joined: Wed Sep 07, 2011 9:59 pm

Derek27 wrote:
Sun Mar 11, 2018 2:38 pm
I have to take my hat off to you if you're making those sort of profits.

When you say you started with £100 and double your bank on average every 20 days, did you reach a point where it couldn't grow any further because the bets are so large?
No because when the bank doubles it divide the profit into 2 and put half in a reserve bank and the other half gets added to the bank to give a new bank. When I get to the aim of £200 per day I usually stop on this and just keep adding it to the account so when I take the money out to pay for the holiday I still have about £5,000 in which is enough left in to keep the aim at £200 per day (though in reality its about £1,000 per week). As I don't work and I am classed as self employed it makes a big contribution to my life :D
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