Laying a Horse at random

The sport of kings.
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ShaunWhite
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CaptainMak wrote:
Mon Mar 19, 2018 4:11 pm
i always assumed it would be easy to lay say 1 horse every race. But that fact is it just isn't.
Oh yeah, it's really easy, everyone on my town does it and they all drive around in Rollers. :roll:

You're wrong about losing a lot over time, Derek is right, you're losses would amount to the commission you were paying on your gains. You need to search the forum for 'efficient market'.
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Derek27
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CaptainMak wrote:
Mon Mar 19, 2018 4:03 pm
However i dont agree that it would gain a small percentage loss over time as i believe the losses would be huge over time.
The size of the loss is different to the percentage loss. The percentage loss should remain consistent the the quantity of loss will grow over time.

You really need to improve your understanding of betting/trading to get anywhere on the exchange. It is easy to pick a few horses that's unlikely to win, but there is a catch - the price of horses that aren't likely to win are higher and will wipe out any profit if you lay them!!!
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wearthefoxhat
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CaptainMak wrote:
Mon Mar 19, 2018 2:44 pm
Hi everyone,

I like to lay one horse in a race at random, for example.. I will lay any horse from the favourite out to odds as high as 12, I have no particular reason, I just pick one that I think will lose.

My question is, since doing this for more than a year now I have noticed maybe over .. 60% of the time that horse will go on to win the race, any ideas why?

And the obvious answers will be to back that horse or don't do this system, however surely they should lose more often?

Be great to here your thoughts. ;)
Maybe... trade one at random.

Choose any old selection and then read up on its' quirks. ie: Front runner, Held up type..is it a market mover on the day? If a steamer/drifter? Check the chart momentum trend.Check the previous Hi/lo betfair figure in-play...

At least that way you're thinking about the type of trade required and can learn from a red or green trade after the race.
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ANGELS15
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Hi CaptainMak. You mention that you pick horses at random that you think might lose. I beleive that if you wanted to become a good/professional layer you will need a really good sound approach/methodology. Do you have a really good knowlege of racing and how horses are assesed/handicapped?

However even with that I've found that the Exchange markets are really accurate re the chances of the favourites. I remember when I first got a Betfair account in 2002 I was really excited as I now had the chance to take on all the dodgy favourites that I often saw. The first week or so it seemed to go quite well. I believed I had good reasoning to lay things. Fortunately I experimented with small stakes. However things very quickly went against me. Over a couple of weeks I laid 40 horses and 28 of them won! I recall a 30 runner handicap at Ascot. Around a dozen of the runners had won at least their last 4 races. Frankie Dettori was on the 5/1 favourite which I laid albeit for a small stake, I couldn't beleive it when it routed the field.

There are things you can research through the form. These days I rarely lay something outright preferring to trade or offset in running. However it's really about the value if you're laying or backing. Ask yourself if the favourite for a 2m novice hurdle at Newbury was an ex flat horse whose best form had been around 6f would it really deserve to be 11/8 when you've got a couple of bumper winners and an ex winning pointer that had recently been bought for 50,000 guineas in the field?
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wearthefoxhat
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ANGELS15 wrote:
Tue Mar 20, 2018 6:41 pm
Hi CaptainMak. You mention that you pick horses at random that you think might lose. I beleive that if you wanted to become a good/professional layer you will need a really good sound approach/methodology. Do you have a really good knowlege of racing and how horses are assesed/handicapped?

However even with that I've found that the Exchange markets are really accurate re the chances of the favourites. I remember when I first got a Betfair account in 2002 I was really excited as I now had the chance to take on all the dodgy favourites that I often saw. The first week or so it seemed to go quite well. I believed I had good reasoning to lay things. Fortunately I experimented with small stakes. However things very quickly went against me. Over a couple of weeks I laid 40 horses and 28 of them won! I recall a 30 runner handicap at Ascot. Around a dozen of the runners had won at least their last 4 races. Frankie Dettori was on the 5/1 favourite which I laid albeit for a small stake, I couldn't beleive it when it routed the field.

There are things you can research through the form. These days I rarely lay something outright preferring to trade or offset in running. However it's really about the value if you're laying or backing. Ask yourself if the favourite for a 2m novice hurdle at Newbury was an ex flat horse whose best form had been around 6f would it really deserve to be 11/8 when you've got a couple of bumper winners and an ex winning pointer that had recently been bought for 50,000 guineas in the field?
Regards Laying as an overall subject, I would initially always look at trainerform. A good indicator is the RTF% of a trainer. If less than 40% and deteriorating compared the previous days RTF%, then I would focus on that trainers runners, maybe less than 10/1 or so. This isn't random, but can be randomly chosen from the list created.

RTF % - indicates the percentage of a trainer’s horses who run to form in past 16 days

Todays Race @ Haydock 3.15:
Hayd315.PNG
Bako De La Saulaie 33% (Rose Dobbin)
Just Georgie 33% (Sue Smith)
Hills of Dubai 36% (Donald McCain)

Choose any one of the 3. (In this example they all lost)

From my records: Donald McCain was previously 37% whereas Rose Dobbin was 25%, Sue Smith was 35% so would choose D.Mc, then Sue Smith over Rose Dobbin to lay their horses.

It makes a good starting point and you can filter other stuff into the mix with regards Jockey or Class of race....etc..
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ANGELS15
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Good suggestion
elofan0
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i agree with what your saying sometimes by trying to avoid the winner you end up laying the winner because maybe the way the betting odds are set up you are diverted to making the selection that sticks out like a sore thumb .. ie lay price is too high so you dont lay that one because the risk is too high and you start to look for a horse to lay that wont be high risk and vala you have fallen into the bookies trap !!!! kinda like one way signs
iambic_pentameter
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OP

If you are going to lay horses, I'd suggest you do a lot of homework on any horse you want to lay - Timeform is excellent for IR prices and you can cross reference each run with the Racing Post notes and watch some replays.

As anyone who frequents these forums knows, plenty of horses who go off at less than 2.0 and/or hit low prices in running go on to lose.

That being said, there are also a lot of horses that can go off at a short price and then trade very high in running and then come back to win - do bear this in mind.

But please, for the sake of your health and wealth, do not lay horses at high prices - it's the fast route to the poor house :mrgreen:

Best of luck

Iambic
iambic_pentameter
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To add to my original post:

Kupatana in the 2.50pm at Chepstow is 1.54/1.55 at time of writing.

Whilst it won the previous race, it had a BSP of 1.74 but traded at 8.4 before going on to win.

This, could then, be a good Lay to Back opportunity.

Considerations:

The market will know this information so we cannot assume if will trade that high in running
There are traders with faster pictures who will be trading from the track
The horse is trained by Nicky Henderson who, as we all know, is destined for great things - did well at Cheltenham and I will be keeping an eye out on his progress :lol:

Am I suggesting that this horse will definitely lose? No, I am certainly not but it might be worth considering as this is the 3rd trip out so although it won last time, it cannot be guaranteed that it will win this time.

Have a look at the market before hand and see where the price goes and if you do play, have a very strict exit point if the price goes against you.

Iambic
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wearthefoxhat
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How about this one.

Lud300.PNG
Kerry Lee has an RTF% of 23% (down from 25% yesterday)

The horses form and RPR was far superior but was worth taking on with a BSP @1.05! (The eventual winner had finished a hopeless 3rd to Buveur D'Air 3 runs ago)

No such thing as a certainty!
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cmuddle
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I played around with data. Took the whole year 2016, all horses with BSP between odds 10 and 25 won 1 - 3.5 % of the time.

Some meetings are very low, like 1.2 % .

If one can do the right analysis to know exactly which tracks, which runs, which horses to lay, then one can maybe do it well.

Nothing will work at random.

But one question I have to this tread.
If I lay horses at odds of 10 with £100 for a £10 profit and in this type of race it has 1.2 % of winning at these odds, will that be in profit over long term?
Just don't know how to calculate it right.

Many Thanks
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Derek27
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You would make a massive profit, but a horse trading at 10 will have a much better than 1.2% chance - in theory it should be 10%.

(Laying a horse at 10 for a liability of £100 makes a £11.11 profit).
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ShaunWhite
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cmuddle wrote:
Sun Apr 08, 2018 8:47 pm
If one can do the right analysis to know exactly which tracks, which runs, which horses to lay, then one can maybe do it well.
Be mindful of not just pattern fitting. Ask yourself, if it was X last year why should it be X next year. Then take your 2016 assertions and see if they were true in 2015, 2014, 2013 etc. Then expect it to disappear next year because everyone is looking at the same data and finding what you did.
foxwood
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Mon Apr 09, 2018 12:20 am
Then expect it to disappear next year because everyone is looking at the same data and finding what you did.
:lol: So true !

Markets are constantly changing and wiping out "edges" in timescales far, far shorter that a year.

However when one door closes another one "apparently" opens. I say "apparently" because by the time you try to exploit the new "edge" it also will have vanished. The people who got there first were responsible for the new "edge" you spotted !

If you think about it, it does explain how/why contrarian first movers win over the long term.
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wearthefoxhat
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foxwood wrote:
Mon Apr 09, 2018 9:47 am
ShaunWhite wrote:
Mon Apr 09, 2018 12:20 am
Then expect it to disappear next year because everyone is looking at the same data and finding what you did.
:lol: So true !

Markets are constantly changing and wiping out "edges" in timescales far, far shorter that a year.

However when one door closes another one "apparently" opens. I say "apparently" because by the time you try to exploit the new "edge" it also will have vanished. The people who got there first were responsible for the new "edge" you spotted !

If you think about it, it does explain how/why contrarian first movers win over the long term.

I'm not wholly convinced that once you find an edge, even a short term one, that all and sundry spot it too and jump on it. Most traders/gamblers/bettors aren't that adaptable and need more convincing before moving away from their existing way of doing things.

Even if you posted up all the rules or made a you-tube video visually demonstrating the edge (not sure why anyone would), it might only help those that haven't found a niche yet. Even then, the majority would lose interest and do something else.
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