Horses : Laying The field At 1.34

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mhorro
Posts: 112
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2013 1:16 pm
Location: Cheshire

Hi,

Wondered if anyone has tried this with success?

Is it a bad or good strategy?

Thanks,

Mark
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Derek27
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As a rule of thumb, any strategy is a bad strategy if there's no reasoning behind it.

Is there any reasoning behind picking 1.34 or did you pick the price at random?
mhorro
Posts: 112
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2013 1:16 pm
Location: Cheshire

Hi,

Thanks for getting back to me promptly.

I checked inplay prices and checked how many horses hit 1.34 in-running today has been pretty bad.

Thanks,

Mark
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Dallas
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mhorro wrote:
Mon Mar 19, 2018 4:44 pm
Hi,

Thanks for getting back to me promptly.

I checked inplay prices and checked how many horses hit 1.34 in-running today has been pretty bad.

Thanks,

Mark
What about saturday or friday same then?
spreadbetting
Posts: 3140
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

Here's some stats to help you from the stats Betfair make available. Out of 123,217 races there were a total of 1,194,965 runners, 157,525 of those hit 1.34 or under.
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Derek27
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As we keep saying on this forum you need more than one day's data to draw any conclusions. I doubt there's much if any profit in that system but if you have an idea you can always test it to £2 stakes. At 1.34 the most you can lose is 68p per market and that will give you an idea of whether it's likely to succeed.

Most strategies like that usually need to be refined and applied to the most profitable courses or race types.
mhorro
Posts: 112
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2013 1:16 pm
Location: Cheshire

Good comment.
mhorro
Posts: 112
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2013 1:16 pm
Location: Cheshire

Tried this for a week but eliminating certain races some good days and bad days. Started with £2 then cranked it up to £10 and then £50. Will try and see what happens this week.

Thanks,

Mark
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ShaunWhite
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Save your money mhorro and look at the stats. There's no need to re-invent the wheel for such a basic 'strategy'.
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Derek27
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spreadbetting wrote:
Mon Mar 19, 2018 4:51 pm
Here's some stats to help you from the stats Betfair make available. Out of 123,217 races there were a total of 1,194,965 runners, 157,525 of those hit 1.34 or under.
That would suggest at £2 stakes the 123,217 winners would lose £83,787.56.

The 34,308 matched that didn't win would have won back £68,616, netting a loss of £15,171.56.

That may not be accurate because is assumes all bets were matched but it doesn't look promising.
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Derek27
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mhorro wrote:
Mon Mar 19, 2018 4:58 pm
Tried this for a week but eliminating certain races some good days and bad days. Started with £2 then cranked it up to £10 and then £50. Will try and see what happens this week.

Thanks,

Mark
What's the point in cranking up your stakes?

Did you actually win anything?

Increasing stakes by 2500% is not a good idea until you've found a successful strategy.
mhorro
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Location: Cheshire

So basically it does not work!
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Derek27
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mhorro wrote:
Mon Mar 19, 2018 5:12 pm
So basically it does not work!
That's right - you can see that from the stats. But if you do have any ideas you want to test use £2 stakes. There's really no need to use £50 and you can often work out if something has a chance of success by looking at the stats.
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ShaunWhite
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mhorro wrote:
Mon Mar 19, 2018 5:12 pm
So basically it does not work!
On every race, no, on some races, yes.

Make life easy for yourself.
Get the data (link available onthis forum). Then you can find out what courses, field sizes, times of year, market shapes etc atc work best and go from there.
spreadbetting
Posts: 3140
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

Here's some stats on the courses to give you a starter, plenty of links to the data on the forum so should be easy enough for you to query by course, distance, runners per race etc

Code: Select all

Course,Races ,Runners,1.34 and under
Aint,576,6735,773
Ascot,1603,18029,2051
Ayr,1914,17177,2412
Ballin,640,7385,817
Bang,949,7731,1184
Bath,1421,12126,1813
Belle,362,4089,479
Bellew,16,204,22
Bev,1376,12959,1819
Brig,1438,11511,1847
Carl,1467,12987,1887
Cart,497,4227,651
Catt,1761,16555,2248
ChelmC,1338,11223,1597
Chelt,1084,13401,1397
Chep,1882,17929,2480
Chest,972,8474,1248
Clon,810,10004,1050
Cork,1236,15433,1573
Curr,1375,16209,1755
Donc,2305,23849,2997
DownP,658,7161,867
DownR,819,9376,1062
Dund,2559,29057,3130
Epsm,712,6091,931
Extr,971,8903,1276
Fairy,1394,16897,1829
Fake,654,4574,853
FfosL,1340,9995,1717
Folk,661,5262,852
Font,1465,11926,1912
Gal,850,10400,1092
GLghs,311,2976,381
Good,1383,13830,1776
GowP,1181,14484,1465
Ham,1200,9733,1550
Hayd,2034,18292,2636
Here,550,5527,726
Hex,907,7923,1164
Hunt,1080,9452,1344
Kelso,841,7535,1059
Kemp,6367,62048,8101
Kilb,551,6673,674
Killar,771,8531,1016
Layt,54,517,67
Laytown,6,55,11
Leic,1909,16525,2468
Leop,1616,17449,2079
Lim,1290,15158,1673
Ling,6439,55919,8040
List,666,7633,830
Ludl,961,8792,1244
MrktR,1349,11241,1774
Muss,1761,15058,2211
Naas,1080,12410,1378
Navan,1218,15250,1601
Newb,2062,20853,2656
Newc,2326,22142,2946
Newm,2750,27547,3458
Newt,1158,10102,1489
Nott,1451,14257,1834
Perth,952,7752,1211
Plump,1015,7976,1327
Ponte,1075,9968,1374
Punch,1212,15607,1560
Redc,1276,13631,1615
Ripon,1044,9625,1322
Rosc,632,7670,814
Salis,1083,10024,1357
Sand,1656,14822,2124
Sedge,1168,9733,1512
Sligo,518,5505,641
Sthl,4438,37805,5687
Strat,1123,10202,1464
Taun,885,8204,1132
Thirsk,1061,11150,1385
Thurl,741,9172,971
Tipp,834,9482,1036
Towc,968,8846,1266
Tral,35,496,45
Tram,746,8271,945
Uttox,1628,15272,2153
Warw,1266,11682,1636
Weth,1135,10112,1486
Wex,737,8764,926
Winc,1018,8845,1307
Wind,1713,16391,2098
Wolv,6934,63606,8784
Worc,1310,12135,1696
Yarm,1517,12927,1911
York,1106,13367,1453

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