Backtesting irregularities
that’s where I was trying to come from last week, to spot a move all the indicators Bet Angel offer that are necessary I really think can actually be built into one indicator, I’m sure it’s possible, the problem then however is that it then compromises an edge for those who are able to read a market & it would undo several years of learning, to have 3 or 4 years under my belt suffering, sorry learning & then for others to be spoon fed an edge I would find most, shall we say.. irritating, so I can understand why an all in one built in indicator isn’t plausible.. or is it?ruthlessimon wrote: ↑Thu Jul 05, 2018 8:48 pmDo I really need this indicator? Why is this indicator so vital?
Talking of complicated, one day you should walk us through just what's going on with your charting Korattt (that's my kinda complex nightmare!)
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ShaunWhite
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- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
Korattt, I've spoken with people who have put every indicator from betfair and many others into machine learning software and I can tell you that a magic bullet indicator really doesn't exist. Even ai is a very poor substitute for experience.
If it was possible, why would anyone trade manually? We'd all just rent some time on Watson, get our algorithm, and go sit on a beach. Watson would certainly make my spreadsheets look like a flint axe.
We all know someone with the knowledge, the experience, the models and the substantial R&D budget. As far as I know he doesn't use this approach.
If it was possible, why would anyone trade manually? We'd all just rent some time on Watson, get our algorithm, and go sit on a beach. Watson would certainly make my spreadsheets look like a flint axe.
We all know someone with the knowledge, the experience, the models and the substantial R&D budget. As far as I know he doesn't use this approach.
Shaun,
what I find interesting is that there is another professional trader, (and we all know who), someone who I have respect for who runs a course and really only focuses on one edge, one method, one strategy, he does deviate from it from time to time but he likes one particular method, I know of people that have attended his course yet still are unable to execute his method.
What I’m getting at is this, what if everyone on here shared the edge I have learned, and I’m not talking about the one I’ve learned from BA Training day, would it escalate moves exponentially or would it nullify them?
what I find interesting is that there is another professional trader, (and we all know who), someone who I have respect for who runs a course and really only focuses on one edge, one method, one strategy, he does deviate from it from time to time but he likes one particular method, I know of people that have attended his course yet still are unable to execute his method.
What I’m getting at is this, what if everyone on here shared the edge I have learned, and I’m not talking about the one I’ve learned from BA Training day, would it escalate moves exponentially or would it nullify them?
Last edited by Korattt on Sun Jul 08, 2018 5:00 pm, edited 2 times in total.
assuming there was enough of you all more or less entering at a similar point using the same rationale and all exiting at a similar point using the same rationale, i reckon you would in effect be cutting your own throats because you would probably be providing a good oppourtinuity for anyone who can reasonably read the market, to see an exploitable anomaly.
THAT was the reply I was looking for, so why does the course that Steve Howe conducts get so many delegates & gets rave reviews?, is it because he has an unknown edge he gets in with before the edge he teaches kicks in to move the move on?to75ne wrote: ↑Sun Jul 08, 2018 4:55 pmassuming there was enough of you all more or less entering at a similar point using the same rationale and all exiting at a similar point using the same rationale, i reckon you would in effect be cutting your own throats because you would probably be providing a good oppourtinuity for anyone who can reasonably read the market, to see an exploitable anomaly.
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ruthlessimon
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Not necessarily true.
Let's then assume you setup a course to "read the market" - you've just caused the same problem, that your solution tried to provide.
i.e. Someone could make a course to "read the people who read the market"
How would you get around that?
but reading the market is in effect reading people.ruthlessimon wrote: ↑Sun Jul 08, 2018 5:14 pmNot necessarily true.
Let's then assume you setup a course to "read the market" - you've just caused the same problem, that your solution tried to provide.
i.e. Someone could make a course to "read the people who read the market"
How would you get around that?
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ruthlessimon
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But that's the job of any strategy
Let's take your exact words: "using the same rationale, i reckon you would in effect be cutting your own throats"
Market reading falls under that category - if enough people know how to do it properly
but the evidence on this forum (and this thread) would suggest that very few people can read the market consistantly accurately (fortunately).ruthlessimon wrote: ↑Sun Jul 08, 2018 5:42 pmBut that's the job of any strategy
Let's take your exact words: "using the same rationale, i reckon you would in effect be cutting your own throats"
Market reading falls under that category - if enough people know how to do it properly
mugsgame posted several vids on utube clearly demonstrating his ability to read markets and to very aggressively trade those markets he was reasonably sure he was able to predict the fav's likely direction using large stakes. inevitably he often closed out for decent greens and to his credit, he also showed his errors and occassional cockups and large reds.
he made it look quite easy, and i assume that is the attraction of his courses.
trading appears simple, it can only be easy, the price can stay the same, go up, go down, nothing else, 3 things nothingmore than that.
its not hard to imagine people seeing his vids and thinking along the lines, "if he can do that (which i have no doubt at all that he can), its not hard, so can i, how hard can it be, easy money to be made" and so on. the allure of easy money, slickish marketing, good old down to earth brummie geezer who appears to be your mate, etc, etc ,etc.
