Opinions on effect of (lack of) integrity in rides/races?

The sport of kings.
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stueytrader
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Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2015 6:47 pm

Been discussing this away from this forum, but what are people's views on the effect of dodgy rides/races on their trading activity? I think there's really three positions, but possible some combination of them:

Neutral: doesn't really matter if runners are trying in races, trading carries on.

Positive: sometimes it helps trading

Negative: nightmare not knowing who is plotted/non-trier etc

My personal view is hedging towards the 'neutral' answer for traders pre-race, but I'm not totally sure...be interested how others feel about this lovely aspect of the game we trade on.
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ANGELS15
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I must admit my main activity is offset betting rather than pure trading per se. However I would assume that for those who are trading they are reacting to the way the market is moving and placing their trades accordingly so I would have thought it really shouldn't matter why the odds are moving the way they are.

If anything bad/dishonset rides should affect someone like myself. However I must say in all honesty 99% of the time the horses perform the way I expect them to in the race. This doesn't mean I'm successful 99% of course. But an example would be that I expect a horse to front run and it does front run. However on this particular occasion it's odds don't shorten as much as I expect due to other horse/horses in the race showing improved form and travelling strongly so that even though my selection is running with credit I may have to trade out for less profit or a loss.

Since the birth of exchanges and particularly in the last 10 years the exchange markets are incredibly accurate as to what to make favourite.

You may occasionally get a poorly judged ride however there are other occasions when if a jockey tries to go for the rail and gets trapped he will be criticised however if the gap appeared he would be a genius.

Also what can be annoying for someone like myself is if I expect a horse to be a front runner but the trainer decides to instruct the jockey to hold it up, nut that's not neccesarily crooked.

By and large I honestly beleive the game is straight when you consider the sheer number of races in a season 10,000+? compared to when you witness a poor ride.
spreadbetting
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You'll never be privy to all the dodgy goings on in racing but thankfully neither are the other 99% we're getting our money from.
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bennyboy351
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Location: West Midlands, England.

spreadbetting wrote:
Mon Aug 27, 2018 1:15 pm
You'll never be privy to all the dodgy goings on in racing but thankfully neither are the other 99% we're getting our money from.
Surely there are no dodgy goings on in racing, I mean, its the sport of Kings! ;)

But then, I've seen several 'favourites' struggle(!) over the past few days.

IMHO, our dog's hind leg is strighter than horse racing/betting.

It has always been that way and will always be so - money is the root of all evil, etc, etc....... :)
stueytrader
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Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2015 6:47 pm

When I posted this I didn't think there would be any debate about whether there were some corrupt dodgy rides/races TBH. Rather, more interested in whether people consider it has any effect (either way) on their ability to trade for profits.

I'd disagree with one view above that dodgy rides are relatively rare - I think I see plenty every single day, and often in pretty much every race - though I know that is slightly subjective to judge at times.

I pretty much agree with the point above that 99% of punters have no clue, although the small %s that do know can swing markets pretty heavily at times too?

I think my own view is generally neutral for many trading sessions, but can haunt you on certain selections - those mad rapid drifts for example that really catch you out at times.
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ShaunWhite
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I disagree that 99% of punters don't know racing can occasionally be dodgy. Everyone who's had a losing bet has at some time or other questioned its integrity. In pre internet days when we all had to stand in the bookies all day, you heard little else.
stueytrader
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Tue Aug 28, 2018 1:05 pm
I disagree that 99% of punters don't know racing can occasionally be dodgy. Everyone who's had a losing bet has at some time or other questioned its integrity. In pre internet days when we all had to stand in the bookies all day, you heard little else.
I think the earlier point was the 99% would not know what was happening specifically, not that it was dodgy in general. Like you say, most punters guess that I would agree.
stueytrader
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So, generally speaking, could we take it that pre-race traders on here don't particularly view this as a big problem or issue for their profits?
Jukebox
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With so many people involved in bringing a horse to the finish line there are plenty who have a better idea than the average punter of a particular horses chance of winning a particular race. Did the horse eat well, travel well, perform well in excersises, was he just brought to this meeting because we were coming anyway and we split the costs between owners, do we even intend to win or have we got a longer term objective - not to mention a whole host of issues surrounding stablemates in the same race. In the end all the 'knowing' money in every race ends up in the market along with all the other money. Traders are mostly concerned with where the money is or isn't going to determine their trades. Does a trader need to worry if some of the volume is 'knowing' money or punter money? Its punters who care if their horse is going to win.
stueytrader
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Jukebox wrote:
Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:39 pm
With so many people involved in bringing a horse to the finish line there are plenty who have a better idea than the average punter of a particular horses chance of winning a particular race. Did the horse eat well, travel well, perform well in excersises, was he just brought to this meeting because we were coming anyway and we split the costs between owners, do we even intend to win or have we got a longer term objective - not to mention a whole host of issues surrounding stablemates in the same race. In the end all the 'knowing' money in every race ends up in the market along with all the other money. Traders are mostly concerned with where the money is or isn't going to determine their trades. Does a trader need to worry if some of the volume is 'knowing' money or punter money? Its punters who care if their horse is going to win.
That is a good overview of this area, I agree. In general for the trader maybe we don't need to know why money is arriving or drying up for specific selections, I would agree.

Are there never any occasions where this is detrimental though? E.g. you've planned your very nice swing trade, and it ends up swinging the opposite...?
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SeaHorseRacing
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It really depends on the trainer. As already stated. Some trainers will send 4/5 non triers at one track at one day. Simply because he can bill for travel expenses and make a nice tidy profit.
Whilst reducing handicap marks, trying jockeys, and learning more about a horse.

Depending on the trainer really. A smaller stable sending 4 horses to a track imo should be seen as maybe one hopeful runner.

But than again, a horse owned by say Godolphin being sent 300 miles is again not exact science because they can simply throw money at it.

From a trading perspective if I see any plots or non triers I will trade them early. Getting on night before or early morning and will look at a longer term swing trade.

10 mins pre off I don’t really need to know any of this and will trade the numbers really.
stueytrader
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Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2015 6:47 pm

SeaHorseRacing wrote:
Mon Sep 10, 2018 2:54 pm
It really depends on the trainer. As already stated. Some trainers will send 4/5 non triers at one track at one day. Simply because he can bill for travel expenses and make a nice tidy profit.
Whilst reducing handicap marks, trying jockeys, and learning more about a horse.

Depending on the trainer really. A smaller stable sending 4 horses to a track imo should be seen as maybe one hopeful runner.

But than again, a horse owned by say Godolphin being sent 300 miles is again not exact science because they can simply throw money at it.

From a trading perspective if I see any plots or non triers I will trade them early. Getting on night before or early morning and will look at a longer term swing trade.

10 mins pre off I don’t really need to know any of this and will trade the numbers really.
That seems like a possible example for my initial 2nd option: 'It can help my trading sometimes'

However, to do that successfully you need to be correct in the estimations for the selections of course....
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