Is this just part of the learning?

The sport of kings.
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ShaunWhite
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ruthlessimon wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 5:21 pm
IMO, the mentality can always be learnt (it's everywhere)
I agree with most of what you said but I disagree with the quoted bit and always will. Expecting 100% of 'flawed' people to be able to permenantly alter the fundamentals of their personality takes a big stretch of the imagination. Klingon logic about edges just doesn't cut it, and if it does for you then that's probably because of your pre-existing personality not something that's easily over come by listening to Brad Goodman.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=czFe4TP14MM
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ruthlessimon
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 5:36 pm
Expecting 100% of 'flawed' people to be able to permenantly alter the fundamentals of their personality takes a big stretch of the imagination
I'm constantly being told my personality isn't right, from all sides! Peter would call me flawed (& he has), Dallas would, SB would, Linus would, etc etc

But accepting that as fait accompli - to me - is a regression. & I'm honestly surprised more people don't have that view.

The person in the world with the best psychology (i.e. a bot) - is still limited by the quality of their edge. The only way for that person to improve is by improving the edge - which I believe - has a much higher ceiling than simply reading Trading in the Zone.

It's bloody difficult though!!
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ruthlessimon
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 5:36 pm
Expecting 100% of 'flawed' people to be able to permenantly alter the fundamentals of their personality takes a big stretch of the imagination
I would put myself in a very similar bracket to Jeff - & Peter probably would too.

The only difference - I don't think Jeff even had an edge - or understood his edge. I know this for a fact, because there were aspects of pre-race that he denied were useful - because he couldn't see it in his own data.

Now, I have a lot of respect for that. I far prefer someone to have principals that they can stick by (& Shaun you're one of em :) ) - than bending to wind & accepting/believing whatever TPTB say (without fully understanding it themselves).

For example, I only accepted race type was an important variable - when I saw it in my own data/analysis. Until that day, I would've been against race type - & I would cite my analysis (during that period of time - viewtopic.php?p=167463#p167463) - which someone who did understand how race type was an edge, had a chance to correct (i.e. "you need to look at it this way..") - that said; there's no way I'd post something like that publicly!

That is why Jeff failed imho.

Now I'm assuming the silver spoon wasn't forced down Jeff's throat. But if it was, he's the utter minority. Most people with a simple edge forced down their throats won't refute it!

P.S. Jeff if you're reading this, drop me a PM & I'll walk you through it - just so you can prove em wrong. It's all about edge, psychology 2nd. Missin' yah :)
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wearthefoxhat
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cookyweb wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 2:51 pm
Hi There,

I've been working on my Pre race trading following a couple of posts on this forum and trying to follow the advice given.

I've been working specifically on drifting horses as I noted this being an area where I seem to be much better, my results have definitely improved massively in the last month or so but I wanted to run something past you guys.

In the last week and a half I've been winning in around 80% of my trades, sometimes more. On Sunday I only had 2 losses out of 16 trades, then Monday to Wednesday evenings only 3 losses from 15.

However last night I just couldn't hit a winning trade, I felt a bit lost and like nothing I'd been doing was working, I lost 5 of 7 and lost everything I'd built up over the last week and a half.

So my question is, is that just how it goes in Trading at times? where you are using the same strategies but they just don't work, like an off day?

Its easy to think I'm on the wrong track just because of one bad day, but I really thought I'd turned a huge corner and now I feel a bit like it was just a fluke or a lucky run if that makes sense.

I'm just looking for some inspiration I guess.

Thank you

Cookyweb.
FWIW, when I have losing trade(s), I compliment the skill/success of the trader(s) that made a profit. (my loss). Essentially, I leave my ego at the door. There are better traders than me out there that can capitalise on my mistake(s), however, when I get it right, I'll pat myself on the back and accept my success and believe I'm learning and moving forward in the right direction.

In the early days, I recognised I needed a push in the right direction, so I attended PW's masterclass a while ago. This seemed to "unlock" some of the mystery and sorted the wheat from the chaff. It wasn't put on a plate, but there was enough good information on offer to help me focus in on the key profitable areas.

We all learn in different ways and at our own pace, try not to be too hard on yourself. Also try and enjoy the process. If it feels like a chore, take a break and come back to it another time.

I also found L2B trading (to liability) profitable for long periods before being undone by one or two results. I now focus more on B2L momentum trades as "punters" tend to like to latch onto a gamble in the old fashion way.
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Bog
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cookyweb wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 4:52 pm

I've been trading this afternoon and am currently 6 trades 6 wins and £5.21 up (I'm only using £10 stakes)
Cookyweb

Hi. Do you check your p & l often, after every race? Try to focus more on trading the right way all the time and focus less on how many races you won and how much you are up in a day. We need to think long term, in my opinion it's not important how many races you won in a day.

For me checking p & l too often it's not a good habit, you will put pressure on yourself to produce positive results and after a bad trade, if you are not prepared, you can lose control and start chasing losses.

Every race it's different, don't expect nothing from it, just trade how you normally trade and move on to the next one. Start from zero every race, don't bring your past results into the next race.

Have discipline, trust the process, be patient and good results will come.
cookyweb
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Hi Bog,

That’s soooo hard to do, but it’s something I’ve heard before and read on the forum.

I’m gonna be honest I struggle with it, but I’ve learned so much from you guys I’m going to turn my balance off the display today and just try to trade race on race from zero as you said.

Thanks everyone for the advice, every time I’ve posted I’ve had brilliant advice and really appreciate it

Cookyweb
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ruthlessimon
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cookyweb wrote:
Sun Oct 21, 2018 12:34 pm
Hi Bog,

That’s soooo hard to do, but it’s something I’ve heard before and read on the forum.
I implore you to track your trades thoroughly

For months I used to painstakingly trade this manually, only now have I finally managed to quantify it - & excel bluntly says: - no wonder you struggled, it's not really an edge. It's not quite random, but it's not quite profitable either.

That's a nightmare to pick up unless you track your trades religiously (which is very very hard to do trading manually)
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ShaunWhite
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cookyweb wrote:
Sun Oct 21, 2018 12:34 pm
I’m going to turn my balance off the display today and just try to trade race on race from zero as you said.
If you really want to forget the money and trade by just feeling the force, try turning off the P&L column on your ladder too.
JTEDL
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Trading using 'the force' haha :D is this part of the next update 1.52, along with video of Peter dressed up as yoda?
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Bog
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Ruthlessimon, how does it help tracking your trades after every race or knowing how much you are up? I find it as an distraction, it's just short term noise.

I don't track anything, I don't care how much I'm up/down in a day, how many races I won, percentages etc. I just trade every race from zero, knowing if I respect the rules all the time I will be fine! Maybe once a day I verify what is the bankroll, most of the time I verify once a week.

I did these changes because I had problems with accepting losses and chasing losses. My results improved.
ShaunWhite wrote:
Mon Oct 22, 2018 7:53 pm

If you really want to forget the money and trade by just feeling the force, try turning off the P&L column on your ladder too.
I don't know if you where serious or not, but I do just that hahha :mrgreen: I don't have p & l column.
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ruthlessimon
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Bog wrote:
Mon Oct 22, 2018 8:07 pm
Ruthlessimon, how does it help tracking your trades after every race or knowing how much you are up? I find it as an distraction, it's just short term noise.

I don't track anything, I don't care how much I'm up/down in a day, how many races I won, percentages etc. I just trade every race from zero, knowing if I respect the rules all the time I will be fine! Maybe once a day I verify what is the bankroll, most of the time I verify once a week.

I did these changes because I had problems with accepting losses and chasing losses. My results improved.
I'm not bothered about the short term either. The graph above was taken over a 3mth span. But I would've preferred to prove this trend of stagnation much earlier!

There's nothing wrong with your approach (if you're happy with your growth). But I always knew aspects of my trading were heinously inefficient (I absolutely believe, like gold, edges have a fineness component). Hence why I've become/became pretty focal, in a couple of data related threads - & so anti psychology. I see the benefits, but I prefer working on edge - learning from those better than me in that department

The problem I had (& kinda still do) - I actually really enjoy trading manually. But it's a "barrage of ideas", some purely quantitative, some purely qualitative. Without keeping check of each trade, it's very hard to see what's working longterm (especially qualitative). Because the p&l alone is very unreliable for a dodgy manual trader (i.e. mixing non-edges, with real edges - then calling everything semi-rosy under the umbrella of "discretion" - then just working on psychology to improve). It never sat well with me that approach.

What I'm doing atm, is an "early (although feels like a never ending ;) ) spring clean" - stripping back everything I can; build a much stronger quantitative base. Knowing that when I trade, I'm defo trading something that works - & could prove why, if pushed. Which currently I can only do on a hand-full of trades
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napshnap
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napshnap wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 4:07 pm
It can be variance, but it also can be that your strategy doesn't fit certain days of the week, daytime, types of race, venues and etcetera. I have to be very picky to make my employ strategy profitable.
Damn you autocorrector! Damn you!
Should be INPLAY, of course.
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napshnap
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Bog wrote:
Mon Oct 22, 2018 8:07 pm
Ruthlessimon, how does it help tracking your trades after every race or knowing how much you are up? I find it as an distraction, it's just short term noise.

I don't track anything, I don't care how much I'm up/down in a day, how many races I won, percentages etc. I just trade every race from zero, knowing if I respect the rules all the time I will be fine! Maybe once a day I verify what is the bankroll, most of the time I verify once a week.

I did these changes because I had problems with accepting losses and chasing losses. My results improved.
ShaunWhite wrote:
Mon Oct 22, 2018 7:53 pm

If you really want to forget the money and trade by just feeling the force, try turning off the P&L column on your ladder too.
I don't know if you where serious or not, but I do just that hahha :mrgreen: I don't have p & l column.
But you may constantly suck at certain venues or race types. How do you know if you don't track anything?
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ShaunWhite
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Bog wrote:
Sat Oct 20, 2018 6:59 pm

Hi. Do you check your p & l often, after every race?

We need to think long term, in my opinion it's not important how many races you won in a day.

For me checking p & l too often it's not a good habit, you will put pressure on yourself to produce positive results and after a bad trade, if you are not prepared, you can lose control and start chasing losses.

Every race it's different, don't expect nothing from it, just trade how you normally trade and move on to the next one. Start from zero every race, don't bring your past results into the next race.
There's nothing inherently wrong with updating your results at the end of every race. IF you are adding it to the chart of your ytd figures, not your daily figures. In fact I'd go as far as to say that entering your freak £100 loss into the annual stats and seeing what a small impact it has can help to remove the drama. You can't just erase the past but you can put it into context of the bigger picture.
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