Newcastle AW

[wearthefoxhat]

Can anyone make any sense of this track for trading (and/or punting)?

Moves just seem to have no relation to anything from my analysis.

Newcastle AW
Mid-High draw preferable for 5f, 6f,7f races.

An angle could be looking for something with fair early pace for a B2L approach, conversely, those low drawn, L2B.

[Naffman]

Newcastle seems to be a very hard surface too, horses that like a bit of cut there will struggle massively

[ruthlessimon]

Newcastle AW
Mid-High draw preferable for 5f, 6f,7f races.

An angle could be looking for something with fair early pace for a B2L approach, conversely, those low drawn, L2B.

That's an interesting shout, certainly one for the notebook

[stueytrader]

Thanks all for the very interesting replies.

It was just that I've always found Newcastle to be the track that is most likely to show heavy moves, which have no relation to the actual races run after the pre-market. Though that may just be in my sample (which is not complete).

It is an interesting question I believe, which become our favourite/least favourite tracks to play, and why that may be.

[stueytrader]

Can anyone make any sense of this track for trading (and/or punting)?

Moves just seem to have no relation to anything from my analysis.

Newcastle AW
Mid-High draw preferable for 5f, 6f,7f races.

An angle could be looking for something with fair early pace for a B2L approach, conversely, those low drawn, L2B.

Thanks for the ideas there, I would roughly agree with some of that in general - my problem is that I'm not really an inplay trader personally, though I agree there may be some ideas in that respect.

The odd thing I've found (as my above post) is that sometimes those that look like inplay BTLs, which I feel should shorten pre, actually drift heavy pre and then possibly shorten only when inplay - which for a pre-trader taking a loss can be rather frustrating!

[elofan0]

one of the good things about newcastle is its one of the four tracks that record sectional times in their results
as seen in this example on at the races past result of one of todays runners mambo dancer
http://www.attheraces.com/form-popup/ra ... id=1064588

[bobs71]

Newcastle is quite unique in the All weather world in that it is the only AW track that has a straight mile. That mile is quite testing , and rises around 31 feet from start to the finish line , with the majority of that incline (21 ft) coming between 3f out and the finishing line.

Newcastle straight.JPG

That uphill finish has a slowing effect on the times and last furlong sectionals are comparable only to Southwell (which has the slowest final sectionals of all AW tracks) - The other variable the track is prone to due to situation is wind , particularly strong westerly winds which blow right down the home straight into the faces of the runners. The clerk of the course James Armstrong is a decent guy (also covers Hexham over the jumps) and responds to any questions about the track through email or on twitter and usually posts up decent info about the tracked being worked on , wind speeds (he takes them with an anemometer) etc. The surface Tapeta is generally a fair compound but can tighten up over the winter and this can also have an effect on the times.
The track is not as front runner friendly as say Chelmsford or Southwell , and you see a lot of finishes decided well inside the last furlong.
Runstyle data / Std Final / Sectional Times attached

Newcastle Runstyle.PNG

Std Times.PNG

[bobs71]

One thing worth knowing about the track seeing that it shares the "same" surface as Wolverhampton - Tapeta
Horses running at Newcastle whose last race at Wolverhampton have a horrible record compared to the other AW tracks - punters might assume some correlation in surface type but historically since the track opened it is not there and if anything the reverse is true - they win as a group just over 8% and only Southwell is worse (Fibresand) - the reason for this is probably that the manufacturers of Tapeta (created by ex-trainer Michael Dickinson)are continually improving / upgrading the compound , so no two track layings are alike - Wolverhampton was done in 2014 and Newcastle in 2016. Whether this continues remains to be seen , although the chi-score is high enough in significance to believe it will.

Newcastle AW by Last race.PNG

The other thing is that Newmarket trained horses have a significant record at the track and a higher than average win , win/place % - considering the distance and round trip they have to travel. They win as a group around 20% of the time from a decent sample size and only lose around 3% to BFSP

Newcastle - Newmarket trained horses.PNG

[wearthefoxhat]

Newcastle is quite unique in the All weather world in that it is the only AW track that has a straight mile. That mile is quite testing , and rises around 31 feet from start to the finish line , with the majority of that incline (21 ft) coming between 3f out and the finishing line.Newcastle straight.JPG That uphill finish has a slowing effect on the times and last furlong sectionals are comparable only to Southwell (which has the slowest final sectionals of all AW tracks) - The other variable the track is prone to due to situation is wind , particularly strong westerly winds which blow right down the home straight into the faces of the runners. The clerk of the course James Armstrong is a decent guy (also covers Hexham over the jumps) and responds to any questions about the track through email or on twitter and usually posts up decent info about the tracked being worked on , wind speeds (he takes them with an anemometer) etc. The surface Tapeta is generally a fair compound but can tighten up over the winter and this can also have an effect on the times.
The track is not as front runner friendly as say Chelmsford or Southwell , and you see a lot of finishes decided well inside the last furlong.
Runstyle data / Std Final / Sectional Times attachedNewcastle Runstyle.PNGStd Times.PNG

Nice info bobs71!

[ruthlessimon]

I have to say Newcastle is interesting (I wish I knew why #reversible-losers)

Really does stick like a sore thumb on this strategy.

& as a bonus, the fact Windsor's top, almost certainly means it's correlated to one of Peter's strategies

[ShaunWhite]

I have to say Newcastle is interesting (I wish I knew why #reversible-losers)

You've got a "Newc" and a "Newcastle" in there Simon, makes it even more of a standout when they're summed.
Are these scaled according to how many races there were?

[ShaunWhite]

ditto Leic and Leicester, Kemp and Kempton, Wolv and Wolverhampton too....and Wind and Windsor.
I think you need and alphabetic sort first to get rid of the wrinkles.

Ling and Lingfield, Bri and Brighton.........is it deliberate?

[ruthlessimon]

You've got a "Newc" and a "Newcastle" in there Simon, makes it even more of a standout when they're summed.
Are these scaled according to how many races there were?

yeah I just noticed that too, similarly Windsor gets a boost. This is gonna take some grunt work to clean (a problem due to holes in the data.. )

That's a good shout, I'll add that metric - watch dis space

[ShaunWhite]

This is gonna take some grunt work to clean (a problem due to holes in the data.. )

Make sure you record all those find/replaces as a big fat macro....it can go in your data scrubbing toolbox then.

[SeaHorseRacing]

Newcastle is quite unique in the All weather world in that it is the only AW track that has a straight mile. That mile is quite testing , and rises around 31 feet from start to the finish line , with the majority of that incline (21 ft) coming between 3f out and the finishing line.Newcastle straight.JPG That uphill finish has a slowing effect on the times and last furlong sectionals are comparable only to Southwell (which has the slowest final sectionals of all AW tracks) - The other variable the track is prone to due to situation is wind , particularly strong westerly winds which blow right down the home straight into the faces of the runners. The clerk of the course James Armstrong is a decent guy (also covers Hexham over the jumps) and responds to any questions about the track through email or on twitter and usually posts up decent info about the tracked being worked on , wind speeds (he takes them with an anemometer) etc. The surface Tapeta is generally a fair compound but can tighten up over the winter and this can also have an effect on the times.
The track is not as front runner friendly as say Chelmsford or Southwell , and you see a lot of finishes decided well inside the last furlong.
Runstyle data / Std Final / Sectional Times attachedNewcastle Runstyle.PNGStd Times.PNG

How are you working out the increase in height in the track? Additionally, would love to have a go and doing so at other tracks.