Newcastle AW

The sport of kings.
User avatar
ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

ruthlessimon wrote:
Mon Oct 29, 2018 5:03 pm
I have to say Newcastle is interesting (I wish I knew why #reversible-losers)
You've got a "Newc" and a "Newcastle" in there Simon, makes it even more of a standout when they're summed.
Are these scaled according to how many races there were?
User avatar
ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

ditto Leic and Leicester, Kemp and Kempton, Wolv and Wolverhampton too....and Wind and Windsor.
I think you need and alphabetic sort first to get rid of the wrinkles.

Ling and Lingfield, Bri and Brighton.........is it deliberate?
Last edited by ShaunWhite on Mon Oct 29, 2018 5:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
ruthlessimon
Posts: 2094
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

ShaunWhite wrote:
Mon Oct 29, 2018 5:08 pm
You've got a "Newc" and a "Newcastle" in there Simon, makes it even more of a standout when they're summed.
Are these scaled according to how many races there were?
yeah I just noticed that too, similarly Windsor gets a boost. This is gonna take some grunt work to clean :roll: (a problem due to holes in the data.. ;) )

That's a good shout, I'll add that metric - watch dis space
User avatar
ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

ruthlessimon wrote:
Mon Oct 29, 2018 5:14 pm
This is gonna take some grunt work to clean :roll: (a problem due to holes in the data.. ;) )
Make sure you record all those find/replaces as a big fat macro....it can go in your data scrubbing toolbox then.
User avatar
SeaHorseRacing
Posts: 2893
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm

bobs71 wrote:
Wed Oct 24, 2018 3:39 pm
Newcastle is quite unique in the All weather world in that it is the only AW track that has a straight mile. That mile is quite testing , and rises around 31 feet from start to the finish line , with the majority of that incline (21 ft) coming between 3f out and the finishing line.Newcastle straight.JPG That uphill finish has a slowing effect on the times and last furlong sectionals are comparable only to Southwell (which has the slowest final sectionals of all AW tracks) - The other variable the track is prone to due to situation is wind , particularly strong westerly winds which blow right down the home straight into the faces of the runners. The clerk of the course James Armstrong is a decent guy (also covers Hexham over the jumps) and responds to any questions about the track through email or on twitter and usually posts up decent info about the tracked being worked on , wind speeds (he takes them with an anemometer) etc. The surface Tapeta is generally a fair compound but can tighten up over the winter and this can also have an effect on the times.
The track is not as front runner friendly as say Chelmsford or Southwell , and you see a lot of finishes decided well inside the last furlong.
Runstyle data / Std Final / Sectional Times attachedNewcastle Runstyle.PNGStd Times.PNG
How are you working out the increase in height in the track? Additionally, would love to have a go and doing so at other tracks.
User avatar
ruthlessimon
Posts: 2094
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

Made in quite a bit of haste, but i think it's right
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
ruthlessimon
Posts: 2094
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

Interesting that York is worse than Newcastle (avg p&l) - but York's sample was 4 races, which could be a factor.

Even so, for such a quality course, I'd expect it at least midway - not bottom!
User avatar
ruthlessimon
Posts: 2094
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

This has got me thinking.

The strategy above was a lay strategy (liveshow only)

I'm now going to look at a completely uncorrelated strategy (backing strategy) - but has a very similar p&l & trade frequency to the lay strat above.

I'm fascinated to see where Newcastle sits - if it's still one of the worst, there's gotta be an exploitable bias lurking
User avatar
ruthlessimon
Posts: 2094
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

ruthlessimon wrote:
Mon Oct 29, 2018 7:02 pm
I'm fascinated to see where Newcastle sits - if it's still one of the worst, there's gotta be an exploitable bias lurking
Got that wrong

But the AW argument certainly doesn't stack up, in terms of "impossible to trade" - maybe it's just down to the veteran traders not being able to deploy those 4fig stakes ;)

Windsor comes out 3rd - maybe Peter knows this one too 8-)
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
foxwood
Posts: 390
Joined: Mon Jul 23, 2012 2:54 pm

ruthlessimon wrote:
Mon Oct 29, 2018 7:02 pm
I'm fascinated to see where Newcastle sits - if it's still one of the worst, there's gotta be an exploitable bias lurking
Wind direction is also supposedly relevant at Newcastle - forecasts for tracks at http://www.myweather2.com/Horse-Racing/ ... harts.aspx

As soon as you work out what the edge was it will probably have vanished now you've publicised it so much :lol:
User avatar
ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

ruthlessimon wrote:
Mon Oct 29, 2018 7:27 pm
Got that wrong
I almost don't want to mention that a few of those places have a turf and an AW course. But not being a follower of racing, I don't know if the turf courses are just used for jumps.
User avatar
ruthlessimon
Posts: 2094
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

foxwood wrote:
Mon Oct 29, 2018 7:29 pm
As soon as you work out what the edge was it will probably have vanished now you've publicised it so much :lol:
Yeah...?? I've "publicised" so much, I (& you) don't even know the edge I've leaked :) I was waiting for the "is it real money" question !!

.. & if I've publicised a lot here, I could make a fortune selling shite menial trade advice, & mentaility ebooks (I've kept the proper secrets well under wraps) :mrgreen: Don't tempt me Fox!!!
User avatar
ruthlessimon
Posts: 2094
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

ShaunWhite wrote:
Mon Oct 29, 2018 7:56 pm
I almost don't want to mention that a few of those places have a turf and an AW course. But not being a follower of racing, I don't know if the turf courses are just used for jumps.
foxwood wrote:
Mon Oct 29, 2018 7:29 pm
Wind direction is also supposedly relevant at Newcastle - forecasts for tracks at http://www.myweather2.com/Horse-Racing/ ... harts.aspx
Ty for these insights though guys :)
ShaunWhite wrote:
Mon Oct 29, 2018 7:56 pm
I almost don't want to mention..
Savage; what else you hiding eh!! :mrgreen:
User avatar
ruthlessimon
Posts: 2094
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

Dallas wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 9:04 pm
Each AW meeting tends to be more volatile due to the lower lower-quality racing and liquidity,

there is much less info/data for traders and punters to base their decisions on, which can lead to more indecisiveness
Really frustrates me that post ;) - because I was looking a strategy today - & the turf courses are the weakest aspect - which means I'm missin' somethin'.

It's not the fact it's Turf - there's something else :x
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
foxwood
Posts: 390
Joined: Mon Jul 23, 2012 2:54 pm

ruthlessimon wrote:
Fri Nov 16, 2018 9:37 pm
It's not the fact it's Turf - there's something else :x
Sample size too small to be meaningful - although 36 out of 36 is worth a second look.

Idle thought - maybe on AW you are acting on the signature of bots for a low volume race - that should be exploitable !

However, as soon as you act on that and put money out for them you will probably change what they do so the signature will change - catch 22 :lol:
Post Reply

Return to “Trading Horse racing”