Why aren't BHA Handicaps improving

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Jukebox
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Joined: Thu Sep 06, 2012 8:07 pm

On any given day a look through the Handicap races and the SP's suggest that the market laughs at the official handicapping. And it isn't all due to how a horse looks in the parade ring or in the stall either - check the odds the night before and the laughing will have already started. It never seems to improve no matter how few horses in the race, we regularly see horses priced in the hundreds at one end and odds on at the other and the market continues to prove itself right and the handicappers wildly wrong. So for fun I ask: why aren't they improving?
weemac
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I think the BHA will be fully aware of the deficiencies of their handicapping methodology, but if every 10 runner handicap had a 6/1 fav and a 14/1 outsider (as should theoretically be the case), the betting public would desert the sport in droves. Joe Public wants to feel he's got a live chance of picking the winner and thus he wants a shortish priced favourite. So there appears to be some sort of complicit behaviour in maintaining the status quo.

But I've also noticed some astonishingly heavily backed horses recently winning in handicaps after a stable switch, following a spell of astonishingly heavily backed horses winning after a wind op, so the issue probably runs far deeper than simply to say the handicapper is getting things wrong. Stable connections know far more than the handicapper ever will, and the betting market ultimately reflects that knowledge. That's where the differential in pricing comes from. Just look at all those 9/1 (morning) to 33/1 (SP) drifters every day that are soundly beaten before the race is half-way run. As Barney Curley once replied when asked how he pulls off a gamble.....

"It's simple. I know something no-one else knows."

And probably the most basic premise is to fool the handicapper into forming the wrong impression from the very limited information at his disposal.
Jukebox
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Joined: Thu Sep 06, 2012 8:07 pm

If the runners all opened in the region of average odds and then were then jostled into their final positions by the market that would be one thing - but that isn't what happens. Instead the favourites tend to open as favorites and the outsiders open as outsiders and then the market jostles them into their final prices and positions. How is it that only the handicappers seem to be fooled?
Jukebox
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weemac wrote:
Wed Nov 28, 2018 1:07 am

But I've also noticed some astonishingly heavily backed horses recently winning in handicaps following a spell of astonishingly heavily backed horses winning after a wind op,
This might be due to the recent introduction of the requirement of wind ops to be mentioned on the racecard and the publicity surrounding it
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SeaHorseRacing
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My advice is to look into racing from a different perspective.

A handicap mark can only be given on what the horse has it’s shown not what it could show.

To change your thinking about racing look at it this way.

Tyson Fury v Deontay Wilder this weekend.

Wilder is favourite, however, if Tyson was to take this fight after he beat Klitchko he would be massively odds on.

When looking at racing you need to consider the variable before thinking about pricing a horse.

Switching trainers could be the difference in 10 lengths over the jumps.
Horses not race fit can improve 20 lengths.

Ofcourse inside information has its strengths.

A horse in a full workout routine will have a majority hard food base diet with a smaller amount of Hay.
But a horse in a light workout will be consuming more hay then hard food.

This is why forgiving a poor performance is so important to making racing pay.

It’s much easier to pick horse racing winners or correctly working out there fitness, preferences then using Handicap ratings.

Imo the time to start considering handicap ratings is when a horse is dropping a lot over time or when a horses rating has increased significantly... this is generally the only time a handicap rating really has an effect.

When you looking at a race when the bottom horse is rated 20 less the bottom weight can still win if everything fits.

If the horse is young or fairly new to racing. Don’t even consider its rating. Absolutely pointless.

I have mentioned this before but as I have a 4 year qualification on equine...

A horse can only maintain peak performance for an average period of 12 weeks.

A class horse can always perform, but a big stuffy horse may only show form for 8 weeks at a time.
When pricing a race, particular a handicap consider these options.

Is this horse always running to form? If so, he’s a real honest horse.
If not, why not? Could he be a horse with problems, does he show periods of form.

What if the horse has improved up the ranks on all of its last 5 starts... and I still don’t think he’s race fit? That’s a well handicapped horse..

All these considerations the BHA cannot and are not allowed to consider these things.

Another reason horses get bet by inside information and don’t win is because they are a dishonest horses.

Take for example, one of those skilled keepie uppy footy guys you see on tv. All the skill... but never cut it a s a pro.

There’s a lot of racehorses who show tremendous form at home. Ask some trainers, your find some say they have horses train and race faster then there superstars but at the racetrack can’t even make it into the finish.
There’s a lot of racehorses about that do this, and a lot of gambles do come on these types.

A horses preference can change over night.

Take for example: if a horse has been running over 7 furlongs for the majority of his life. His handicap mark will probably be very efficient. But what you find is this horse on numerous occasions has tried a mile + and has shown no decent form.
A horse preferences can change over night.
If the horse has aged, changed shape moved trainers the horse may have a new preference.
The best tell tell signs are changes to the horses racing pattern. Horse who run over shorter distances prefer to race weekly. But a horse running over 1m4f usually prefer to run every 30-50 days.

Back to boxing... there is 0 point me fighting a heavyweight if I have been training, dieting for a fight against a welterweight.
However, if I made changes to my diet and training, I could potentially be a better boxer at heavy weight.

Take Mark Johnston for example, the majority of his horse run every few days... there is absolutely 0 point stepping a horse up in trip of the horse isn’t allowed time to improve or take to it.

If you see a horse has tried a new distance but running the same break pattern, you could argue he won take it. But if you find a horse who all off a sudden starts running with a 30 day break between its running, you could make a strong argument this horse now likes a new distance.

The point is some horses are trained differently depending on there preference. A lot of trainers will train there sprinters over hurdles as it’s the best training method for developing this string quarters.
However a horse who races at a mile wouldn’t be trained like that as they need to develop speed and stamina.

Additionally there are some very good trainers and some very poor trainers so needs researching.

Anyway, so my point on the matter is the BHA at this current time couldn’t really do more they do under the current rules.
Jukebox
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Joined: Thu Sep 06, 2012 8:07 pm

SeaHorseRacing wrote:
Wed Nov 28, 2018 11:47 am


Anyway, so my point on the matter is the BHA at this current time couldn’t really do more they do under the current rules.

My point is we expect the market to be moved by all the variables including connections 'special' insights - but what we see consistently is that when the markets open and therefore before the money has entered that the market makers et al have already scoffed at the handicaps.

The current rules are their own rules and they are meant to have a purpose which they never even get close to achieving - so why don't they ever improve?
weemac
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Joined: Mon Sep 16, 2013 8:16 pm

Because they have no incentive to improve. The status quo is just fine and dandy for everyone.
vankancisco
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I think there's a big difference between the handicap and the market and to compare them as competing entities is a mistake. The handicap serves the market and enables a structure to exist. It's not the job of the handicapper to ensure a horse is in prime condition, predict the going and pace or take note of the jockey as well as trainer form and any amount of other factors. That's left to the market and so it should. I'd also suggest that price makers do take note of the handicap. Pattern class races generally stack up really well.
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wearthefoxhat
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At the time of writing, there is a team of 12 handicappers working with the BHA; Phil Smith is the Head of Handicapping while Dominic Gardiner-Hill has the Deputy Head of Handicapping role. There is a separate team for Flat and Jump events although certain team members work in both departments.

For me, that in itself highlights an issue with the system. I can imagine that each element has a computerised/AI solution attached to it, but their hands are tied if the computer flags up a horse with 20lbs in hand!

There-in lies an opportunity to produce your own ratings and if you think the dirty dozen have it wrong....... ;) :D
StellaBot
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