Most followed horse racing tipster

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MickeyFinn
Posts: 3
Joined: Mon Dec 24, 2018 2:11 pm

Hi,

I am not from the UK so I dont have a good sense who could possibly be the most followed horse racing tipster there.

What do you guys think?

I have heard Hugh Taylor and Tom Segal have a huge following because they post free tips.

Are there any paid tipsters who have a massive following? I heard RacingAnalyst has 1200 paying subscribers.
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firlandsfarm
Posts: 2688
Joined: Sat May 03, 2014 8:20 am

Never forget … free advice is worth exactly what you pay for it! Making a profit is not all about picking winners: a monkey with a pin will pick winners because there is a reason why a horse is priced at 100/1 and it's not because it will never win that race. It's because if the race was run 101 times it would win once (on average).

The trick to selecting winners and returning a profit is not the picking of them it's the picking of Value. It's finding the runners where their price is better than their chance … e.g. finding 6/1 selections who's chance of winning is 5/1. Now, one of the main factors affecting price is the flow of money and the balancing of the book … the more money staked on a selection the lower the price so tipsters are always fighting their own success. A good tipster gets a good following, resulting in their selections being heavily backed, resulting in the price coming down, resulting in the disappearance of any Value! This is why some of the more successful tipsters limit the number of subscribers to their service. And don't be surprised that bookies receive the tips of the most successful punters and build that into their pricing.

This is one reason why a successful 'free' tipster doesn't stay successful for long. Too many subscribers remove any value from their bets. The best tipster is a tipster who limits their subscriber list and makes a profit for the lucky ones on their list. And let's face it, the tipster has to produce sufficient profit for you to justify their fee … I would happily pay £100p.m. to a tipster who makes me £1,000p.m. profit than one who charges £10p.m. but only makes me £100p.m. profit.

Choosing which tipsters to follow is a study. Look at their claimed results and remember they are only claimed even if they say they are proofed by a third party. Ask the proofer what they are actually proofing. For example I once ask the Racing Post about their proofing service and was told they could only confirm that the selection had been submitted to them for proofing. They could not confirm the odds and they could not confirm the list of results contained every selection proofed. So even proofed selections could be represented at higher odds to give a false impression of value and some 'proofed' selections could be left out of the results to reduce losses! Yes, it's a dodgy business, caveat emptor.
CallumPerry
Posts: 575
Joined: Wed Apr 19, 2017 5:12 pm
Location: Wolverhampton

The problem is, many label themselves as professional tipsters and I am convinced at least 95% are indeed monkeys with spinning wheels behind a computer screen. Would not give them a penny. You're better off scraping data sites and making your own models or just straight trading.

The only reason I'd look at big tipsters is to see who they are tipping and try to get on a big swing nice and early. If they have a big following then you can be sure there will be some movement in the market.
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Derek27
Posts: 23477
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

I think the OP might be looking for a popular tipster from a trading point of view rather than to back the selections?

When I first started trading I paid more attention to tipsters as a guide to where the money might go, but I'd look at how well a horse has been tipped across the board, not one particular tipster, as many of the newspaper tipsters have followings.

Having said that, bookies used to be fearful of Pricewise (Tom Segal) and limit stakes to £20 due to his success or following but I don't know if that's still the case.
Banthorpe
Posts: 74
Joined: Mon Aug 06, 2012 1:40 pm

A new one I have come across although only just started so not a long record but guess everyone has to start somewhere is backforprofit.wordpress.com or has his selections on twitter at the same name. Maybe worth a look. Its free at the moment but think it is going to a paid subscription service shortly.
MickeyFinn
Posts: 3
Joined: Mon Dec 24, 2018 2:11 pm

Thank you for your answers guys.

I am looking to back massively tipped horses one day before the race and then lay them off on the day of the race.

I know there wont be enough liquidity in the markets 1 day before and you could easily get gubbed by traditional bookmakers.

There is a bookie in Eastern Europe who accepts large bets on UK Horse Racing in cash. So there is no risk of getting limited.

Would you say the Racing Post and At the Races tipsters have the most effect on the early prices?
spreadbetting
Posts: 3140
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

MickeyFinn wrote:
Tue Jan 08, 2019 12:32 pm

There is a bookie in Eastern Europe who accepts large bets on UK Horse Racing in cash. So there is no risk of getting limited.

A cash only east european bookie who won't limit you , I think if you end up taking them to the cleaners, being limited will be the least of your worries :lol:
JTEDL
Posts: 536
Joined: Wed Aug 23, 2017 2:21 pm

Not something I take notice of, but could always follow the herd and look at websites like olbg or gg.com for most tips and also 'today's naps' certain horses will be tipped by a lot. Not saying the idea will work though...
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wearthefoxhat
Posts: 3207
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

MickeyFinn wrote:
Tue Jan 08, 2019 12:32 pm
Thank you for your answers guys.

I am looking to back massively tipped horses one day before the race and then lay them off on the day of the race.

I know there wont be enough liquidity in the markets 1 day before and you could easily get gubbed by traditional bookmakers.

There is a bookie in Eastern Europe who accepts large bets on UK Horse Racing in cash. So there is no risk of getting limited.

Would you say the Racing Post and At the Races tipsters have the most effect on the early prices?

You could use the racing post race-cards on-line overnight and note the most tipped horses, 10+ in any one race (I think the max is 14).

Todays are/were...

Ayr 2.00 Las Tunas
Bangor 2.15 Collooney
Ayr 3.10 Cornborough (drifted to 3/1)
Bangor 3.25 Two For Gold
Newcastle 4.10 Papparazzi
Newcastle 5.45 Set Piece
Newcastle 6.45 Lorna Cole

From a punting perspective, most bookies would accept a chunky bet on any of these, due to lower liabilities.
From a trading perspective, if they drift, they drift a lot and quite often get beaten. You can set up a trading plan quite easily on that info alone.
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johnsheppard
Posts: 283
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:00 am
Location: Cairns Australia

Hello there,

I am not from the UK either, I am from Australia and have recently been researching a similar approach.

I would guess the most followed tipster in Australia is Tom Waterhouse ....

My research so far is that a good proportion of of his early mail picks will shorten. I am only a few weeks into analyis though as his back data is not available...His other stuff I suspect, the more heavily subscribed tips are released too close to the off to have a significant effect. However, I am yet to analyse that data..

This early mail strategy is only as good as the tipster however...the later mail stuff hinges on how large a subscriber base is...

If anyone would be interested in discussing this strategy in the Australian market, I would be keen on it. (Not that I want to hyjack this thread). I am interested in the general principle of it...

Thanks
ijcooper67
Posts: 20
Joined: Sun Jul 23, 2017 3:39 pm

Slightly off-topic, but I rather like napchecker.com which shows which tipsters have tipped which selections.
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