Which strategy to start with?

The sport of kings.
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ShaunWhite
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johnsheppard wrote:
Thu Feb 14, 2019 11:11 pm
I am sure the magic recipie is here, and I will search for it.
There won't be anything that is prescriptive to the point of being an out of the box success, but there's a huge amount that will enable you to create your own recipie.
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ShaunWhite
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arbitrage16 wrote:
Fri Feb 15, 2019 9:55 am
I think there is a particular irony here, making an outlandish statement about how essential data is to success....based on a data set of (perhaps) one successful trader?
There are many people for whom data is essential, and many others for whom it's not.
arbitrage16 wrote:
Fri Feb 15, 2019 9:55 am
OP - You have to change as a person in order to succeed at trading as the most important factor to get right is mindset. (source: 'one of the best pre-race traders in the world')
That's simply not true.
You only need to change your personality and mindset if you choose a style of trading that doesn't suit your existing personality and mindset. That 'you have to change' or more importantly 'you didn't change' is a convenient and suitably vague excuse for someone failing, when perhaps the real reason is that they've been steered towards an inappropriate method or not fully understood the fundamentals of what they're doing.

What's easier, to change your personality, or to change your method?

Should a technically competant person who enjoys maths puzzles, but has adhd and dislikes sport trade manually? No.
Should a focused disciplined lover of sport who doesn't know one end of a SQL database from another trade automation? No.

Swap roles and the need for psycological reprogramming becomes unnecessary. Even people who alledge to have changed their core modus operandi still seem to have personalities affected by their own personal backstory, have they changed or do they just think they've changed? Being 'one of the best pre-race traders in the world' doesn't automatically make you the best teacher, anymore than being the best plumber in the world does. Understand who you are and what suits you, don't just try and emulate someone else who's successful and attempt to change your personality to become them.
Last edited by ShaunWhite on Fri Feb 15, 2019 3:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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brimson25
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Also, don't:

1. Spend all morning feeling unwell.

2. Convince yourself it will probably be ok.

3. Trade, while feeling ill.

4. Lose, feel worse.

:(

(Serious point is - this isn't something most people can do at 60% of their normal best. I can't! If you're not right, just leave it alone.)
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ruthlessimon
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arbitrage16 wrote:
Fri Feb 15, 2019 9:55 am
I think there is a particular irony here, making an outlandish statement about how essential data is to success....based on a data set of (perhaps) one successful trader?

OP - You have to change as a person in order to succeed at trading as the most important factor to get right is mindset. (source: 'one of the best pre-race traders in the world')
Data used incorrectly is very dangerous

There are plenty of examples of it not working - it's not a magic bullet. But in an industry where secrets won't be shared - we need an objective way to find them. I used to watch hrs & hrs & hrs of videos to try & find em - what a waste of time -> when Excel can rifle through most stuff in seconds (what happens if I just back hcaps, what happens if I just back 2.0 runners?)

Part of me actually says, "why are you advocating data, stfu" ;)

People guard their spreadsheets with their life!

If I broke into BA HQ, I'm nicking the memory sticks, not Peter's psychology notes, but that's just me :)
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ShaunWhite
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ruthlessimon wrote:
Fri Feb 15, 2019 3:09 pm
But in an industry where secrets won't be shared
Exactly, and that's why people only sell training in 'manual' techniques, where it's a whole world of fuzzy logic and psychological your-fault-not-mine pitfalls, instead of teaching quantative methods whereby a sucessful pupil will actually jeopardise their edge.
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ruthlessimon
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Fri Feb 15, 2019 4:05 pm
Exactly, and that's why people only sell training in 'manual' techniques, where it's a whole world of fuzzy logic and psychological your-fault-not-mine pitfalls, instead of teaching quantative methods whereby a sucessful pupil will actually jeopardise their edge.
Exactly :D

Let's go on a treasure hunt

Author 1: "The treasure is in the woods"
Student: "How do you define woods? Where do the woods end? Do clearings count? So not on a fire-road? Up a tree?"
Author 1: "Lots of what ifs, take my psychology course"

Author 2: "The treasure is buried at: 41°24'12.2"N 2°10'26.5"E.
Student: "Thanks"
Author 2: "Np ;) "

The perfect educator, gets that balance right. To much of either is bad

I do luv these debates though :D
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Euler
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The curious thing is, that I have found that most people get a bit confused if you lay out a path for them and describe things in detail, but ask them to walk it.

However, it seems 99% of people will jump in with both feet if you just give them a "make a million button". But as we all know you need to be in that 1% that can see through that. So I don't present information like that, but often get a critical response for doing so. Whereas you see people getting away with what lets fact is, is complete BS.

However, I've come to realise that's part of the market. People making themselves look experts so people buy from them only to lead the purchasers into the market like sheep to the slaughter, but there is little we can do about it. Ultimately that is where a fair bit of profit comes from. It's an uncomfortable feeling, but at least if you represent things fairly you can hold your held up with the knowledge that you did actually tell them so!
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ShaunWhite
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eightbo wrote:
Fri Feb 15, 2019 9:11 pm
Trader Dante is a legend have seen his vids and periscopes many times over.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uzkc-qNVoOk
I hope eightbo won't mind me moving this link to this thread. I watched (most of) it, at first I thought here we go again, another sweary billy big bollocks, but there's a lot of truth in a lot he says. Different people respond to different type of delivery so if you like marmite then it might be worth a listen. From here https://youtu.be/Vy1_URi88eE?t=960 for about a minute really made me smile.
arbitrage16
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ShaunWhite referencing Akala, the same guy who got out-manoeuvred in a debate by Tommy Robinson...not a good look.

Not sure where the idea that secrets aren't shared has come from, probably the same point of fear from which people tell themselves that the reason they aren't going to find a mentor to help them on this path is because they 'like to figure it out themselves' adding years and X amount of £££ onto their learning costs. It's fear, pure and simple, fear of getting ripped off and fear of realising that what they've been doing for the past X years has been completely off base.

Wherever there is money to be made, around that watering hole will be a whole band of different animals, all trying to take a sip, or take a chunk out of the other animals trying to take a sip. It doesn't follow that every trading educator is a crook, which is the image they have on here, one which is completely bogus. Part of black swan theory applies here.

TraderDante seems like a good guy, very sharp, but what he's talking about there is financial trading, and I see a lot of sports traders trying to attach themselves to the same ideas, because financials are so much sexier than sports trading. The idea that sports trading is 'insanely hard work' is just nonsense.

Financial trading is complex and difficult. Sports trading is simple, but not easy. The reason it isn't easy is because human brains are effectively the worst machine imaginable for trading. The reason you do stupid things that work against your own self interest is because your subconscious is working on ego-protection, and that's what trades, until you learn to control it, which necessitates GROWTH i.e. changing as a person.
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Thebest147
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I don't think it matters so much what strategy you use, I my opinion you need to learn how to manage your trade when In a trade, it's better to wish you were in a trade,then wishing you were out of one, tick size is another option that way as long as you have a strike rate off 57,% then you are in profit 👊
stueytrader
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Euler wrote:
Fri Feb 15, 2019 9:44 pm
Whereas you see people getting away with what lets fact is, is complete BS.

However, I've come to realise that's part of the market. People making themselves look experts so people buy from them only to lead the purchasers into the market like sheep to the slaughter, but there is little we can do about it. Ultimately that is where a fair bit of profit comes from. It's an uncomfortable feeling, but at least if you represent things fairly you can hold your held up with the knowledge that you did actually tell them so!
An uneasy truth even when we talk and discuss with one another on here too? ;)

I've often pondered the equation for forums (not just here of course) in betting or trading. Are we discussing with 'the enemy' if we help each other out, and do we actually rely on some traders/bettors being poor?

Or, do we all get stronger together, in places like this...? An interesting issue for sure. I'll be positive and hope towards the latter.... :D
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ShaunWhite
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arbitrage16 wrote:
Sat Feb 16, 2019 8:31 am
ShaunWhite referencing Akala, the same guy who got out-manoeuvred in a debate by Tommy Robinson...not a good look.
:D we prob shouldn't go there arb. We could debate our differences all day long but that would bore other people rigid. Vive la difference. I wasn't promoting a political doctrine just finding a tune with a lyric the summed up my feeling about how you MUST change. Neither of them know f-all about trading and I think you'll agree that anything else they think is totally irrelevant here.

I agree for the most part about the sport/financial differences, I've made several posts about how different they are and the false attachments people make for the sake of appearing more 'sophisticated'. The parralels are in the way neither is a get rich scheme and some of the psych if that's your thing, even though personally I'm not big into psych anymore, having spent a long time looking into it and realising the problems usual lay in the lack of real edge rather than a need to be Zen-like.
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ruthlessimon
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arbitrage16 wrote:
Sat Feb 16, 2019 8:31 am
Sports trading is simple, but not easy.

TraderDante seems like a good guy, very sharp, but what he's talking about there is financial trading, and I see a lot of sports traders trying to attach themselves to the same ideas, because financials are so much sexier than sports trading. The idea that sports trading is 'insanely hard work' is just nonsense.
I absolutely get what you mean, I agree :)

But, when we just dig a little bit deeper - there appear to be some weird cool patterns (seemingly everywhere), that are missed, if we look "too simply"

For example the race just gone 16:40 @ Kemp

I reckon Peter et al made 30 ticks+ on that market; but being able to capture those 30ticks required a very specific strategy, with clear technical definitions. A strategy designed specifically for such a market
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to75ne
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ruthlessimon wrote:
Sat Feb 16, 2019 5:07 pm
I absolutely get what you mean, I agree :)

But, when we just dig a little bit deeper - there appear to be some weird cool patterns (seemingly everywhere), that are missed, if we look "too simply"

For example the race just gone 16:40 @ Kemp

I reckon Peter et al made 30 ticks+ on that market; but being able to capture those 30ticks required a very specific strategy, with clear technical definitions. A strategy designed specifically for such a market
[/quote]

did you not capture some of those 30 odd ticks ?
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ShaunWhite
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I'd agree about it not being 'insanely' difficult but when only 5% make something, 1% make good money, and 0.01% become wealthy, then it's certainly not easy.
(percentages purely anecdotal)
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