In play liquidity.

[globi166]

Hi all I have been using dob strategy for a while now, and started wondering if day of the week matters a lot? Dont have much data so I cant be sure if I would be better off dobbing only fri to sun rather then every day. Any suggestions?

[Trading96]

I find it's more the quality of racing that determines the in play liquidity rather than the day, although those two are linked somewhat.

[Euler]

About 20% of the total traded is inplay so it rises and falls with the pre-off volume.

[globi166]

So its one of those yes and no answers lets say that we might have race on Monday , and then by by magic the same race will appear on Saturday is there a chance that same horse will shorten in price 50% on Saturday instead of 20% on Monday ? In play price movement seems a bit crazy and fast so Im not sure if it reflects true chances of a horse winning or is just rush of volume with not very accurate reflection of IP chances ?

[ShaunWhite]

As you say the fluctuations you see often don't reflect the true chance of winning. I wouldn't get too caught up on 'rush of volume' as every bet needs two sides and volume on its own isn't an indication of direction. It's also not that much of a shock absorber vis a vis restraining prices. If there's a value bet sat waiting, then 10 grand will go almost as easily as 10 quid. Not everyone out there plays with pocket change.

[Trading96]

So its one of those yes and no answers lets say that we might have race on Monday , and then by by magic the same race will appear on Saturday is there a chance that same horse will shorten in price 50% on Saturday instead of 20% on Monday ? In play price movement seems a bit crazy and fast so Im not sure if it reflects true chances of a horse winning or is just rush of volume with not very accurate reflection of IP chances ?

It's hard to explain but its kind of a fastest finger first game, where accuracy isn't too important.

By that I mean if you have a market where the horses odds are at 2.00, and something material happens that shortens the horses fair price to 1.75. They'll be backers in the market looking to take advantage, but...

Speed is so important that its hard to quantify exactly what the true price should be in a reasonable time frame, so in a rush, someone may take all the money sitting in the market down to 1.60.

That backer still makes money, because their average back price will be approx 1.80.

But the layer at 1.6 is also getting value from that backer.

In a high quality race more money sits in the market so it's harder to move the price that far.