Races with two clear favourites

The sport of kings.
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johnsheppard
Posts: 283
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:00 am
Location: Cairns Australia

Hello there,

I have seen people around the forums state that typically when you have a horse race with two clear favorites you tend to get prices change like a piston. (When one favourite begins to shorten typically the second favourite will lengthen and vice versa). Or in other words, lets say for example, say we have a two horse race. That's it, just two horses. Presuming the book percentage stays at 100% you'll get a direct correlation... if one horse goes down, the other one will go up.

This seems logical to me, and I have watched and seen this happen, however, I am stumped for how it can help me.

It doesn't really help me spot WHEN the trend will change direction. Which, is sort of the most important part. One presumes there are some other things to watch for. Can anyone give me some hints as to what that is? or is this sort of things just something I can use to give a little bit of weight to other indicators (e.g like support and resistance peaks/troughs)?

Thank you kindly for any thoughts
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ShaunWhite
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Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

I think the theory is that you can use indicators on either to anticipate a counter move on the other.

Eg you may have an open position on #1 and signs you should exit aren't just signalled on your runner, they might be showing on #2 first....or on both as double confirmation. In an evenly spread market, an indication on one might be countered on any of them, or by a very small amount on all of them.

Not my thing though so I might be wrong, but it seems reasonable to assume that.
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ruthlessimon
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Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

ShaunWhite wrote:
Wed May 22, 2019 3:39 pm
I think the theory is that you can use indicators on either to anticipate a counter move on the other.
Makes sense; but given the context of the thread, & your explanation , how do we explain this post?

viewtopic.php?p=131123#p131123

Cos a lot of traders will label runner correlations as “fools gold” - & given Euler’s opinion, maybe they’ve got a case
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dldtaylor
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Joined: Fri May 26, 2017 8:26 pm

I would suggest watch the bids and offers at the centre of the two markets as they both reach a potential retracement point. If, for example, the horse you are backing has a proportionately higher WOM on the back side than the other horse has on the lay side, then hold your position in anticipation of a further push down. If not, consider closing. Momentum's 'fuel' is WOM. Without it your trade is in the lap of the gods.
eightbo
Posts: 2154
Joined: Sun May 17, 2015 8:19 pm
Location: Malta / Australia

Because the price will be instantly reflected in the other (book will stay near 100%), you'll only ever be late to the party so regardless of when you open your trade you'll still be speculating.

Here's something you can try though:
Back both → Wait for a winner to emerge → Close trade on loser → Add to remaining position (optional)
If they both look weak lay instead
Emmson
Posts: 3363
Joined: Mon Feb 29, 2016 6:47 pm

eightbo wrote:
Mon Jun 10, 2019 10:15 pm
Because the price will be instantly reflected in the other (book will stay near 100%), you'll only ever be late to the party so regardless of when you open your trade you'll still be speculating.

There are some doubts whether that is the case or was always the case JollyGreen (TWICE) on this forum says there is often a delay.

Here is one of those instances, 2nd post in this thread

viewtopic.php?f=5&t=8541
Last edited by Emmson on Mon Jun 10, 2019 10:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
eightbo
Posts: 2154
Joined: Sun May 17, 2015 8:19 pm
Location: Malta / Australia

I suppose you can try if there's enough slack in the book
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