Hi everyone,
I am thinking of using a new strategy and need your advice.
Basically I need to calculate if it will be profitable and don’t know how to do it.
Example of outcome:
if the horse wins = -£2.50
if the horse comes 2nd or 3d = +£2
if the horse doesn’t place nor win = 0.00
Will that be profitable long term?
Seems to me like it will, because there are 2 chances to win and only 1 chance to lose.
The loss is little bigger and that makes me cautious.
Would appreciate your thoughts.
Many Thanks
Will that work?
If I understood you correctly, dont think that reasoning makes sense.
It's a matter of (% chance to win * profit if win) - (%chance to lose * loss if lose)
just because there are more ways your strategy could win doesnt mean a) there's a higher chance of winning over all and b) that your strike rate outweighs your losses
i.e. you could have a strike rate of 99% but that 1% loss will outweigh all your profit and lead to an overall loss. Hope that makes sense.
It's a matter of (% chance to win * profit if win) - (%chance to lose * loss if lose)
just because there are more ways your strategy could win doesnt mean a) there's a higher chance of winning over all and b) that your strike rate outweighs your losses
i.e. you could have a strike rate of 99% but that 1% loss will outweigh all your profit and lead to an overall loss. Hope that makes sense.
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ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
If the probablity of a horse finishing in any given position was equal then it would. But you don't give any info about how you make sure you're not just picking lots of winners, or picking horses that don't win but are rarely placed.
sa7med's formula is what you need and it uses that crucial %chance to win/lose figure.